Can Mexico advance from World Cup Group C? Draw vs Poland shows one key issue remains

On the field and in the stands, the evening belonged to Mexico at the 2022 FIFA World Cup. On the scoreboard, however, they were forced to share.

El Tri left Stadium 974 with a 0-0 draw despite an impressive, almost dominant performance against Poland and world superstar Robert Lewandowski. It was a solid result for both teams, but each would have desperately wanted to leave with a victory given that heavy Group C favorite Argentina lost earlier in the day.

“We deserved to win the match,” Mexico head coach Tata Martino told reporters.

Mexico and Poland now stand tied for second behind surprising Saudi Arabia, but each still has to face Lionel Messi and his compatriots before the group stage is completed. The Argentines are going to pursue victory with a fury in their game Saturday against El Tri.

Having limited Lewandowski’s impact to virtually nothing beyond drawing a penalty and failing to convert, Mexico will now be forced to control the broader force provided by Messi in what is his final World Cup.

In that sense, this could have been viewed as an excellent performance, but a deficient result.

DECOURCY: Mexico player ratings vs. Poland

Mexico can’t assume a victory over Saudi Arabia in the final group game, not after what happened in Group C on Tuesday. El Tri almost certainly will need those three points, and then there’s the matter of Saturday’s game against the Argentines. 

Mexico and Brazil are the only nations to make the knockout round at the past seven World Cup tournaments. El Tri fans are obsessed with reaching that “fifth game” — the quarterfinal — after each of the previous seven ended in the Round of 16. But you can’t get to the fifth game if you don’t reach the fourth.

“Today’s result does not change what we have planned against Argentina,” Martino said. “Now there will be two finals for each of the members of the group.” 

Memo Ochoa is Mexico’s hero

When a goalkeeper dives in the same direction as a penalty taker sends his kick, the common expression employed is that the keeper “guessed right.”

Memo Ochoa didn’t guess at all.

After Lewandowski was taken down by Mexico defender Hector Moreno while the two chased after and fought for a ball that was rolling in the box — it might not have been a foul if Moreno had not grabbed hold of his opponent’s jersey — he of course took the assignment to attempt the spot kick as Poland’s designated taker.

As Lewandowski approached the ball in the 58th minute, Ochoa momentarily flinched toward his right. He immediately corrected himself, though, and lunged in the opposite direction toward the left post, where he arrived at the precise moment the ball approached the goal line. No guessing: Ochoa read his opponent.

MORE: Ochoa penalty save turns Group C on its head

The ball traveled fast enough that Ochoa could not control it, but his deflection eventually was removed from danger. It was a spectacular save. Lewandowski never had missed a penalty for Poland in 10 prior attempts. 

He has yet to score in a World Cup, but given he’s only played in four games, too much can be made of that fact. Except he had such a great opportunity here. Statistically, he was a near-lock to score: Soccer site FotMob rated the attempt with an expected goal on target number (xGOT) of .99.

Ochoa made a heck of a show out of that .01 chance to save it.

He is 37 years old and playing in his fifth World Cup — though he didn’t play a game as a backup ‘keeper in 2006 and 2010. For all the amazing goals scored in Qatar so far, no one has made a bigger play than Memo.

Mexico in total control vs. Poland

It wasn’t just that Mexico had the ball the majority of the time. That was expected in advance, and the gameplan Poland executed was pretty much as anticipated. It’s more that when Poland gained control and attempted to generate counters, where they can be lethal, there were few outlets and no final targets.

Lewandowski had 42 touches in the game. Only 12 of those were in the final third. 

Take away the penalty attempt, and Poland had an expected goals rating just slightly above zero.

It’s still a chore for El Tri to score 

Dating back to the CONCACAF Nations League semifinal in spring 2021, Mexico has scored just 32 goals in their past 25 competitive games, and they’ve been shut out seven times. Oops, make that eight.

“In the first half, we lacked precision facing the goal,” Martino said. “We were intense. We were in control of the game. We were careful not to let the opponent run on the counterattack.”

He was bothered that too often in the second half, the attacks were from isolated players with little support, noting that midfielders Hector Herrera and Luis Chavez arrived in the box once each in the second half.

Raul Jimenez is recovering from a groin injury, and he was poor as a substitute against Poland. He has 29 goals in 96 caps, but delivered only three in nine World Cup qualifying appearances, eight of them starts. 

Chucky Lozano was considered to be the future of Eli Tri when he made his first appearance at 21. He has scored only 16 times in 60 appearances, and only one of those in competitive games since the start of 2021.

Where are the goals going to be found against an Argentina team with more talent, and a Saudi Arabia team that held the vaunted Argentina attack to a penalty goal?

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