Week 11 of the college football season features four matchups between ranked teams, including a Texas-sized showdown in the Big 12.
No. 4 TCU is a seven-point underdog at No. 18 Texas at 7:30 p.m. ET; a surprising line given the Horned Frogs are one of four undefeated teams left in the FBS. TCU will get a chance to stay in the College Football Playoff race, and the Longhorns are looking to play spoiler while keeping their New Year’s Day Six hopes alive. That is the best game on the schedule this week.
MORE: College Football Playoff picture | Bowl projections
No. 24 Washington meets No. 6 Oregon in a Pac-12 rivalry at 7 p.m. The Ducks are still in the mix, but they cannot afford a conference loss.
No. 10 Alabama takes on No. 12 Ole Miss at 3:30 p.m. in a battle of teams hoping No. 7 LSU trips up in SEC West play. No. 22 UCF travels to No. 16 Tulane in an American Athletic Conference matchup with New Year’s Day Six implications in the same window. There are 21 matchups involving AP Top 25 teams in Week 11. A look at our track record this season:
- Straight up: 144-39, .787 (14-7 last week)
- ATS: 96-85-2, .530 (9-12 last week)
Week 11 picks against the spread
Friday, Nov. 10
- Colorado at No. 8 USC (-34) (9:30 p.m., FS1)
The Trojans should be able to control this one given the Buffaloes rank last in total offense and total defense in the Pac-12. Will USC cover? That’s a little more dicey given the defense the last two weeks. USC is 1-3 ATS when favored by more than 14 points. If this pushes up past 35 points, then take the Buffs.
Pick: USC wins 52-17 and COVERS the spread.
Saturday, Nov. 11
- Indiana at No. 2 Ohio State (-41.5) (12 p.m., FOX)
The Hoosiers have lost six in a row, and they have averaged 19.8 points per game in that stretch. The Buckeyes are 0-3 ATS when favored by 35 points or more this season, and they have failed to cover on the road the last two games. This home game could be different, but the Hoosiers can still sneak in a back-door cover.
Pick: Ohio State wins 49-13 and FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- Missouri at No. 5 Tennessee (-21) (12 p.m., CBS)
The Vols got their reality check from Georgia, and there is a slight hangover risk against the Tigers, who are 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season. Missouri has losses to Georgia, Florida and Kentucky by seven points or less. So, why are we leaning toward a Vols’ blowout? Well, they did win 62-24 last year and they have to keep the CFP committee’s attention. This line is almost perfect, so watch to see if it moves a half-point either way.
Pick: Tennessee wins 45-21 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 7 LSU (-3) at Arkansas (12 p.m., ESPN)
How do the Tigers handle success as a short favorite after an emotional victory against Alabama? That’s the question in an early kickoff game against a desperate Arkansas team coming off a 21-19 loss to Liberty. It’s a fun quarterback matchup between Jayden Daniels and KJ Jefferson. It’s only the Tigers’ third true road game this season, but they keep their SEC championship hopes alive under Brian Kelly. This line could move up during the week.
Pick: LSU wins 34-28 and COVERS the spread.
MORE: Brian Kelly’s gutsy call goes down in Death Valley lore
- No. 19 Liberty (-14.5) at UConn (12 p.m., CBSSN)
Which story is better? Liberty making its pitch for a New Year’s Day Six bowl under Hugh Freeze? Or Jim Mora Jr. having the Huskies within one game of a bowl berth in his first season? UConn also is 8-2 ATS this season. Liberty, however, is a little further along in its project.
Pick: Liberty wins 34-17 and COVERS the spread.
- Purdue at No. 21 Illinois (-6.5) (TBD)
This is another piece of the very-complex Big Ten West puzzle, and the Boilermakers have been pushed around in losses to Wisconsin and Iowa. Purdue allowed 5.7 yards per carry in those losses. The Boilermakers have won the last two meetings in this series, however, and it should be close. We’ll hedge, but the Illini at home remains the better play.
Pick: Illinois wins 28-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- No. 20 Notre Dame (-17) at Navy (12 p.m., ABC)
The Irish are coming off Marcus Freeman’s first signature victory as head coach in the blowout against Clemson, and the Midshipmen are 4-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog. That makes this line a little nerve-wracking, but the Irish have won this game by an average of 22.2 points per game in the last four meetings. They are the better team.
Pick: Notre Dame wins 38-14 and COVERS the spread.
- Louisville at No. 12 Clemson (-7.5) (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
How will Clemson respond to the loss against Notre Dame? The Tigers lost two ACC games last season and followed up with home wins the following week by an average of eight points per game. The Cardinals have won four straight and will be looking for a season-making victory under Scott Satterfield. The Tigers bounce back, however, and run their home winning streak to 39 games.
Pick: Clemson wins 31-21 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 10 Alabama (-12.5) at No. 11 Ole Miss (3:30 p.m., CBS)
The Crimson Tide are out of the College Football Playoff picture, and their outside chance of reaching the SEC championship game hinges on getting their act together on the road. Ole Miss had a bye week to prepare. Alabama has won the last six meetings, but the Rebels’ running game will keep this one tight into the fourth quarter.
Pick: Alabama wins 35-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
MORE: Breaking down Alabama’s issues after second loss
- Nebraska at No. 3 Michigan (-29) (3:30 p.m., ABC)
The Wolverines are favored by more than 20 points for the third straight week and fourth time in Big Ten play. They are 1-2 ATS in those situations. Nebraska has averaged just 11 points per game the last two weeks. This line feels a touch high, but we said the same thing last week against Rutgers.
Pick: Michigan wins 44-17 and FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- Maryland at No. 14 Penn State (-12) (3:30 p.m., FOX)
The Terps have three Big Ten losses by an average of 7.3 points per game, and they won at Beaver Stadium in their last visit in 2020. The Nittany Lions, however, still have New Year’s Day Six hopes. How much will backup quarterback Drew Allar play for Penn State?
Pick: Penn State wins 34-21 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 22 UCF at No. 16 Tulane (-2) (3:30 p.m., ESPN2/ESPNU)
The Green Wave’s dream season continues against one of the original New Year’s Day Six busters. The line might tick down before kickoff, and the Golden Knights have won the last four meetings. We’ve picked against Tulane to cover the last two weeks. What happens when we go the other way?
Pick: Tulane wins 27-24 and COVERS the spread.
- Boston College at No. 17 NC State (-19.5) (3:30 p.m., ACC Network)
The Eagles are on a four-game losing streak, and they have been a brutal road team this season with four road losses by an average of 21 points per game. NC State found a quarterback in MJ Morris, and he leads a home blowout for the Wolfpack.
Pick: NC State wins 38-16 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 1 Georgia (-16.5) at Mississippi State (7 p.m, ESPN)
Georgia proved it is No. 1, and now it must avoid a letdown on the road against a Mississippi State team that kept it close when the teams played on Nov. 21, 2020 before UGA won 31-24. It is a prime-time spotlight for Mississippi State, who have not lost at home this season, which would make for the ultimate Mike Leach upset. This is a different Georgia team, however.
Pick: Georgia wins 37-18 and COVERS the spread.
- No. 24 Washington at No. 6 Oregon (-12.5) (7 p.m., FOX)
Oregon continues to ace every test since the Week 1 loss to Georgia. The Ducks are 7-1 ATS since, and they have beaten rivals BYU, Stanford and UCLA by an average of 18 points per game at home. Washington struggled on the road in one-score losses at UCLA and Arizona State, but they were one-score games. The Ducks pull away in the fourth quarter, but Washington hangs around long enough for a cover.
Pick: Oregon wins 41-31 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- No. 23 Kansas State (-3) at Baylor (7 p.m., FS1)
The Wildcats have been up-and-down the last three weeks through a run that included TCU, Oklahoma State and Texas, and this is the wrong time to face the Bears. Baylor has won three in a row, and like Texas they can slow down the Wildcats on the ground a little bit. The Bears have won the last four meetings in this series.
Pick: Baylor wins 31-27 in an UPSET.
- No. 4 TCU at No. 18 Texas (-7) (7:30 p.m., ABC)
This line has moved down a half-point, and it should. The disrespect card continues to be played against the Horned Frogs, who have been the most-consistent team in the Big 12 all season. Texas is 1-2 S/U when favored seven points or less this season, and TCU is 6-2 in this series in the CFP era. Yes, Gary Patterson is on the other sideline, but the Horned Frogs are the better team.
Pick: TCU wins 38-33 in an UPSET.
- No. 15 North Carolina at Wake Forest (-3.5) (7:30 p.m. ESPN2)
This is a double-take line considering Wake Forest has lost back-to–back games and the Tar Heels have the best offense in the ACC at 40.6 points per game. North Carolina has won the last two meetings by ridiculous scores at 58-55 and 59-53. The Demon Deacons have won the last three home meetings. This could get wild, but we’ll stick with the Tar Heels.
Pick: North Carolina wins 42-38 in an UPSET.
- No. 25 Florida State (-6.5) at Syracuse (8 p.m., ACC Network)
The Orange have lost three straight games, and they average just 18 points per game. The Seminoles have dropped 40-plus points on Georgia Tech and Miami the last two weeks. The line has dipped a little bit on some sports books, and our sense is Syracuse will play up here. Still, the Seminoles are put together on offense right now.
Pick: Florida State wins 28-21 and COVERS the spread.
- Stanford at No. 13 Utah (-23) (10 p.m., ESPN)
The Cardinal need to win out just to become bowl eligible, and this is their biggest spread of the season. Stanford has lost in blowout fashion each of the last two weeks, so there is the chance to play the spoiler. The bad news? Utah hammered the Cardinal 52-7 last year, and they are 2-1 ATS at home. Still, we think the Cardinal put up just enough of a fight to cover.
Pick: Utah wins 41-20 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
- Arizona at No. 9 UCLA (-20) (10:30 p.m., FOX)
The Bruins are heavy favorites at the Rose Bowl, and they are 3-0 ATS as a favorite in Pac-12 play. This has been a brutal stretch for Arizona – and they’ve allowed 45 points or more in four straight losses. Dorian Thompson-Robinson continues the hot streak.
Pick: UCLA wins 45-22 and COVERS the spread.
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