When the Steelers (1-1) take on the Browns (1-1) in Cleveland to open Week 3 of the 2022 NFL season on “Thursday Night Football” (8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video), control of first place early in the AFC North race will be on the line.
Pittsburgh scored a field-goal overtime victory over Cincinnati on the road in Week 1 before losing by a field goal vs. New England in Week 2. The Browns won on the final possession against the Panthers in Week 1 before blowing a big home lead and falling to the Jets in Week 2.
Both teams have shown limited offenses with below-average quarterback play and both defenses have had lapses. How does that play out on TNF?
Here’s everything to know about betting on Steelers vs. Browns in Week 3, including updated odds, trends and our prediction for “Thursday Night Football.”
Steelers vs. Browns odds for Thursday Night Football
- Spread: Browns by 4.5
- Over/under: 38.5
- Moneyline: Steelers +175, Browns -210
The Browns started early as 5-point favorites but that number has dropped a little. The total has remained at the low number given the grinding, physical nature of both teams.
(betting odds per Caesars Sportsbook)
Steelers vs. Browns all-time series
There’s no surprise here with the Steelers holding a 79-61-1 edge. The Steelers swept the series in 2021 after the Browns took out of three in the previous season, including a wild-card playoff victory. The Steelers used to dominate but it’s been 3-3 since 2019.
Three trends to know
—70 percent of spread bettors think the number is too high for the Browns and are siding with the Steelers.
—53 percent of total bettors are siding with the over thinking the number is a little too low.
—The Steelers were 8-10 against the spread last season and have started 1-1. The Browns were 7-10 against the spread last season and have also started 1-1.
Three things to watch
Nick Chubb vs. the Steelers run defense
The Steelers have looked a little better against the run in 2022 after finishing No. 32 in the league last season, giving up 143.8 rushing yards per game. The number is down to 128.5 after two games. But it’s a golden opportunity for the red-hot Chubb, who has rushed for 228 yards and 3 TDs already. Kareem Hunt has added 104 yards and another TD. It’s no secret the run the key to the Browns winning.
Najee Harris vs. the Browns run defense
The Steelers need to get Harris going. it will be difficult, given Cleveland is allowing on average only 73.4 rushing yards per game. Harris has only 72 rushing yards at 2.9 yards per attempt. If Pittsburgh can’t run on the Browns, it must get a spark from Harris in the passing game.
Myles Garrett vs. the Steelers’ offensive line
Pittsburgh won’t have its top edge rusher T.J; Watt to push on Cleveland’s offensive line and get after Jacoby Brissett. But the Browns will wreak some havoc with Garrett working often on right tackle Chukwuma Okorafor. Garrett already has 3 sacks in 2 games after posting 16 last season and will try to be dominant while playing with a back injury.
Stats that matters
5.1 vs. 6.2. That’s how many respective yards per passing attempt quarterbacks Mitchell Trubisky and Jacoby Brissett are averaging so far. These teams are relying a lot on running and short-to-intermediate passing. The QB who can hit on a few big plays downfield will make the difference.
Steelers vs. Browns prediction
Look for the teams to grind out a physical game and the advantage goes with the Browns on their offensive and defensive lines. Chubb will make sure the Browns finish well and they will hand the Steelers another field-goal loss.
Browns 20, Steelers 17