Today’s NBA best bets, odds, expert picks, player props: Bucks at Celtics, more

The second round of the NBA playoffs continues Wednesday with two more Game 5s: Bucks at Celtics (-5.5) and Warriors (-2.5) at Grizzlies. The Celtics and Bucks are tied at two games apiece, while the Warriors, up 3-1, will be looking to close out the Grizzlies in Memphis. Don’t make any bets without looking at Wednesday’s NBA odds, key betting trends, and expert picks from BetQL.

One trend to note is that the BetQL NBA model has gone 16-6 (73 percent) on O/U picks rated at least three stars (out of five) over the last 30 days for a total return of $855 on $100 bets!

BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets, including player props, with star ratings for every game, so sign up for a BetQL Day Pass!

NBA Playoffs: Best bets, odds, expert picks, & betting trends for Wednesday

Odds in this article are subject to change.

LATEST NBA BETTING TRENDS: Odds | Over/Unders | Expert picks

Bucks at Celtics (-5.5), O/U 214.5

Trends: Well, here we are, a 2-2 series that now comes down to a best-of-three. Raise your hand if you had an Al Horford 30-plus points prop last game? If you did, you’re one of the very few.

Horford had 16 points in the fourth quarter alone (6-for-6 on FGs), finishing with 30 points, which is a playoff career-high for the 35-year-old forward who was playing in his 132nd career postseason game. And that’s after he put up 22 points to go along with 16 boards in the Game 3 loss Saturday. Maybe it’s time to start hammering OVERs on Horford after all.

The key for Boston here is whether Robert Williams (left knee) is back, but it sure helps to have Marcus Smart healthy and ready to go.

Milwaukee has gone just 1-3 ATS in this series, and Game 4 was the first time these teams have hit the OVER. With Boston riding this momentum and back at home, leaning Celtics here could be the way to go.

Top Player Prop: Marcus Smart OVER 14.5 points (+100) on FanDuel. Averaging 14.7 points a game in the playoffs, the Defensive Player of the Year has actually been a real factor on the offensive side for the Celtics, too. Given the shortened rotation in Boston, Smart’s 35.7 minutes and almost 13 shots a game give plenty of opportunities to hit this total, especially with it being one of the few point totals on the prop market sitting around at least even money.

BetQL Staff Pick: Celtics -5.5. The Celtics are taking back control of this series and I don’t see them letting up now in Game 5. Plus, BetQL points out that, in the second half of this season, the Celtics are 25-9 ATS against teams averaging at least 23 assists per game and 17-6 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. The Celtics are awake now and there’s no stopping them, so I see them covering this spread as the favorite. – Lucy Burdge

Warriors at Grizzlies (-2.5), O/U 220.5

Trends: The NBA playoffs have been physical and contentious, and no series illustrates that more than what the Warriors and Grizzlies have put out on the court.

Now, Golden State looks to close out Memphis in five games, and it’s clear the experience I’ve been talking about has really started to favor the Warriors in this series.

Even on the road, the Warriors just look like the more composed team, and that should be expected. If Ja Morant (right knee) is miraculously back, he likely won’t be nearly as effective as usual. Sure, last game was a whole lot closer than the Game 3 30-point blowout, but you can feel the momentum swinging the Warriors’ way.

Golden State has only covered once this whole series, so the scrappiness of the Grizz will likely keep this thing close while they’re in survival mode, but a Warriors win outright is the likely outcome here. As BetQL notes, Steve Kerr is 77-27 SU after a game where both teams scored 105 points or fewer while coaching Golden State.

Top Player Prop: Steph Curry to score 30-plus points (+104) on FanDuel. After two years of injury-plagued seasons for the Warriors, it’s clear that Curry has a laser focus to get back to the NBA Finals. He’s hit this mark in back-to-back games now and five of nine overall this postseason. At 28.1 points per game on 46.6-percent shooting, Curry is a very likely candidate for another 30-point game, especially in a close-out situation in Memphis.

BetQL Staff Pick: Warriors -2.5. If I told you that Steph Curry and Klay Thompson would combine to shoot 4-for-21 from three-point range and that the Warriors would shoot 9-for-37 (24.3 percent) and still win Game 4, you would have thought I was crazy. However, that’s exactly what happened. Curry exploded in the fourth quarter, and while Golden State was certainly aided by some awful shot selection by Memphis down the stretch of that game, they still found a way to win, which is what matters. It’s pretty clear right now that Golden State is the better team. I like them to win big, cover, and head to the Western Conference Finals. – Dan Karpuc

BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets, including NBA player props, with star ratings for every game. Sign up for a BetQL Day Pass!