2022 Primetime NFL Betting Trends: Sunday and Monday Night Football dominated by underdogs…and the under

Weird things happen in primetime games. Anyone familiar with the NFL and the sports betting industry has uttered such a phrase — and not just because an underdog occasionally covers a huge spread or two elite offenses engage in defensive slugfests every once in a while. Recent data from Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football games prove a well-traveled theory: primetime pigskin is dominated by underdogs, and the UNDER has become the king of nationally-televised over/unders.

While the better on-paper teams on SNF and MNF still have a moneyline winning percentage of nearly 65 percent this season, favorites in these primetime slates have covered the spread just 31.5 percent of the time. Don’t adjust your screen resolution: underdogs have covered in 13 of the 19 SNF and MNF contests (and 12 of the past 15), while the UNDER has remarkably also gone 13-6. 

That’s a staggering shift in momentum, considering four of the first five SNF/MNF games this season involved favorites covering. Since then, it has been a ‘dog and UNDER windfall! If you prefer to visualize data, check out this handy chart we’ve put together that details the spread, over/under, and result for each of the 19 Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football contests:

• Underdogs’ ATS cover rate on SNF/MNF: 13-6
• Moneyline favorites’ win-loss record on SNF/MNF: 12-7 
• Over/under record on SNF/MNF: 13 UNDER, 6 OVER

These trends have paid obvious dividends for sportsbooks. As most people know, primetime pigskin rules the entire landscape of sports betting. It stands to reason that the more heavily-watched individual games of the most popular professional league in the world garner particularly-large levels of betting activity, and that heavily-bet games in turn make sportsbooks the most money. Night games are when professional football oddsmakers earn their living — sometimes making up for a big loss on Sunday afternoon, other times just putting the proverbial cherry on top of an already-fruitful slate. But how do they always find a way to beat the betting public?

There are layers to the answer, but in short: oddsmakers capitalize on uninformed and poorly-researched bettors. Novice gamblers typically lure themselves into betting on the favorite, especially after the favorite hits a handful of times in early-season primetime contests. And fair-weather fans usually enjoy betting the OVER and rooting for more scoring. As our global attention span progressively dwindles each year, it should come as no surprise that the everyday bettor isn’t spending their time delving into betting trends, sharp bettor reports, and split stats. Thus, how can we expect the average Joe to bet on a ‘dog or smash the under?

The typical bettor also seems to have a very short memory, like turnover-prone QBs or brick-laying jumpshooters. How soon we seem to forget that six consecutive underdogs on nationally-televised Sunday and Monday night games covered, or that the UNDER hit on six of the past eight Sunday and Monday evening points totals. Any given Sunday, many chuckle as they head into a new week. Undie Night Football!

Variables that contribute to these glaring primetime trends

Oddsmakers are good at what they do

The first and most obvious explanation for these trends: oddsmakers, linemakers, and handicappers are extremely knowledgeable when it comes to predicting games and, more importantly, projecting scores. They look at every facet of every team, analyze the angles a team could attack to narrow their opponent’s advantage, and set lines and odds to entice but not reward the average bettor. Some bettors think of themselves as gifted in terms of analyzing betting trends and examining statistical data — but the professional oddsmaker dives 100 steps deeper than the everyday American bettor. That’s why there’s lots of tall buildings in Las Vegas, as they say. It’s also why bookies tend to drive really, really nice cars.

Lines constantly shift as bettors lean one way or another

In many cases, odds on game nights look drastically different than they did when the lines first opened. This usually suggests that bettors were leaning heavily to one side, so the sportsbooks naturally shift the odds to garner some action the other way and/or increase the spread and juice for the favorite. It’s a good idea to regularly check the odds of a game you are interested in betting, just like investors regularly monitor the market before buying into a stock. Oftentimes, the best value can be had early in the week when odds first get released, but obviously that can come at a risk with injuries and developing news throughout the week.

Favorites often take underdogs too lightly

It’s also entirely possible that superior teams take their inferior opponents too lightly and fail to adequately prepare for the surprise punches the underdog will pack in the primetime contest. Teams with poor records are often younger and more inexperienced, and younger teams often get scrappy and develop chips on their shoulder. And when fans, bettors, and the national media talk about how much you’re going to get blown out by in the coming weekend, a level of increased motivation can set in. Plus, professional coaches are paid massive salaries to win chess matches over other professional coaches. Like oddsmakers, they pore over film, data, and stats to pinpoint ways in which they can exploit their opponent. And don’t ever discount the ubiquitous effect of ‘garbage-time points’ in lopsided games. It’s real, and has contributed to millions of bad beats since the genesis of sports betting. 

The pressure is on when the lights shine brightest

Of course, a third variable involves players’ abilities (or inabilities) to deliver under the bright lights of the nationally-televised primetime games. Some players just flat out do not possess the clutch gene, while others thrive on America’s biggest athletic stages. We’ve seen it in every sport, whether it’s a clutch ninth inning at-bat, a late jumper in a tie game, a sudden-death shot, or a third-and-goal: some have the stones to step up in the big moments, and some fizzle out like a defective sparkler in a rainstorm. That’s why MVPs, MVP candidates, and Super Bowl QBs like Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Jimmy Garoppolo represent the lone favorites who have covered on SNF and MNF this season. 

How to proceed with the knowledge that underdogs and the UNDER have been dominating primetime contests

Now, listen closely: we’re not telling you to bet on an underdog in every primetime game. In sloppy Thursday Night Football games particularly, that would be an awful strategy. On SNF and MNF, you might win out by year’s end, but don’t be surprised if the trends start regressing back to .500 within a few weeks. Believe me, I’m not the first person to uncover this trend — and oddsmakers will address it by adjusting odds once the betting public starts catching on.

For now, our advice is to continue following Sporting News for all our latest betting advice, including primetime game previews and weekly best bets columns. Exercise extreme caution when betting on a favorite by asking yourself questions. Is the spread realistic or attainable? Are the favorites getting way too much credit, or the underdogs way too little respect? Will two squads that have found recent offensive success pinpoint defensive strategies to slow each other down, leading to a lower score?

Any given Sunday has been a saying in the NFL — and football in general — for decades. The sport is literally designed to give well-prepared and hard-working teams a chance to win if they develop and effectively execute a game plan. Year-to-year parity — typically much greater than we have seen in the tanking-effected worlds of the NBA and MLB over the past decade — might be one of the reasons the NFL remains the most successful professional sports league in America.

Use trends to your advantage! Contemplate ways underdogs can compete more than the everyday bettor might think they can. Look at opening lines and closing lines, and analyze how and why they shift. As bettors, we must channel the same missions of oddsmakers, coaches, and teams: prepare, pay attention to details, and always have a strategy. If we don’t execute that basic plan of action every game, we can expect to be as successful as the betting favorites have been over the past five weekends.