Each week, fantasy football analyst Joel Smyth goes through eight storylines that will define the week. After 16 weeks, how will the trends of fantasy football define the championship week?
To play the blowout or not play the blowout?
Last season, for different reasons, the Broncos beat the Chiefs 38-0 at the end of the season with Patrick Mahomes out. In short, the answer last year to “should you play Broncos fantasy players?” was yes. Courtland Sutton led the team with only seven targets and Bo Nix had only 29 passing attempts, yet it was plenty enough. Yes, blowouts mean less volume, but how are you blowing them out? Last season was the ideal: zero turnovers for the Chiefs and no defensive touchdowns for the Broncos. Denver got to drive the ball down the field against a depleted Kansas City defense, scoring drive after drive.​
Advertisement
Although the Chiefs will not rest everyone, CB Trent McDuffie will likely miss the Christmas Day game on Thursday, helping the already high TD odds of Sutton. With the Chiefs starting Chris Oladokun at QB, I’d expect plenty of red-zone trip opportunities for Nix and company. Denver is top-10 in pass rate inside the 20-yard line this season, with Troy Franklin being targeted on 25% of passes and Sutton 22%, combining for seven touchdowns so far. When they are running the ball, it’s been nearly 100% to rookie RJ Harvey as of late. Harvey has had all five goal-line carries over the last month, resulting in four rushing touchdowns. The volume as a whole may be low, but with the Broncos projected to score 24.5 points, the chances of hitting pay dirt should be enough to start the Denver fantasy players.
Jared Goff will need help from the other side to push fantasy output
Jared Goff has plunged you into the fantasy championship with back-to-back 25+ point games. Can he win it all versus the Vikings defense? Back in Week 11, Goff had 284 passing yards and two touchdowns versus Minnesota, a team he matches up well against for being a tough defense to face. Nobody blitzes more than the Vikings in 2025, an area where Goff ranks third in passing yards per attempt. The issue is the Vikings will be starting a backup quarterback who lost his only career start earlier this season 26-0 to the Seahawks. Sometimes, in those wire-to-wire blowouts, you throw for 128 passing yards and no TDs like Sam Darnold did.
Advertisement
Goff needs to have TD luck in his favor if the game heads in that direction, even more than most QBs. We’ve seen 46% of Goff’s fantasy points come from passing touchdowns alone, one of the highest marks in the NFL. The Vikings haven’t been dominant on the ground as of late, which gives Goff a low floor along with his high ceiling. Playing in another indoor game favors Goff’s fantasy history, but he may need help from QB Max Brosmer on the other side.
Can you trust Terry McLaurin without a competent QB?
Dallas has not just been 32nd versus WRs this season; that’s far too kind. The Cowboys have given up 8.5 PPG over the NFL average to outside receivers, adjusting to their schedule. The 31st-ranked team versus outside WRs, the Detroit Lions, give up 4.4 PPG more than the average… nearly 2x less. McLaurin scored over 20 fantasy points in each game versus Dallas last season, but can he do it without QB Jayden Daniels? And Washington’s other QB Marcus Mariota?
Advertisement
For what it’s worth, potential starter Josh Johnson has thrown for 300+ passing yards in each of his last two starts, although they were in 2021. The Commanders defense should set them up for a pass-heavy day to give McLaurin, at minimum, good volume. To take injuries into account, McLaurin’s volume based on targets per route run this season is 23%, above his mark as a fantasy WR2 last season. The Cowboys defense can make up for a lot of woes, making McLaurin a good upside flyer for those in need. ​
[Upgrade to Fantasy Plus and gain your edge in player projections and much more]
Can Cardinals’ wide receivers thrive against Cincy?
Everyone knows by now that the Bengals are one of the worst TE defenses in the history of the NFL. Great news for Trey McBride, but bad news for Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr. The Bengals have yet to allow a single WR this season to score 20+ receiving fantasy points in PPR leagues (they’ve allowed five to TE/RBs). The corners are not the weakness of this defense that has been quietly improving as of late. In their last five games, the Bengals rank 16th in passing fantasy PPG allowed, despite playing against Lamar Jackson twice, Josh Allen and Drake Maye.
Advertisement
The other issue that lowers the floor of the Arizona WRs is, in fact, each other. In the last two games that Harrison has been active, neither WR has posted great numbers. Wilson’s 13.2 points last week were the highest mark, and that came on a crazy 38-yard TD grab accounting for 80% of it. I would rather start Wilson of the two, especially when considering injuries, but he is no longer the weekly WR1 in rankings.
Can Trevor Lawrence keep the fantasy playoff run going?
The No. 1 overall fantasy QB since Week 5 is Josh Allen… and Trevor Lawrence (they’re tied). After being a top-two fantasy QB for his second straight week and top-15 in 10 of his last 11 games, the Jaguars QB has become a staple for fantasy playoff teams. After carrying managers to the finish, Lawrence now gets the in-division Colts, who just allowed Brock Purdy to throw for five touchdowns on Monday Night Football. With no Sauce Gardner to save them, the Colts defense, which has been trending downhill have allowed 282 passing yards per game in their last five weeks.
Advertisement
Lawrence had next to no rushing, a big day from RB Travis Etienne Jr. on the ground, and still reached 19.4 fantasy points versus Indianapolis a few weeks ago. The downfield focus and extra rushing upside have given Lawrence one of the most consistent floors while having a high weekly ceiling, similar to Baker Mayfield last season with Liam Coen. With chaos at the QB position elsewhere, Lawrence is a clear QB1 for me in Week 17.
Can Chicago RBs take advantage of depleted 49ers defense?
After starting as a top-10 defense on a per carry basis, San Francisco has dropped to 28th in defensive EPA/carry in the second half of the season. The banged-up 49ers defense now has to face off against the Chicago rushing attack, which leads the NFL in success rate and yards before contact. Success rate is how often a team is “staying on schedule” with positive rushing plays, a stat that the 49ers rank 32nd in on defense in the second half of the year.​
Advertisement
When adjusting to the 49ers schedule, their fantasy PPG allowed to RB actually drops from 16th to 22nd, not to mention they benefitted from facing Jonathan Taylor without Daniel Jones active. Chicago’s rushing attack usually has to get into the end zone to pay off in fantasy, something D’Andre Swift has done in exactly 50% of games. I’d say those odds are north of 50% this weekend.
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish 2025 strong in tough matchup vs. Rams?
Kyle Pitts Sr. being a league-winning TE out of nowhere is what fantasy is all about. Two games down, can the 25-year-old TE make it three? I think there’s a better shot than most would see on paper. First off, his connection with Kirk Cousins has been evident, with him being a top-six fantasy TE in four consecutive games, being targeted on 8+ throws each week. With Drake London banged up and the Falcons out of playoff contention, I’d be surprised to see London steal more targets than he did in Week 16.​
Advertisement
The Rams defense is good, but when it comes to fantasy football, the passing production has been plenty for opposing offenses later in the year. In the second half of the season, Los Angeles is 28th in receiving fantasy PPG allowed, a great sign for Pitts’ ceiling. As a TE that can be used all over the field, Pitts should be set up well to turn his volume into another productive day versus the Rams in the fantasy championship.
Here are six defenses that should help you in the championship
Streaming defenses is a great strategy to make it to the fantasy championship. If it’s brought you this far, there are six defenses playing backup QBs who are ideal plays in Week 17. I also highlighted the likely weather spots to check before this weekend’s games.
Advertisement
Of those six offenses, three of them resulted in the top-three fantasy defenses in Week 16, with 100% giving the opposing fantasy D/ST a top-10 week. Remember, upside is everything when considering fantasy defenses. I’d rather play a bad defense versus a bad offense than a good defense versus a good offense.
