The Yankees can’t possibly give Aaron Judge another reason to walk away, can they?
They already gave him one, this spring, when they held firm on their final offer and didn’t meet Judge’s ask on a contract extension. Now, it’s going to cost them, in one of two ways. First, if they do re-sign him, it’s going to cost a lot more than it would have this spring, before, y’know, he hit 62 home runs and was the club’s lone source of offense — and, oh yeah, played center field and batted leadoff because nobody else could — for most of the second half of the season.
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Or, it’s going to cost them their best player, because it would not be shocking if Judge winds up wearing a different uniform next season. There are teams with deep pockets and an immense need for the exact type of player Judge is, and they’ll be willing to back up the proverbial armored trucks to bring him to their ballpark.
Only one thing feels very certain: The Yankees will not be given any sort of hometown discount. If that’s what Judge intended to accept, he would have done so this spring. Now that he’s set to become a free agent — technically not until after the World Series — other teams will be able to make him actual tangible offers of more money than the Yankees offered this spring. If the Yankees do come to Judge with anything other than the top offer, it will almost certainly be seen as an elaborate “Thanks for the memories, and good luck” card.
It will be yet another reason to leave. The Yankees can’t really do that, can they? Almost certainly not.
It still seems likely that Judge stays with the Yankees. But if he doesn’t, here’s where he could wind up.
Giants
This still feels like the greatest threat for Yankees fans. There’s the connection to the team and the region, of course — Judge went to high school less than two hours from McCovey Cove — but also this: The Giants need a player like Judge, a reliable, consistent source of power who knows how to take a walk and can play all over the outfield, allowing the Giants to mix and match other players based on matchups and scouting reports. After dropping from 107 wins in 2021 to 81 in 2022, the front office is motivated to make impact moves.
And, also, there’s this: San Francisco has plenty of money to spend. Starting in 2024, the Giants have only one player under contract for more than $6.5 million (starter Anthony DiSclafani), and their total payroll before arbitration-eligible signings and pre-arbitration contracts is less than $21 million. So, yeah. Home-region ties, massive need, plenty of payroll space, burning desire to beat the Dodgers. The pieces are there.
Mets
Unless Aaron Judge really hates the Yankees in ways that nobody really understands, it feels like the Mets would have to massively outbid the Yankees for Judge’s signature on a contract, something along the lines of $350 million to the Yankees’ $300 million. Because Judge gets it, both what he means to Yankees fans and what it would mean to be a Yankee for life. It’s a very cool club to be part of — a lifer with any team is a rarity in this era — and it’s damn near impossible to see him throwing away that opportunity for a couple of extra million on top of an already massive deal. It would have to be enough of an overpay that even Yankees fans would say, “I don’t like it, but yeah, I get it.”
And jumping from the Yankees to the Mets would hurt Yankees fans more than leaving for any other team. So the question becomes: Does Steve Cohen have a line? Is there an amount of money that’s too much for him? A long-term deal like this is much different than the silly short-term deal the Mets gave Max Scherzer last offseason. It feels like Judge could get him right up to that line, but at the end of the day most everybody has a line.
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Dodgers
Yeah, yeah, I know. The Dodgers are always mentioned when any high-talent, high-priced player is available. But it’s not just a ploy to get “Dodgers” in a headline for SEO reasons. They traded for Mookie Betts. They signed Freddie Freeman. Before those, they signed David Price. They will be interested in Aaron Judge, and the early exit from the 2022 postseason won’t lessen their desire to improve their roster.
Think about that outfield: They have superstar Betts, yes, but are they really going to give Cody Bellinger — owner of a 74 OPS+ the past three seasons — another year of ABs? Trayce Thompson was a great story, but he’s unlikely to be the long-term answer in the outfield. The Dodgers have options, but the allure of bringing Judge back to California, in Dodger Blue, has to be pretty appealing.
Cubs
Remember when Glenallen Hill hit a baseball onto the roof of the building across Waveland Street from Wrigley?
Now, imagine Judge taking regular target practice at that building when the wind’s blowing out. Rooftop patrons might have to wear riot gear to stay safe during BP. It’s been a minute since the Cubs were playoff-relevant — not their longest drought, but basically two years — and that’s not ideal. It’s not just fans who are getting anxious. Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said this at his season-ending news conference, talking about the postseason: “I was struck by was just how much I miss it and just how much it hurts not to be there.”
Aaron Judge would help them get back. Maybe it would be a year early to sign a slugger like Judge, but sluggers like Judge don’t come along often. The Cubs shed payroll last year, trading away just about everybody making a decent wage, and they don’t have much on the books past 2024. Even if they came with the best offer, though, the Cubs would have to convince Judge that this is once again a team on the rise. He’s not likely to sign any place where just getting to the postseason is a big challenge, which means he would either need to see more movement toward a competitive team — not just a youth movement — before he signed, or get assurances those moves are coming soon. Definitely feels like a long shot.
More long shots
The Red Sox keep getting mentioned as a destination for Judge, with money coming off the books — what better way to make fans forget that Xander Bogaerts is leaving than bringing in Judge — and a desire to wash away the memory of a disastrous 2022 season. But I think the “would Judge want to play for the Red Sox right now” question is legit.
You’ve probably read “hey, the Cardinals were in the Juan Soto talks to the very end so why not Judge” thoughts at least a few times, but there is a VERY BIG DIFFERENCE between attempting to trade pieces from a deep well of young talent for a 23-year-old slugger under club control for another 2 1/2 years and signing a player heading into his Age 31 season to a $300 million deal. Oh, and remember how old Albert Pujols was when the Cardinals didn’t match the Angels’ offer, then he became a shell of his former self for a decade?
You can’t blame Astros fans for dreaming of a left/right slugger combo of Yordan Alvarez and Aaron Judge in the heart of the lineup. The Astros have multiple issues to deal with this offseason, starting with one that would have a big impact on the pursuit of Aaron Judge: Who’s the GM next year? James Click’s deal expires after this season.
Similarly, Judge would be a nice bashing combo with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the Blue Jays lineup, but you’re already hearing reports that Toronto won’t be outbidding anyone for prize pieces this winter.
I’m sure fans of the White Sox, Rangers and Phillies are excited about the idea of adding Judge, but I’m not so sure those team’s front-office types share the enthusiasm.
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