After rough Wild Card Series ball/strike calls, higher-rated umpires up for Division Series games

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The very first game of the 2022 postseason, with the Guardians hosting the Rays, was seen by many as Exhibit A as to why baseball needs “robot umpires” calling balls and strikes. 

Doug Eddings, a veteran umpire who made his MLB debut way back in 1998, did not have his finest day calling balls and strikes. According to Ump Scorecards, the website/Twitter account that tracks umpire performance, Eddings missed 12 of the 108 ball/strike calls in the game, won by Cleveland. To put it another way, Eddings got 11.1 percent of the calls wrong. According to Umpire Auditor, another tracker of umpire performance, Eddings missed 18 calls, or 17.3 percent.

MORE: TSN’s baseball experts make picks for every postseason series

That’s … not what you want in a tightly contested playoff game after a 162-game regular season. Check out the visualization.

I remember seeing that tweet pop up on my timeline as I was sitting in the press box during the Phillies-Cardinals game in St. Louis. The accuracy number under 90 percent might as well have been accompanied by flashing lights and blaring alarms. 

We’re not here to talk about robot umpires today, but instead, to take a look at the umpires who have been given ball/strike duties so far in the postseason. The question is this: Should we be shocked that Eddings’ ball/strike accuracy was so low? 

On the Ump Scorecard website, you can search each individual umpire’s performance — here’s the explanation of the methods and research the site uses — and a quick sorting of the Accuracy column shows that Eddings ranked No. 84 among the 96 umpires who worked at least one game behind home plate during the 2022 season, with an accuracy of 92.4 percent. Via Umpire Auditor, Eddings ranked 80th of 92 qualified umpires, with a correct call rate of 90.8 percent. 

Baseball fans, it seems, should not have been surprised at a bunch of missed calls. 

It’s important to point out that MLB uses its own set of umpire ratings, as collectively bargained with the MLB Umpires Association, and those are what MLB uses as a guide to choose postseason umpire assignments. Those numbers are not readily publicly available, which is why Ump Scorecards and Umpire Auditor and others have become a popular resource. It’s also worth noting that, as this informative ESPN article tells us, MLB’s official system gives umpires a 2-inch buffer around the actual strike zone. So that infamous Angel Hernandez game earlier this season — remember Kyle Schwarber getting kicked out? — produced a score of 85.3 percent with Umpire Auditor, but 96.1 by MLB’s grading system.

It’s quite the difference. But, like the whole “robot umpires” thing, that’s not the rabbit hole we’re diving down today. First, let’s look at all the Wild Card umpire performances, using Ump Scorecards accuracy data. Five of the nine umpires who worked a Wild Card game were ranked No. 54 or lower of the 96 umpires who called at least one game behind the plate. 

Rays at Guardians
Game 1: Doug Eddings. No. 84 in Accuracy, 92.5 (28 games)
Wild Card Accuracy: 88.9 (96 of 108)
Game 2: Adam Hamari. No. 4, 94.9 (32 games)
Wild Card Accuracy: 96.6 (197 of 204)

Mariners at Blue Jays
Game 1: Lance Barrett. No. 79 (tie), 92.8 (30 games)
Wild Card Accuracy: 90.3 (102 of 113)
Game 2: Todd Tichenor. No. 29 (tie), 94.2 (26 games)
Wild Card Accuracy: 94.7 (160 of 169)

Phillies at Cardinals
Game 1: D.J. Reyburn. No. 71 (tie), 93.2 (29 games)
Wild Card Accuracy: 92.7 (166 of 179)
Game 2: Vic Carpazza. No. 29 (tie), 94.2 (30 games)
Wild Card Accuracy: 97.2 (139 of 143)

Padres at Mets
Game 1: Adrian Johnson. No. 74 (tie), 93.1 (31 games)
Wild Card Accuracy: 94.4 (132 of 139)
Game 2: Chris Guccione. No. 43 (tie), 94.0 (30 games)
Wild Card Accuracy: 96.1 percent (197 of 205)
Game 3: Chris Conroy. No. 54 (tie), 93.6 (31 games)
Wild Card Accuracy: 96.2 (127 of 132)

This shouldn’t be surprising; the four umpires ranked 43rd or better — Hamari, Tiechnor, Carpazza and Guccione — had an accuracy percentage of 96.1 (693 of 721), while the four ranked 54th or worse — Eddings, Barrett, Reyburn, Johnson and Conroy — checked in at 92.9 percent (623 of 671).

So by now I know what you’re probably wondering: What about the Division Series round that starts today? Here are the Games 1 and 2 home-plate assignments for each series, with the Accuracy ranking from Ump Scorecards. 

Seattle vs. Houston
Game 1: Pat Hoberg. No. 2 in Accuracy, 95.5 (29 games)
Game 2: Jansen Visconti. No. 21, 94.4 (30 games)

Guardians vs. Yankees
Game 1: Jordan Baker. No. 22 (tie), 94.3 (32 games)
Game 2: Jeremie Rehak. No. 1, 95.5 (26 games)

Padres vs. Dodgers
Game 1: Tripp Gibson. No. 3, 95.0 (31 games)
Game 2: Chris Segal. No. 46, 93.9 (33 games)

Phillies vs. Braves
Game 1: David Rackley. No. 5 (tie), 94.8 (28 games)
Game 2: Nic Lentz. No. 17 (tie), 94.5 (31 games)

MORE: MLB Division Series betting guide

That lineup is significantly better, with the top three umpires in regular-season accuracy — Rehak, Hoberg and Gibson — and only one out of the tpo 25. And maybe that’s how it should be, with the better umpires getting the more important games. 

Two umpires fans love to complain about, Angel Hernandez and C.B. Bucknor, are not in the Division Series rotation. MLB has not revealed the LCS or World Series umpire assignments yet. 

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