As Steelers fans chant for Kenny Pickett, NFL history cautions that starting a rookie QB can be disastrous

The past two times the Steelers drafted a quarterback in the first round and then installed him into the starting lineup by choice or by force, those players won multiple Super Bowls and built Hall of Fame careers. So perhaps Steeler Nation can be forgiven for assuming this is the natural order of things when selecting a quarterback No. 1.

Those members in attendance Sunday at Acrisure Stadium probably should have been a bit more patient, though, than to start the chants for a QB change – “Kenny! Kenny!” – before the team had finished two games.

And they shouldn’t be so certain starting a rookie quarterback, even a first-round pick – especially a first-round pick, in whom so much is invested – is a prudent decision. 

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“There are a lot of variables. It’s not a clear-cut, binary choice,” NFL analyst Solomon Wilcots of SiriusXM radio told The Sporting News. “What is the team like around the quarterback? Is it a team that can carry a young player? Is there a good offensive line to protect him, and a good running game to support him?

“How much of your system fits what this quarterback does, what he did before in college? Footwork, mechanics? Is the quarterback a good communicator who can get the protections right? Because he’s got to be able to protect himself.”

Through two games, Wilcots told TSN, the Steelers rank next-to-last in the league in yards per play and last in percentage of positive plays according to PFF numbers – only a 26 percent success rate. It’s obvious the Steelers have plenty of room to improve on offense. 

Head coach Mike Tomlin said after an overtime win against the Bengals that included one offensive touchdown, “It’s no secret we’re transitioning and gaining cohesion in that group … We had less negativity in terms of negative plays. We were less penalized. We took care of the football. We positioned ourselves to make the necessary plays in the weighty moments.”

After a home loss to the Patriots that turned on a muffed punt by returner Gunner Olszewski, Tomlin called it, “One of those really tight ballgames that’s going to come down to a few things, and we knew that going in. That’s why you put the weight on the weighty downs or the situational moments.” He’s essentially admitting the Steelers were intent on winning a low-scoring game.

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Wilcots, though, views Trubisky’s performance with the Steelers as representative of his career to date, through four seasons as primary starter with the Bears and a short stint as a backup to Josh Allen with the Bills. And he suspects Pickett may be ready to start “sooner rather than later” because he played 52 college games for Pitt and because joining the Steelers meant he’d be comfortable in his new surroundings — they’re essentially the same as when he practiced five years with the Panthers at the UPMC Rooney Sports Complex.

If PIckett gets in there, he’d better be ready. Because the failure rate for first-round rookie starters is ridiculous. Since 2010, there have been 30 quarterbacks selected in the first round. We will not include the late Dwayne Haskins in any discussions because he did not live to demonstrate whether he might have become an NFL success.

So of the other 29, there were 21 who started the majority of games in their rookie seasons. Only five of those 21 still are with the teams that drafted them. Surprisingly, eight of those 21 are out of the league entirely, although Andrew Luck left the Colts by choice.

Of the eight who did not start regularly as rookies, four proved to lack the talent to become NFL regulars. (Sorry, Johnny Football). But three became multi-time Pro Bowlers (Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson) and two became league MVPs (Mahomes and Jackson).

Of the active starting quarterbacks who have made it to more than one Pro Bowl, five started the majority of the time as rookies and seven mostly sat and watched. Which group’s performances would you rather have?

Football history is littered with such stories as David Carr, who was the No. 1 overall pick by the expansion Houston Texans in 2002 and was sacked 76 times as a rookie and led NFL quarterbacks in being sacked three times in his first four years. He spent only one more season as a starter. 

Some argue struggle is a key ingredient to eventual success, and that someone such as Josh Allen became ready to excel in his second season with the Bills after throwing 12 interceptions and only 10 touchdowns in 2018. But Christian Ponder, Brandon Weeden, EJ Manuel and Josh Rosen didn’t learn from their failures. They just failed.

The experiences of Terry Bradshaw and Ben Roethlisberger tell us more about their own talent and circumstances than about what might await Pickett.

Bradshaw joined a developing Steelers team in 1970, but his struggles lasted nearly half a decade before he was firmly in the lineup and on his way to greatness.

Roethlisberger entered the lineup because of an injury to planned starter Tommy Maddox and went 13-0 as a rookie starter. But he threw only 21 passes a game – the Steelers were last in the league in pass attempts – and relied upon the No. 1 scoring defense and No. 2 rushing offense led by Jerome Bettis.

This Steelers team can’t simply load up the Bus and go.

Wilcots contends that because Mike Tomlin is secure as the Steelers head coach he can make a quarterback change when he sees fit, not when interior pressure or public opinion mandates Pickett enter the lineup.

“Mike Tomlin knows that if Pickett gets in there, those are real bullets flying,” Wilcots said. “There is stuff he has to be ready for. There would be a lot of questions if you had to take him out.”

“I’m sure they feel like there are several other things they’d like to get ironed out first. It’s less about Kenny Pickett and more about other elements of the team that could make it as smooth as possible.”