Barcelona out of Champions League again? Group stage elimination scenarios for Blaugrana

Barcelona’s failure to beat Inter Milan in Matchday 4 at the Camp Nou has pushed the Spanish giants on the brink of a second straight group stage elimination.

The Blaugrana could only muster a 3-3 draw against the Italian side last time out, and while they have not been mathematically eliminated from the Champions League just yet, their fate is no longer in their own hands.

Now, they get set to face Bayern Munich on Wednesday knowing that not only do they need to win, but they require outside help to remain afloat, and that outside help they need feels like a long shot.

For the second straight year, it appears likely that Barcelona are destined for the Europa League, a competition which two years ago seemed squarely beneath the giant Catalan club.

Here are the updated Group C standings with two matchdays remaining. Only the top two teams advance: 

Team PTS GP W L D GF GA GD
1. Bayern Munich-X 12 4 4 0 0 13 2 +11
2. Inter Milan 7 4 2 1 1 6 5 +1
3. Barcelona 4 4 1 2 1 8 7 +1
4. Viktoria Plzen-E 0 4 0 4 0 3 16 -13
  • X = qualified to the Round of 16
  • UEL = clinched berth to Europa League knockout playoffs
  • E = eliminated

MORE: A full look at the 2022/23 Champions League group stage standings

Barcelona on cusp of Champions League elimination

After picking up only a point in what was virtually a must-win in Matchday 4, Barcelona will be officially eliminated from the 2022/23 UEFA Champions League if they fail to beat mighty Bayern Munich or if Inter Milan beat bottom side Viktoria Plzen in their next group stage match.

In front of over 92,000 fans at the Camp Nou, Barcelona looked to be well on their way against Inter Milan, taking a first-half advantage through Ousmane Dembele in the 40th minute and leading at the halftime break by that 1-0 score. The second half, however, turned into a complete mess and an utter collapse by the home side.

Barcelona stalwart Gerard Pique completely switched off, unaware that Inter Milan’s Nicolo Barella had snuck in behind him to level the score at 1-1 just five minutes after the break. Then 13 minutes later, just past the hour mark, Inter Milan attacker Lautaro Martinez put the other Barcelona center-back Eric Garcia in a blender and gave Inter the 2-1 lead.

Robert Lewandowski staved off elimination after he leveled the score at 2-2 in the final 10 minutes, but Inter substitute Robin Gosens seemingly eliminated Barcelona with his 89th minute breakaway goal. But Lewandowski again scored to equalize at 3-3. However, the draw was of little help to Barcelona and may have merely delayed the inevitable.

How Barcelona can be eliminated

With Barcelona sitting on just four points through the first four Champions League matches in Group C, they remain exactly three points behind Inter and eight behind leaders Bayern Munich in the Group of Death.

With only six points left to play for, that means that if Inter beat Viktoria Plzen next round, they would be into the knockouts and Barcelona would be out.

That’s because even if Barcelona were able to draw level on points with Inter in the final standings, the first tiebreaker would be head-to-head results. With a tie and loss to Inter Milan, Barcelona would lose that head-to-head tiebreaker, suffering elimination as a result.

MORE: Which clubs are through to the Champions League knockout stage?

Group C schedule

Date Match Time (BST / ET)
Wed, Sept. 7 Inter Milan 0, Bayern Munich 2  
Wed, Sept. 7 Barcelona 5, Viktoria Plzen 1  
Tue, Sept. 13 Viktoria Plzen 0, Inter Milan 2  
Tue, Sept. 13 Bayern Munich 2, Barcelona 0  
Tue, Oct. 4 Bayern Munich 5, Viktoria Plzen 0  
Tue, Oct. 4 Inter Milan 1, Barcelona 0  
Wed, Oct. 12 Barcelona 3, Inter Milan 3  
Wed, Oct. 12 Viktoria Plzen 2, Bayern Munich 4  
Wed, Oct. 26 Inter Milan vs. Viktoria Plzen 17:45 / 12:45
Wed, Oct. 26 Barcelona vs. Bayern Munich 20:00 / 15:00
Tue, Nov. 1 Bayern Munich vs. Inter Milan 20:00 / 16:00
Tue, Nov. 1 Viktoria Plzen vs. Barcelona 20:00 / 16:00

Barcelona out of group stage: How often has it happened?

Before last year’s Champions League tournament, Barcelona had never been eliminated in the group stage of UEFA’s top club competition.

However, Barcelona finished third in their 2021/22 group behind Bayern Munich and Benfica, seeing them drop to the Europa League for the first time in club history.

That means elimination in this year’s competition would mark just the second time in club history they have not reached the knockout stage of the Champions League.

Last season was the first time since the 2003/04 campaign that Barcelona had not played in the knockout stages of the Champions League. Now it’s about to happen for two seasons in a row. 

They have featured in UEFA’s second tier competition 23 times, including in its previous iterations as the UEFA Cup (1971-2009) and Fairs Cup (1955-1971). (It was rebranded to “Europa League” in 2009-10.)

Barcelona have never made the final of the second-tier competition (as the Fairs Cup, UEFA Cup or Europa League). They were UEFA Cup semifinalists on four occasions, losing each semifinal by one goal: 1975/76, 1977/78, 1995/96 and 2000/01.

Lewandowski falls short vs. Inter, Bayern in Champions League

Robert Lewandowski may have scored two against Inter at the Camp Nou on Wednesday to stave off elimination temporarily, but the Polish international has failed to impress for Barcelona thus far in the moments that counted most.

He picked up a hat-trick in their opener against Viktoria Plzen, but against his old club Bayern Munich, he was held off the scoresheet, unable to find the back of the net despite seven shots which totaled 1.10 xG.

In the first match against Inter in Italy, Lewandowski was blanked again, only finding service for a single 18th minute shot which was saved by goalkeeper Andre Onana.

In the reverse fixture on Wednesday, he scored a pair, but also missed a host of other chances, including a 77th minute header that left the fans begging for more.

How much money did Barcelona spend this summer?

The disappointing finish comes following a massive summer spending spree that pushed the Barcelona books to the brink.

They brought in Robert Lewandowski, Jules Kounde, and Raphinha for a combined €153 million. On top of that, they signed Franck Kessie, Andreas Christensen, Marcos Alonso, and Hector Bellerin on free transfers and penned Ousmane Dembele and Sergi Roberto to new contracts.

The financial situation was so strained that Jules Kounde had to wait an extra two weeks after signing before he was able to be registered for La Liga play, and both Kounde and Christensen had clauses in their contracts that allowed them to leave for free if Barcelona were unable to register them before the deadline.

The Champions League elimination is a massive blow to Barcelona not just for the loss of prestige, but also for the loss of valuable income.

The Champions League provides a significant payday for clubs that go further in the competition, and the lost prize money will present a massive blow to the club. They could still earn a return from a deep run in the Europa League, but it will still be much less than a Champions League journey could bring.

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