Week 5 of the 2022 NFL season is upon us, and soon we’ll be past the quarter point of the regular season. The action has been intense, and the storylines have been plentiful. Most important, our best bets have been scorching hot! We’re winning more money every week, carefully selecting our favorite wagers on the moneyline, against the spread, on the over/under totals, and in the props market.
Every Wednesday, we scour the sportsbooks in search of prime betting value. We analyze matchups, data, and betting trends — both past and present — and weigh out potential variables for each game, before turning it all into one succinct listing of nine or 10 best bets. No matter your betting preference, we have you covered!
Last week, we covered plenty and turned a hefty profit in the process. We swept our three picks against the spread (Chiefs -2 over the Bucs, Eagles -6.5 over the Jags, and Seahawks +4.5 over the Lions) and then nailed two out of three moneyline picks (Bills -160 at Ravens and Vikings -165 vs. Saints). Talk about a strong week!
MORE: Full list of odds for NFL Week 5
Now that we have our bankroll built up, let’s keep the gravy train rolling with our favorite picks from this week’s slate. Without further ado, here are Sporting News’ best bets for Week 5 of the 2022 NFL season, including picks against the spread, moneyline bets, over/under wagers, and some player props.
JUMP TO: Spreads | Moneylines | Over/under | Player props
NFL Best Bets Week 5: Against the spread
All odds are courtesy of Sports Interaction.
Commanders (+2.5) vs. Titans
Carson Wentz and the Commanders got thrashed by the Cowboys last weekend, taking multiple sacks and throwing multiple interceptions, but against inferior secondaries, Washington’s passing game has thrived. The Titans have a bad secondary.
Well, it’s not so much bad as it is inexperienced. Between safety Amani Hooker and cornerbacks Caleb Farley and Kristian Fulton, nobody has hit the quarter-century mark in age. So, don’t be fooled by the meager passing results of Tennessee’s last two opponents, Indy and the Giants. This squad can’t handle above-average passing games. The Titans surrendered 300-plus passing yards in Week 1 and 2 against Vegas and Buffalo and sit tied at fourth with the most passing yards allowed per game (274).
Standout rookie back Brian Robinson Jr. will also be back for Washington, which could quickly become the story of the year if he’s as good as it seemed this preseason. Robinson was shot in the legs during a car-jacking attempt just before the season started. His recovery has been remarkable, and there’s no way his return to the field doesn’t hype up his teammates at home.
I like the receiving trio of Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and Logan Thomas to step back up after a down week against Dallas. I also think Robinson and Antonio Gibson can net some chunk yards against a beatable Tennessee front-seven.
The biggest issue is the discrepancy in passing games. Ryan Tannehill and the Titans took a massive step down when Tennessee shipped out A.J. Brown, and rookie wideout Treylon Burks (the big return in the trade) is set to miss time due to turf toe. With no real aerial threat, expect Titans lead back Derrick Henry to see a stacked box throughout this one. Consider buying a point for the field-goal insurance, but Washington might win this game outright.
Cowboys (+4.5) at Rams
Turmoil seemed imminent when Cowboys QB Dak Prescott went down with a broken thumb in a Game 1 trouncing by Tom Brady and the Bucs. But Cooper Rush has saved the season for Dallas, winning three consecutive games to extend his undefeated streak as a starter. It may seem reactionary to some, but Rush has got the goods! He’s never going to light the world on fire, but he also won’t accidentally blow off his thumb. He makes good decisions in the pocket and finds the open man while limiting mistakes.
With an elite defense and an abundance of skill players at its disposal, Dallas can survive with a strong game manager under center. That’s exactly the type of team that can beat the reigning-champion Rams, as we well learned on Monday Night Football. The 49ers destroyed Matthew Stafford, limited L.A.’s run game, and kept the Rams out of the end zone all night. To the average fan, it was boring. To fans of defense and fundamentals, it was perfection.
The Cowboys have all the pieces necessary to upset the Rams and continue their miserable Super Bowl hangover. Linebacker Micah Parsons has looked like a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, while Trevon Diggs and the Dallas secondary have stifled opposing passing games. If L.A. thinks it can just force-feed Cooper Kupp downfield all game and dominate the Cowboys, it’s got another thing coming. Give me the ‘Boys to cover.
NFL WEEK 5 PICKS: Against the spread | Moneyline Picks
Eagles (-5) at Cardinals
The Eagles are the last undefeated team standing (and No. 1 in our power rankings!), playing remarkable football on both sides of the ball. They have seen year-to-year improvements in the pass-rush, secondary, offensive line, running game, and passing game. The most impressive part of Philly’s transcendence from pretender to contender: Jalen Hurts.
With stud wideout A.J. Brown in town, Hurts has almost immediately entered himself into the MVP conversation. He’s seeing the field and making his reads so much better. He’s not rushing throws or tucking the ball to run as quickly as in his first couple of seasons. He’s completing far more passes, throwing the ball deeper, and controlling the time of possession.
Philly is clicking on all cylinders and now gets to roll into Glendale to face a Cardinals team that would be 1-3 if not for Hunter Renfrow’s costly overtime fumble a couple of weeks ago. While Philly loves life with its new WR1, Arizona desperately misses suspended All-Pro receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Both Kyler Murray and James Conner have also struggled to establish the run.
The Cardinals won’t be able to keep up with Philly offensively, nor will their defense be able to contain Hurts. Arizona has surrendered 25.7 points per game this season, and Hurts and the Eagles are 9-1 in the last 10 games in which they have posted 24 or more points. Philadelphia is 3-1 against the spread this season, while Arizona is 0-2 ATS as a home underdog. Lock this in!
Others worth a look: Seahawks (+5.5) at Saints, Lions (+3) at Patriots
MORE NFL WEEK 5: Power Rankings
Best NFL moneyline bets Week 5
Chargers (-161) at Browns
We love what we have seen from running back Nick Chubb and the Browns this season, but Cleveland won’t have enough to measure up to Justin Herbert and the Chargers. With Austin Ekeler finally turning it up in the ground game and stud wideout Keenan Allen hoping to finally return from his hamstring injury, Los Angeles might have too many weapons to contain.
The Browns had the softest first month in the NFL, opening against the Panthers, Jets, Steelers, and Falcons. Yet, they’re 2-2 despite Chubb looking like a rushing king. This will be a rude awakening for Cleveland, especially if edge rusher Myles Garrett misses another game due to a shoulder injury sustained in his recent car accident. Take the easy money here.
Broncos (-177) vs. Colts
The Broncos might have lost to the Raiders last week — in addition to losing Javonte Williams to a season-ending knee injury — but Denver fans should keep their heads up. Russell Wilson and top wideout Courtland Sutton are clearly on the same page, Melvin Gordon III is more than sufficient in Williams’ place, and the Broncos defense remains solid.
As for the Colts, look out below. Veteran QB Matt Ryan seems washed, reigning rushing champ Jonathan Taylor is in a walking boot, and Shaq Leonard has a broken nose and concussion. Woof! With a deteriorating offensive line and a below-average defense, Indy could get wrecked at Mile High by a more talented Broncos team.
Dolphins (-173) at Jets
The Dolphins have endured plenty of early-season drama, but they have reasons for optimism going into Week 5, starting with veteran Teddy Bridgewater backing up the concussed Tua Tagovailoa. They also have the best 1-2 receiving punch in the NFL in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and they have a solid defense that should be able to force second-year Jets QB Zach Wilson into plenty of mistakes.
Best NFL over/under bets Week 5
Steelers at Bills: UNDER 47 (-110)
The Bills are massive 14-point favorites in this one, which means sportsbooks are projecting this one to finish something like 31-17. That might be giving too much credit to a banged-up Bills defense and too little credit to an underrated Steelers defense. Sure, Pittsburgh rookie QB Kenny Pickett suffered a few interceptions in his debut last week after replacing Mitch Trubisky in the second half, but review the game film and you’ll realize that Pickett’s line looks far worse than he did. Two of those picks were tipped by the QB’s target receiver, and the third was a last-second Hail Mary into the end zone. I like Buffalo to win, but I’d be surprised if it was by 14 with 47-plus total points on the board.
Falcons at Buccaneers: UNDER 48 (-110)
This might be another reactionary line from the sportsbooks after the Bucs surrendered a boatload of points to the Chiefs in a 41-31 Week 4 loss. Let’s face it: Atlanta without Cordarrelle Patterson (knee) is a much different test than Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Before Tampa got rolled last weekend, its defense had allowed three, 10, and 14 points to Dallas, New Orleans, and Green Bay, respectively. That’s three playoff teams! Go with 78 percent of sharp bettors and take the UNDER at Raymond James Stadium here.
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Best NFL player prop bet Week 5
Bengals at Ravens: JK Dobbins and Joe Mixon combine for three-plus TDs (+175 on DraftKings)
Both the Ravens and Bengals will be running early and often in this divisional clash, and Dobbins and Mixon will each be their respective team’s lead dog. Dobbins scored two TDs against a tough Bills D last weekend, while Mixon found paydirt on Thursday Night Football in Cincy’s win over Miami. In a game projected to reach 49 points, I’ll take the intriguing +175 and bet on two of the more skilled offensive players in the contest to combine for three scores.
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