When the Bills go back to Kansas City for an epic matchup of the AFC’s clear two best teams in 2022 in the biggest game of Week 6 (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS), it will be another display of a great QB rivalry between current MVP favorite Josh Allen and past MVP winner Patrick Mahomes.
The teams have been outstandingly offensively early to no one’s surprise and the defenses have held up well despite changes and injuries. The offenses seem more explosive and more diverse around the quarterbacks with more players involved in the passing game
How will the latest edition of Allen vs. Mahomes play out in a nationally televised affair? Will Andy Reid once again get the better of mentee Sean McDermott?
Here’s everything to know about betting on Bills vs. Chiefs in Week 6, including updated odds, trends and our expert’s prediction for the rematch of last year’s AFC playoff game.
NFL WEEK 6 PICKS: Against the spread | Straight-up predictions
Bills vs. Chiefs odds for Week 6
- Spread: Bills by 2.5
- Over/under: 54
- Moneyine: Bills -135, Chiefs +115
The Chiefs are in an unfamiliar situation as home underdogs in a game of this magnitude. That’s no surprise given Buffalo has been the early Super Bowl 57 favorite. The high total was necessary also given the firepower of both offenses.
(betting odds per Caesars Sportsbook)
Bills vs. Chiefs all-time series
The Bills lead the series 27-24-1. Before the Chiefs’ overtime escape in las season’s divisional playoffs, 42-36, the Bills won at Kansas City in the 2021 regular season, 38-20. Before then, the Chiefs had taken 5 of 6 meetings going back to 2013.
Three trends to know
—55 percent of spread bettors are believing in the Bills to take care of the small number on the road and win by a field goal or more.
—79 percent of total bettors are unfazed by the big number there are taking the over in this projected shootout.
—The Bills have started 3-1 against the spread this season. They were 10-7-2 last season. The Chiefs are only 2-3 ATS in 2022. They were an even 10-10 in 2021.
Three things to watch
Allen and his wide receivers
Allen is rating 107.4 so far and is getting it done with a variety of wide receivers as Stefon Diggs is getting plenty of help from Gabe Davis, Isaiah McKenzie and rookie Khalil Shakir. They present tough matchups across the board against the Chiefs’ coverage scheme. They can have another big combined game after destroying the Steelers last week.
Mahomes and his wide receivers
Tyreek Hill isn’t a Chief anymore, so Mahomes is relying on a possession and big play by committee approach after throwing often to dominant red zone and third down tight end Travis Kelce. Mahomes is extending plays to make sure someone is open where needed. He gets the Bills’ secondary at the right time with key injuries.
Who will run the ball?
The Chiefs have 128 rushing attempts in five games, averaging 4.8 yards per carry with Clyde Edwards-Helaire and others. The Bills have 115 rushing attempts, averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Both offenses can tend to get a little too pass-happy. Kansas City needs to run more to move the ball well behind its better offensive line to take pressure off Mahomes and keep Allen more off the field.
Stat that matters
78.26 percent. That’s the clip at which the Chiefs are converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns, third in the league behind the Titans and Saints. The Bills are more big-play dependent, as their red zone TD rate is only 55.56 percent, No. 20 in the league. One extra TD vs. field-goal attempt can make a big difference in this game.
Bills vs. Chiefs prediction
The Bills will want to turn this into another all-out track meet with Allen taking shots downfield. But the Chiefs will work to slow the game down and grind it by Mahomes sustaining long drives to try to control time of possession, a win for both their offense and defense. That will lead to a close home victory in the big picture.
Chiefs 31, Bills 27
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