When the Bills open the 2022 NFL season on the road against the Rams (8:20 p.m. Thursday, NBC), Week 1 will start with a bang. Buffalo is the favorite to win Super Bowl 57 and gets an immediate first test against Los Angeles, which is coming off winning Super Bowl 56 on its home field.
The Bills’ Josh Allen is the leading MVP candidate. His QB counterpart in the game, Matthew Stafford is trying to continue to change the narrative of his career after helping the Rams raise the Lombardi Trophy.
Buffalo’s defense gets a boost from new edge rusher Von Miller, who was part of the Rams’ run to a title last season. Los Angeles still has Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey as the 1-2 punch of its D.
What happens when dangerous offenses meet daunting defenses? Here’s breaking down an epic early matchup:
NFL WEEK 1 PICKS: Against the spread | Straight-up predictions
Bills vs. Rams odds for NFL Week 1
- Spread: Bills by 2.5
- Over/under: 52
- Moneyine: Bills -110, Rams -110
The Bills have been just shy of field-goal favorites on the road from the initial lines, either by 2.5 or 2 points ahead of the game, with little movement on the total. The contest is a virtual pick ’em given that margin and the even moneylines.
(betting odds per Caesars Sportsbook)
Bills vs. Rams all-time series
The Bills lead the limited series 8-5. They have won the previous two meetings, 35-32 at home in 2020 and 30-19 on the road in 2016. They have also taken 4 out of 5 and 7 of 9.
But this is the first meeting of Sean McDermott’s and Sean McVay’s teams involving Allen and Stafford. This is the bonus AFC East vs. NFC West first-place game on the interconference schedule.
Three trends to know
—64 percent of spread bettors are siding with the Bills to come through and covering the small number while winning straight up.
—59 percent of over/under bettors think the total is too low and expect explosive offense to win out
—The Bills were a solid 10-7-2 against the spread last season, including playoffs. The Rams were only 10-11 against the spread last season, including playoffs.
Three things to watch
Miller vs. the Rams
Miller is readjusting to playing end on a 4-3 base front for McDermott. The Rams are adjusting to not having long-time left tackle Andrew Whitworth, putting trust in Joe Noteboom to protect Stafford’s blindside well.
Miller and Greg Rousseau must bring the heat on Stafford to test just how healthy he is. As prolific as Stafford can be, he also can make big mistakes under pressure, as seen with him tying for a league-leading 17 interceptions last season.
Donald and Ramsey vs. the Bills
Donald will go to work on former Rams teammate Rodger Saffold and the Bills’ interior line trying to get to Allen. Saffold and another savvy blocker, center Mitch Morse, will be charged with keeping Donald at bay. Ramsey has a couple of coverage assignments outside in Stefon Diggs and rising start Gabe Davis. If neither Rams superstar can dominate, Allen should find the time and the open men to execute his key big plays.
Cooper Kupp vs. the Bills
The Bills will be without top cornerback Tre’Davious White (knee) and former No. 2 Levi Wallace plays for the Steelers. That brings up a tall order for defensive backs Kaiir Elam, Dane Jackson and Taron Johnson. Look for the Bills to try to contain with double-teams and safety help and take their chances with Rams new No. 2 Allen Robinson. McVay will be aware of this and scheme Kupp open and set up plays for Robinson.
Stat that matters
176.7. That’s how many passing yards per game on average the Bills gave up last season, good for No. 1 in the NFL. The Rams, despite having a good rush and Ramsey, gave up 238 on average, No. 21 in the NFL.
The Rams will try to run effectively to take pressure off Stafford and set up favorable play-action. The Bills might be inclined to aggressively throw downfield away from Ramsey while also letting Allen loose with legs to extend pass plays.
Bills vs. Rams prediction
While much hype will be made about the offenses of both teams coming out of the gate, the tones will be set by the defenses. This feels like a nip-and-tuck feeling-out, physical game where the scoring will be tight early before Allen and Stafford duel well late. In the end, Buffalo finds the end zone one more key time to flex as the new team to beat in the NFL.
Bills 24, Rams 23
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