Ohio State suffered a debilitating blow to its hopes of making the College Football Playoff in Week 13. Debilitating, but not fatal.
The Buckeyes no longer control their Playoff destiny and won’t be able to compete for a Big Ten championship after falling 45-23 at home to No. 2 Michigan. But that loss, even so late in the season, doesn’t preclude Ohio State from competing in the CFP — just from controlling its destiny.
The Buckeyes have a clear path into the playoff without the need to play during conference championship week. That path was made easier to traverse on Tuesday with the penultimate CFP top 25 rankings, which saw the committee rank them fifth overall.
If you’re not going to be among the top four teams heading into the final week of play, then No. 5 is a good spot to be. Ohio State stands to be among the final four teams in, but it does need some help during conference championship weekend.
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With that, The Sporting News looks at how the Buckeyes can still get into the Playoff:
Can Ohio State still make College Football Playoff?
Yes, Ohio State can still make the Playoff. Indeed, ESPN lists the Buckeyes as having a 71.5 percent chance of being one of the four teams in, without even playing during conference championship weekend.
The problem is, the Buckeyes don’t have control over that, needing instead for one of two top-four teams to lose during conference championship week. Here are the two losses that would likely be enough to catapult the Buckeyes into Playoff contention:
TCU loss to Kansas State
TCU came in at No. 3 in the Week 14 College Football Playoff rankings, giving the Horned Frogs a hair’s breadth more breathing room than the team behind them. That said, Sonny Dykes’ team has long been considered among the “weakest” Playoff-caliber teams this season, and the general consensus is that the Horned Frogs only make it in with an undefeated record and Big 12 championship in tow.
The last hurdle for the team to clear before officially making it to the Playoff is No. 10 Kansas State, which secured its berth in the Big 12 title game with a 47-27 victory over rival Kansas on Saturday. It’s worth noting that the Wildcats held a 28-10 lead over TCU in Fort Worth before surrendering a 28-0 run by the Horned Frogs.
This game is in neutral territory at Arlington’s AT&T Stadium, and the Wildcats know they have what it takes to beat TCU, which has five wins of one possession this season.
USC loss to Utah
Coming in at No. 4 in the penultimate rankings is USC, which at 11-1 needs to beat No. 11 Utah to become the first Pac-12 team since Washington in 2016 to make the Playoff.
Therein lies the challenge: The Trojans have already lost to the Utes this season, surrendering leads of 21-7 and 28-14 to ultimately fall on the road, 43-42. A win over Utah would avenge USC’s only loss this year, but the issues that plagued the Trojans in that game remain the same several weeks later.
Even in the five ensuing wins after the Utah loss, USC has given up an average of 32.2 points per game on defense. The Utes were mentally tougher down the stretch in these teams’ first meeting. If it comes down to the wire again, will the Trojans have what it takes to pull out the victory?
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Ohio State strength of schedule
Assuming one of TCU or USC loses, then Ohio State would be able to lay claim to a Playoff spot. But there also exists the potential that the committee won’t want to punish the Horned Frogs or Trojans for losing on conference championship weekend when Ohio State isn’t even playing.
To that end, the Buckeyes have what ESPN ranks as the 34th-toughest strength of schedule, one spot ahead of TCU at 35th and 23 spots ahead of USC at 57th. Moreover, the Buckeyes have a ranked victory over Notre Dame on their schedule (the same as USC).
Ohio State strength of record
Likewise, Ohio State has a significant strength of record, coming in at No. 4 overall despite the one loss to Michigan. That said, TCU’s strength of record comes in at No. 1, while USC’s is sixth.
All told, it seems as if Ohio State’s best bet to make the Playoff would be with a USC loss, as opposed to a TCU one (though either would likely move the Buckeyes in).
Ohio State ranks ahead of the Trojans in several key metrics, and a loss by USC would not only eliminate the teams’ common opponent argument (USC won 38-27 vs. the Fighting Irish, who lost 21-10 to Ohio State) but would drop the Trojans to two losses.
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