Can USA soccer team make it out of World Cup Group B? Projecting USMNT matches vs England, Iran, Wales

The U.S. national soccer team was drawn into Group B for the 2022 FIFA World Cup alongside England, Iran, and Wales.

It shapes up to be a well-balanced group and one from which USMNT supporters believe the Americans can qualify to the knockout rounds by finishing among the top two.

While No. 5-ranked England are the favorites to take up one of those qualifying spots, the USA (No. 16), Wales (No. 19) and even Iran (No. 20) will feel like the second berth is within reach of results fall their way.

Here we look at what it would take for the USA to advance out of the group and what potential matchups will be awaiting in the knockout rounds.

WORLD CUP DRAW BREAKDOWNS:
Group A | Group B | Group C | Group D
Group E | Group F | Group G | Group H

2022 World Cup Group B odds

Odds via BetMGM

England is one of the favorites to not only win the group but also to win the World Cup, currently with the fourth-best odds to do so.

The United States is second-favorite to win the group and expected to reach the knockout round, but Wales is not too far behind. 

MORE: Full 2022 World Cup match schedule

World Cup Group B schedule at Qatar 2022

As Group B plays on the second day of the tournament, the U.S. players will have a very quick turnaround from the break in the European club season to the start of the World Cup, with very little chance of preparation.

That first match will come against UEFA playoff qualifier Wales, and a result will be necessary if the USA can have any realistic hope of progressing to the knockout rounds.

The Americans then play against England on Black Friday, followed by a final group match against Iran that could decide who escapes and who goes home.

MORE: USA draws England in World Cup with Black Friday match

Group B match schedule

What does USA need to qualify for knockout round?

In all likelihood, the USA will need a minimum of four points to have a chance to escape the group, with anything more improving their chances considerably.

In the 2018 World Cup, of the eight groups, only two teams advanced with four points, while all other groups featured a second-place winner sporting five or six points.

In 2014, when the U.S. advanced to the Round of 16, it landed on four points, second to winners Germany and level with Portugal, but advancing on goal differential. In 2010, another edition in which the U.S. advanced past the group stage, it topped the group with a five-point total, finishing ahead of England on goal differential thanks to the famous 91st minute goal by Landon Donovan against Algeria in the final group-stage match.

MORE: Group B breakdown with USA, England, Iran, Wales

For the USA to earn at least four points, that will require the USA to collect a result against two of the three teams in the group, with at least one win. For purposes of this projection exercise, we’ll give the USA a loss against No. 5-ranked England.

That leaves Wales and Iran, two matches that sandwich the England showdown. The most intriguing of the two will be the Wales match. The USMNT hasn’t generally performed well against European opposition and drew 0-0 with Wales in November 2020. At least a draw in the Wales match will be critical. If it ends in a loss it’ll truly be an uphill battle for the Americans.

Beating Iran also won’t be easy. The Asian side has the longest odds to escape the group despite the fact that it’s a Pot 3 representative and it finished top of its final qualifying group. The U.S. has only faced Iran twice in history, and that includes an infamous loss in the 1998 World Cup. 

Of course, a victory against both Wales and Iran would clinch one of the top two spots in Group B no matter the result against England.

Who could USMNT play in knockout rounds at World Cup 2022?

If the United States is able to qualify from the group and reach the knockout stage, it has a potential friendly draw awaiting in the Round of 16.

In the more likely result that the U.S. finishes second in the group to title challengers England, the U.S. would play the team that finishes atop Group A. Since Group A automatically includes the hosts as per FIFA tradition — Qatar are ranked No. 50 in the world — that means the U.S. would be matching up against a group winner that will not be among the top seven teams in the world. The Netherlands is the highest-ranked team at No. 8.

Group A, featuring the Netherlands, Senegal, and Ecuador, will pose a challenge, but it’s still preferred when compared to facing the likes of Brazil, Spain, and Argentina who are favorites to win other groups in the tournament. 

If the U.S. were to surprise and win Group B, it would instead face the second-place finisher in Group A, an even tastier possibility. That would have fans dreaming of the chance of reaching the World Cup quarterfinals — an accomplishment last achieved in 2002. Lionel Messi’s Argentina or defending champions France would likely be the opponent in the final eight.

World Cup Round of 16 schedule

World Cup Quarterfinals schedule