Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season features an abundance of great offensive matchups, perhaps none more appealing than the interconference clash between the Chiefs and the Cardinals (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS). The Chiefs will be looking to return to old glory with a new look, fresh off a ’21 campaign that broke their run of two consecutive Super Bowl appearances. The Cardinals will be looking to build off a strong 11-6 finish in ’21, shooting for their first divisional crown since ’15.
In his sixth year as a pro, superstar QB Patrick Mahomes will lead a Chiefs team that looks a bit different than it did when it won Super Bowl LIV and lost Super Bowl LV. The biggest change: one fewer All-Pro on each side of the ball. Wideout Tyreek Hill is now in Miami and safety Tyrann Mathieu is in New Orleans. KC has won at least 12 games in all but one season since 2015 and notched double-digit wins every year but one over the past decade.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, come off a season in which things finally clicked for coach Kliff Kingsbury and franchise QB Kyler Murray. However, they also have some adjustments to make. Arizona will play its first six games without All-Pro DeAndre Hopkins (suspension), and no longer enjoys the services of RB Chase Edmonds (Miami), WR Christian Kirk (Jacksonville), LB Jordan Hicks (Vikings), and EDGE Chandler Jones (Raiders). Phoenix will welcome some ‘Hollywood’ to the desert, though, having traded for speedy playmaking WR Marquise Brown this offseason.
NFL WEEK 1 PICKS: Against the spread | Straight-up predictions
Everyone seems to be expecting a high-scoring shootout in this opening-weekend affair, which will serve as one of the highlights of the late-afternoon slate. But maybe we should look into this matchup a bit more before pounding the OVER. As always, we will research the stats, analyze the betting trends, and find the angles to attack.
Here’s everything to know about betting on Chiefs vs. Cardinals in Week 1, including updated odds, trends, storylines, and our prediction.
WEEK 1 NFL BETTING: Odds, lines, totals | Best bets
Chiefs vs. Cardinals odds for Sunday afternoon
Betting odds from Sports Interaction
- Spread: Chiefs -6
- Over/under: O 53.5 (-110) | U 53.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Chiefs -255 | Cardinals +205
According to BetQL, the spread opened with Kansas City favored by a field goal when the NFL released the schedule in May. That -3 held right up through the end of August, then started shifting last week as the action poured in for the Chiefs. Similarly, the moneyline opened at KC -160 but has shifted all the way to -255. A win on a $100 moneyline bet would now net you under $40 profit. The over/under has stayed pretty consistent — it opened at 53, jumped to 54 last week, and has settled at 53.5.
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Chiefs vs. Cardinals all-time series
The Chiefs have historically dominated the Cardinals, dating back to the 1970s when the Cards were based out of St. Louis. Kansas City enjoys a 9-3-1 lifetime record against the Cardinals, and four of these franchises’ past five meetings have ended favorably for the Chiefs. Mahomes and Murray have never faced each other, though. The last time these squads met was 2018, one year before the Cards drafted their franchise QB. Mahomes has also never faced Kingsbury, his college coach at Texas Tech, since entering the NFL.
Chiefs vs. Cardinals: Three trends to know
—Including the playoffs, the Chiefs were 10-10 against the spread last season and 4-4 ATS on the road. The Cardinals were 6-1 ATS as underdogs in 2021.
—Arizona’s defense allowed zero 300-yard passing performances last season, and only the Rams and 49ers even reached 280 air yards against the Cards. All said, Arizona allowed just 214.4 passing yards per game and a staggering 202.6 air yards per home game. Seven of Mahomes’ 11 losses since December 2018 have come when he netted 273 or fewer passing yards.
—The Cardinals have started hot in each of their past two seasons, going 5-2 at the beginning of the 2020 campaign and 7-0 at the start of last season. During that seven-game winning streak, Arizona held its opponents to 16.2 points per game. Dating back to 2017, the Chiefs are 2-10 when they score 17 points or fewer.
Chiefs vs. Cardinals: Three things to watch
What will Kansas City’s offense look like without Tyreek Hill?
The ‘Cheetah’ played a vital role in Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy’s offense over the past half-decade and helped make Patrick Mahomes a household game. But Hill wanted out, obviously wanting to get paid and knowing he would make more away from Arrowhead and Mahomes’ $450 million contract. Life after Tyreek will be an adjustment — nobody spreads the field like he can. The Chiefs lost the past two regular-season games they played without Hill. They still have elite TE Travis Kelce and plenty of playmaking potential with slot-man JuJu Smith-Schuster, speedsters Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Mecole Hardman, and rookie Skyy Moore, but none of them can wear TyFreak’s shoes.
Can the Chiefs defense survive without Tyrann Mathieu?
The Chiefs’ secondary went from poor to downright troubling this offseason after the ‘Honey Badger’ took his talents to the Bayou. With Mathieu now a Saint, Kansas City won’t have as many bailouts from the safety position this season. Sure, stud CB Trent McDuffie and edge rusher George Karlaftis were strong first-round draft picks, but Andy Reid’s squad needed more additions than it made to be a title-contending defense. KC ranked 27th in total yards (368.9 per game) and passing yards (251.4) surrendered last season while allowing a collective 92.0 passer rating. That all bodes well for Murray, who has career averages of 261.9 passing yards and a 105.9 rating in wins, and 235.3 passing yards and an 84.9 rating in losses.
Will the Cardinals continue to excel without Chase Edmonds or DeAndre Hopkins?
One of the biggest surprises of the ’21 season for the Cards was RB James Conner’s touchdown production. The veteran scored 15 rushing TDs and found the end zone 18 times total. Looking at his efficiency numbers — 3.7 yards per carry, 1.6 average yards before contact, three total rushes of 20-plus yards — touchdown regression seems inevitable here. Without Edmonds, who served as a solid change-of-pace and receiving back last year, we wonder if that regression may happen sooner than later. Then there’s the ‘Nuk Hopkins suspension to consider and how that will affect Murray’s big-play ability. Hollywood Brown should see plenty of opportunities, but who else will step up to take some pressure off the newest Cardinal receiver? Rondale Moore has been a preseason favorite to take over the role vacated by Christian Kirk, but both Moore (undisclosed) and tight end Zach Ertz (calf) have been banged up.
Chiefs vs. Cardinals: Stat that matters
263.6. That’s how many passing yards per game Kansas City allowed on the road last season, second most in the NFL behind Baltimore. Murray has won seven of his past nine games in which he exceeded 260 passing yards.
Chiefs vs. Cardinals: Prediction
The sharp money has been on the Chiefs and the OVER, with BetQL currently estimating 54-percent of sharps on the -6 and over 80-percent on the OVER 53.5. Consider us out on both those metrics because we are taking the Cardinals +6 and the UNDER. Kansas City’s roster has taken two massive blows — one on each side of the ball — and the Chiefs will need some time to adapt to life without Hill and Mathieu.
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Murray, Kingsbury, and company have established themselves as well prepared and tough to beat early in the season, especially at home. The Chiefs still field a slightly better offense, especially with Hopkins sidelined with the suspension, but KC’s defense is nowhere near where it needs to be.
Don’t touch either moneyline here, as Mahomes can (and probably will) make magic happen like usual. But bet the Cardinals +6 with confidence, as this spread should have stayed at a field goal. Also, don’t succumb to the pressure from the OVER crowd — these offenses are shells of their 2021 selves, Arizona has a better defense than fair-weather bettors realize, and it’s the first game of each squad’s season. The Chiefs will most likely win, but not by a touchdown. Murray has lost by over three points in the first half of a season just once since 2020.
Chiefs 27, Cardinals 24
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