The Chiefs will look to stay undefeated on Sunday afternoon when they go on the road to play the winless Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium (1 p.m. ET, CBS), the first time since 2019 that these two AFC teams will face each other.
Kansas City is coming off a tough 27-24 win over the Chargers last week on Thursday Night Football. The Chargers’ defense did a good job of not allowing either Travis Kelce or Juju Smith-Schuster to beat them, but Mahomes still threw two touchdowns in the Week 2 victory. The Chiefs’ defense also did their job, sacking Justin Herbert twice and intercepting one of his passes for a game-changing pick-six. Kansas City will look to get their offense humming against a Colts team that was humiliated in Week 2.
The Colts are reeling after being shut out 24-0 by Jacksonville last week on the road. Indianapolis’ offense missed wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. as Matt Ryan had to lean on Ashton Dulion at receiver. Ryan had a rough day under center, only completing 16-of-30 passes for 195 yards and three interceptions while getting sacked five times on a dreadful day for the offense. Star running back Jonathan Taylor was held in check with 10 touches for 63 yards. The Colts will look to turn it around Sunday as they should have Pittman Jr. back, along with standout linebacker Shaquille Leonard.
WEEK 3 NFL PICKS: ATS | Straight up
Below, we’ll give you all the information you need before placing a wager on Chiefs-Colts, including the updated odds from Sports Interaction, staff tips, and our prediction for this Week 3 AFC matchup.
Betting odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
- Spread: Chiefs -5.5
- Over/Under: 50.5
- Moneyline: Chiefs -248, Colts +206
To no one’s surprise, the Chiefs enter Sunday’s contest as almost full touchdown favorites. It would not be crazy to think that this line reaches -7 by kickoff. If the spread gets to seven, the best bet would be to take the Colts, who are not that bad when fully healthy. The over/under total is locked in at 50 points, which tells us that the Chiefs will be able to score some points on the Colts’ defense.
Chiefs vs. Colts all-time series
The Colts lead the all-time series over the Chiefs with a record of 17-10. Indianapolis has also won three out of the past five matchups, with the latest win happening on Oct. 9, 2019 (19-13 over KC). The last time the Chiefs defeated the Colts was in the divisional round of the 2018 playoffs. Kansas City won that contest 31-13, thanks to three rushing touchdowns and an excellent performance from Damien Williams (25 carries for 129 yards). The quarterback for the Colts in that playoff game was none other than Andrew Luck.
Three trends to know
— The Chiefs are 5-13 against the spread in 18 games against the Colts and are 4-14 straight up over that span.
— Meanwhile, the Colts haven’t had a ton of success at home lately as they are 5-10 ATS in their past 15 games.
— However, the good news for Indianapolis is that they are 16-8 straight up and 16-7-1 ATS under Frank Reich coming off a division game, according to BetQL’s Dan Karpuc. Additionally, the Colts are 9-3 straight up after recording 75 rushing yards or less in their previous game.
Take advantage of BetQL’s 3-day free trial and see all of our best bets across all sports, including college football, NFL and MLB!
Three things to watch for
Can Jonathan Taylor get back on track?
Taylor was held in check last week by the Jaguars’ defense as that game got out of hand quickly for the Colts. The star running back only had nine carries for 54 yards, which is not enough for a player who was in the running Offensive Player of the Year last season. The last time Taylor had fewer than 10 carries in a game was his rookie season in 2020 (Week 10 vs. Titans — seven carries for 12 yards). The Colts ended up winning that game 34-17, but for this year’s team to have success, the offense needs to go through Taylor. The Chiefs’ run defense is allowing 89 yards per game through two weeks. Despite the Chiefs’ early-season success in stopping the run, the Colts need to give Taylor the ball at least 20 times to keep it close.
Which Kansas City wide receiver will have the next breakout game?
Last week against the Chargers, Los Angeles did a good job of making sure Juju Smith-Schuster did not beat them. However, Mahomes still found a way to throw a touchdown pass to depth wide receiver Justin Watson for 41 yards. Without Tyreek Hill, Mahomes has a chance to spread the ball around to multiple wideouts on the field at any given time. In Week 1, we saw Smith-Schuster have six receptions for 79 yards, Marquez Valdes-Scantling with four receptions for 44 yards, and Mecole Hardman bring a touchdown reception. It would not be a surprise to see Smith-Schuster and Valdes-Scantling find the endzone, especially with the attention that Travis Kelce commands.
Is Matt Ryan on the decline?
After throwing for 352 yards and a touchdown on 50 passing attempts in Week 1, Ryan got hammered by the Jaguars’ defense last Sunday. Jacksonville sacked the veteran quarterback five times and forced him into three interceptions. If the Colts want to win on Sunday, they need the offensive line to play better and Ryan to make better reads. The last time Ryan threw three interceptions in a game was Week 2 last season against the Buccaneers. Kansas City’s defensive line is no joke with Chris Jones, Frank Clark, and rookie George Karlaftis. If Ryan cannot stay upright in the pocket and get the ball to his receivers, it will be a long day for Colts.
Stat that matters
73. This is Mahomes’ completion percentage through the first two weeks of this season. The all-world signal-caller has not had any issues as he’s getting everybody involved on offense. One week, it could be the Kelce game, while the next game, we could see the running backs be a factor in the passing game. This season, Indianapolis’ defense is allowing quarterbacks to complete 71.6 percent of their passes, which is a recipe for disaster on Sunday.
Chiefs vs. Colts prediction
If the Colts have Michael Pittman Jr. and Shaquille Leonard on the field, they have a shot to keep the game close. Pittman Jr. is their best wide receiver, while Leonard is one of the best linebackers in the game. We expect Taylor to get the ball more, which should keep the Chiefs’ offense off the field. The Chiefs’ offense will get their points, but it should be another close game like we saw in Week 2 against the Chargers. However, Kansas City comes away with the win, while the Colts move to 0-2-1.
PREDICTION: Chiefs 30, Colts 24. Kansas City covers (-5.5) and the game goes OVER.
Hits: 0
