China’s Cutting-Edge Chip Dreams Just Died

The Dutch government has confirmed that it will stop the most advanced semiconductor manufacturing machines making their way to China and other countries viewed as an active threat.

As Politico reports(Opens in a new window), an agreement was reached between the US and Netherlands back in January to impose technology export restrictions, but it has taken until now for Dutch officials to work out the details. Yesterday, a letter was published(Opens in a new window) by Dutch Foreign Trade Minister Liesje Schreinemacher confirming export licenses will be required for certain categories of Dutch technology.

Although China isn’t mentioned specifically, the focus of the export controls is clearly on chip manufacturing, with Schreinemacher stating in the letter: “Given the technological developments and geopolitical context, the government has concluded that it is necessary for the (inter)national security to expand the existing export controls on specific manufacturing equipment for semiconductors.”

This will come as another serious blow for China’s semiconductor industry because the Netherlands is home to ASML, which dominates the market for producing the most advanced deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography systems. Without access to such technology, China can’t produce sub-10nm chips unless it finds an alternative manufacturing solution or partner. That’s unlikely in the short term considering the US and Japan are also restricting exports to the country.

ASML has released a statement(Opens in a new window) in response to the new export controls announcement, stating “It will take time for these controls to be translated into legislation and take effect … we do not expect these measures to have a material effect on our financial outlook.”

The company also points out that the restrictions will only apply to the “most advanced” immersion lithography tools. ASML wants clarification from the Dutch government on what that actually means, but points out “customers that are primarily focused on the mature nodes are well served with less advanced immersion lithography tools.” In other words, ASML thinks it will continue to have a healthy business of selling less advanced equipment to its customers in China.

The clairifcation ASML desires will likely appear alongside a national export control list the Dutch government intends to publish by the summer.

China is already considering its options regarding the future of its own semiconductor industry. The future may lie with RISC chips, but a huge amount of investment and homegrown talent will be required to solve the advanced manufacturing problems presented by a lack of access to the latest technologies. It certainly doesn’t help that Chinese students view chipmaking as “too hard and not that well-paid.” Meanwhile, Chinese firms are currently filling warehouse with chip components and equipment.

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