The 12-team College Football Playoff is down to seven teams, and the quarterfinal matchups for New Year’s Day are set. The first quarterfinal game saw a big upset, as Miami (FL) beat No. 1 Ohio State outright 24-14 as a 7.5-point underdog.
Our college football handicapping trio of Corbie Craig, Ed Feng and Matt Russell provide a best bet on the CFP quarterfinal games below.
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Odds courtesy of BetMGM. This file will be updated.
Craig: Oregon looked dominant against James Madison, and credit to JMU for reaching the CFP — but that game did little to prepare the Ducks for what’s next. There’s been no meaningful carryover from that matchup into this spot against Texas Tech, a team that quietly benefited the most from the bye week.
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After dealing with significant injuries all season, the Red Raiders now get extra rest with their starting QB Behren Morton finally healthy and back into rhythm — a factor the market hasn’t fully priced in. Texas Tech is the more complete team here and set up to prove it.
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Bet: Texas Tech +2.5 (-110)
Craig: Alabama’s comeback win over Oklahoma looks far better in the box score than it did on the field. The Sooners jumped out to a 17–0 lead and controlled much of the game before a pick-six, muffed punt and multiple missed field goals flipped the script and allowed Alabama to escape with an outright win. In my postgame simulations, Oklahoma still won that matchup nearly 60% of the time despite losing by double digits.
That mispricing opens value in Round 2, where the market continues to overrate Alabama. Health remains a concern, and the Tide have relied heavily on opponent mistakes rather than clean execution (case in point Auburn, which fumbled on its final drive in its attempt tie the game). With neutral turnover variance, my numbers make Indiana closer to an 8-point favorite.
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Bet: Indiana -6.5 (-120)
Feng: Alabama is not an elite team, and the Crimson Tide were lucky to have made the playoff with three losses. They started the season getting crushed 31-17 by a Florida State team that ended the season 5-7. Alabama had a stretch during the season in which it made that game seem like a fluke, beating Georgia and pulling away from a good Vanderbilt team.
Then Alabama had a stretch of games in which it won close games at Missouri, vs. South Carolina and at Auburn … followed by getting destroyed by Georgia in the SEC championship game, and the game against Oklahoma that could have turned out differently if not for a pick-six gift from John Mateer. My numbers have an elite Indiana team by 11.
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Bet: Indiana -6.5
Craig: It was fun while it lasted, but I’m selling Ole Miss in the post–Lane Kiffin era after an easy opening win in the College Football Playoff against Tulane. As discussed last week, former defensive coordinators elevated to the role of head coach midseason often see a dip in defensive efficiency as responsibilities expand beyond one unit. That regression didn’t show up against an inferior opponent, but an SEC-level matchup is far less forgiving — and asking the Rebels to squeeze by again feels optimistic at best.
Bet: Georgia 1H team total over 14.5
Feng: Georgia and Ole Miss sailed over the pre-game total of 56.5 in a 43-35 win for Georgia at home earlier this season. How will this playoff game at a neutral site be any different?
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I have more confidence in the Georgia defense to have a better game in its second meeting against Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss. The Bulldogs pass defense hasn’t been great, but I would expect high recruits like CBs Ellis Robinson IV and Demello Jones to play better towards the end of their first year with significant snaps. The Georgia offense had an excellent game against a suspect Ole Miss defense, and I suspect QB Gunner Stockton will have another solid game (9.3 yards per pass attempt in the first game). My model predicts 32.5 points for Georgia.
Lean: Georgia team total over 31.5
