College Football Playoff rankings: Six unbeaten teams create four huge debates

We’re one week away from the first set of College Football Playoff rankings. 

The arguments between fan bases contending for those four spots are already flaring up, and there are some preemptive questions loaded for the selection committee — and they aren’t about the future 12-team playoff. 

The remaining six unbeaten teams in the FBS — Georgia, Ohio State, Tennessee, Michigan, Clemson and TCU — have the best playoff right now. Unlike the preseason polls, these first rankings matter a little more. A total of 18 of the 32 playoff participants opened in the top four of the initial rankings since 2014. 

MORE: Picks, predictions against the spread for Week 9

So, yeah, how the committee ranks those teams in the first set dictates what will happen later.  

College Football Playoff rankings dates

With that in mind, we look at four questions the committee will face next week: 

Debate No. 1: Should Ohio State be No. 1? 

There is a strong case to be made that the Buckeyes should be No. 1 — and they can enhance that with a blowout victory at Penn State on Saturday. Georgia is the defending national champion and can also make a statement against Florida. 

It’s close, but the Buckeyes’ loaded offense — which leads the FBS at 49.6 points per game — could sway the committee. 

Look at the average margin of victory for the Buckeyes compared to the other unbeaten teams: 

What could be the difference? Ohio State’s defense, which has improved under new coordinator Jim Knowles, ranks fifth in the FBS in scoring defense at 14.9. Georgia ranks second in scoring defense (9.2) and eighth in offense (41.7). Those are simple metrics, but sometimes they are the best ones to separate elite teams. 

You’ll also hear this question: Neutral field — Ohio State vs. Georgia — who you got? We would not be surprised if the committee picks the team that looks more dominant this weekend. 

MORE: CFP ranking release schedule, release dates and more

Debate No. 2: How many SEC teams in the top five?

We don’t think the committee will do it, but what if Georgia, Tennessee and Alabama occupy three of the four playoff spots? Imagine the collective head explosion on social media. 

The first part is easy. If the Bulldogs and Volunteers take care of business this week, there is a really good chance they will be ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the first rankings to help prop their Nov. 5 showdown in Athens. It also would show that the committee values that game more than the potential matchup between Michigan and Ohio State on Nov. 26 — at least for now. 

We said three teams in the top four. That would mean the committee places the Crimson Tide over, say, Michigan. We don’t think that would happen, but Alabama does operate on a different set of rules. 

Keep in mind the Crimson Tide opened at No. 2 last season despite the loss to Texas A&M and they have been inside the top four in the first CFP rankings every year with the exception of 2014, when they started at No. 6. Our guess is that Alabama could be ranked ahead of Clemson and TCU, the other unbeaten teams left in the FBS. 

Debate No. 3: Do you respect Clemson and TCU? 

Clemson and TCU have resumes that stack up with the other four unbeaten teams. That’s a fact. Look at the records of the teams that they have played to this point: 

The Tigers are the only team among that bunch that has played eight games, but the point stands because they are typically the playoff contender that has to defend their ACC schedule. The Horned Frogs beat four straight ranked opponents, and there is a reason they will get chippy with Big Ten fans, particularly Ohio State. This is the school that got leap-frogged by the Buckeyes in the final 2014 rankings. 

What is the next part? Any playoff contender, especially the one-loss teams, are looking for Clemson and TCU to lose. Now, a look at the records of the teams remaining on the six unbeaten teams’ regular-season schedules: 

Our guess? The committee will use this in the coming weeks more than the accumulated victories that are already on the resume. Why? It makes it easier to dismiss the Tigers or Horned Frogs if they lose. That’s wrong on every level.

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Debate 4: Should we care about two-loss teams?

We say this every year, but no two-loss team has made the College Football Playoff and we don’t foresee that scenario unfolding in 2022. No Group of 5 teams are unbeaten this year, so they’re eliminated from the playoff hunt. 

Here are the Power 5 teams with one loss or fewer heading into Week 9: 

That is 16 teams, and Clemson and Alabama are on a bye this week. Pay attention to where these teams stack up by conference and look for this dead giveaway about where they might be leaning. Will the highest-ranked two-loss team be Utah (5-2), which lost to Florida, or LSU (6-2), which beat Florida. Our guess is that the Tigers will be ahead of the Utes and some of the one-loss teams on this list. Ditto for Kentucky (5-2) if the Wildcats beat Tennessee. 

That LSU-Utah debate, however, could offer hints about how realistic the path to the playoff is for the Pac-12, which hasn’t had a team since 2016. Will their champion be placed at the bottom of the one-loss pileup? 

You don’t want to be in that conversation as a Big 12, Pac-12 or ACC champion.