College Football Playoff Scenarios from chalk to complete chaos after wild Week 12

Will the final two weeks of the College Football Playoff race be chalk or total chaos?

There are seven legitimate contenders remaining and the scenarios start with the four remaining unbeaten teams in No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Michigan and No. 4 TCU. The Buckeyes and Wolverines play on Saturday, so that trim that list down to at most three after Rivalry Week. 

Who is out now? No. 5 Tennessee got smashed 63-31 by unranked South Carolina, and No. 13 North Carolina went scoreless in the second half and fell to Georgia Tech 21-17.

Those stunning losses will knock the Volunteers and Tar Heels completely out of playoff contention.

So how many one-loss teams are still in the mix? No. 7 USC and No. 9 Clemson are the best bets now, and No. 6 LSU is still hanging around as a two-loss team with a SEC championship shot. 

That leaves five likely scenarios that could unfold over the next two weeks. 

Here is a look at the College Football Playoff scenarios heading into the last two weeks.  

College Football Playoff Scenarios

Playoff scenario No. 1: Chalk 

• 1. Georgia (13-0) 
• 2. Ohio State/Michigan (13-0) 
• 3. TCU (13-0) 
• 4. USC (12-1) 

Left out: Clemson (12-1), Ohio State/Michigan (11-1) 

This is the cleanest scenario on the board that includes three unbeaten teams. The Trojans become the fourth Power-5 champion to make the CFP by virtue of season-ending victories against Notre Dame and the Pac-12 championship. The committee places more value on that conference championship, which leaves the loser of the Ohio State-Michigan game out of the picture. The last time Lincoln Riley faced Georgia in the playoff resulted in a 54-48 thriller at the Rose Bowl. The Big Ten champion would get TCU. 

Playoff scenario No. 2: TCU or USC loses

• 1. Georgia (13-0) 
• 2. Ohio State/Michigan (13-0) 
• 3. TCU (13-0) or USC (12-1) 
• 4. Ohio State/Michigan (11-1) or Clemson (12-1) 

Left out: TCU (12-1) or USC (11-2) 

This is going to open the door for Clemson in the ACC if the Tigers beat South Carolina and North Carolina the next two weeks. Clemson would have the benefit of a conference championship, and that would prompt an argument with the Ohio State-Michigan loser, especially if it’s a blowout. The Tigers were huge beneficiaries of Tennessee’s loss, especially knowing they get a chance to beat the Gamecocks this week. If Ohio State-Michigan is a close content that might be just enough to keep Clemson out of the top 4. The Buckeyes have a better chance of winning that argument than the Wolverines thanks to an early season win over Notre Dame. 

Playoff scenario No. 3: TCU and USC lose 

• 1. Georgia (13-0) 
• 2. Ohio State/Michigan (13-0) 
• 3. Clemson (12-1) 
• 4. Ohio State/Michigan (11-1)

Left out: TCU (12-1), USC (11-2) 

If both the Horned Frogs and Trojans lose that opens up attractive matchups for the networks. Georgia would get the loser of Ohio State-Michigan, which could be a rematch of last year’s semifinal rout against the Wolverines. Clemson slides in by virtue of their ACC championship ahead of TCU and the Pac-12 champion, and they get the Big Ten champion. This isn’t a far-fetched scenario after Week 12. 

Playoff scenario No. 4: Hello two-loss LSU 

• 1. Ohio State/Michigan (13-0) 
• 2. TCU (13-0) 
• 3. Georgia (12-1) 
• 4. LSU (11-2) or USC (12-1)

Left out: Ohio State/Michigan (11-1), Clemson (12-1)

LSU wins the SEC championship and becomes the first two-loss to make the College Football Playoff. Seriously, would the committee leave the SEC champion out? It hasn’t happened yet in the College Football Playoff era. Brian Kelly’s Tigers, however, would have victories against Georgia and No. 8 Alabama, and Tennessee is out of the way now. The SEC championship is the most prestigious of the conference championship games, and that could be enough to knock out the loser of the Ohio State-Michigan game. It also could be just enough to leap-frog USC. 

Playoff scenario No. 5: Chaos 

• 1. Georgia (12-1) 
• 2. LSU (11-2) 
• 3. Ohio State/Michigan (12-1)
• 4. TCU (12-1) or Ohio State/Michigan (11-1) 

Left out: Clemson (11-2), Tennessee (10-2) and Alabama (10-2), USC (11-2), Oregon (11-2) and Utah (11-2) 

Let’s just paint it. LSU beats Georgia in the SEC championship game. The winner of the Ohio State-Michigan game loses the Big Ten championship game. TCU loses in the Big 12 championship game, and the Pac-12 champion has two losses. So, which four teams would make that mess? This might be the only one where Alabama works back into the conversation. The only conference to make it? A two-loss LSU team. Will they come up with a 12-team playoff by that Tuesday?