College Football Playoff: What USC’s loss to Utah means to Ohio State, Alabama

No. 11 Utah defeated No. 4 USC 47-24 in the Pac-12 championship game on Friday. 

With that, conference championship chaos is here.

The Utes rallied from a 17-3 deficit to knock off the Trojans for the second time this season. Quarterback Caleb Williams played through a leg injury, but the USC defense folded in the second half against the Utes. Utah won back-to–back Pac-12 championships in stunning fashion, and that could set the tone for a wild conference championship weekend. 

That left a huge impact on the Pac-12 playoff hopes, College Football Playoff picture and Heisman Trophy race. 

Ohio State makes the playoff

The celebration is on in Columbus. 

The devastating 45-23 loss to No. 2 Michigan is in the rear-view mirror now. The Buckeyes – the highest-ranked one-loss team in the rankings – will slide into at least the No. 4 spot in the final CFP rankings. 

MORE: Michigan is becoming a problem for Ryan Day

Ohio State – which averaged 44.5 points per game during the regular season – and coach Ryan Day said the Buckeyes would be a “dangerous team” if they were given a chance. That logic worked out in 2014, when the one-loss Buckeyes beat Alabama and Oregon to win the first College Football Playoff. 

This will be the Buckeyes’ fifth CFP appearance; the third under Day. Given what happened against the Wolverines, that second chance will be scrutinized. If No. 3 TCU wins on Saturday, then Ohio State likely would face No. 1 Georgia in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. Don’t rule out a semifinal rematch with Michigan either, especially if the Wolverines lose to Purdue in the Big Ten championship game. 

Pac-12 playoff drought continues

The Pac-12 had its best chance to end a CFP drought that extends back to 2016, and it will continue with USC’s loss. No two-loss team has made the College Football Playoff. 

Is this fair for the conference? In a cruel sense of irony, the Pac-12 is a victim of a rule it instituted before the season where it ditched divisions and put the top two teams in the conference championship game. Utah beat USC 43-42 in the regular season, and the rematch was not favorable.

Ohio State will benefit from not playing in a conference championship game, and it is fair to wonder what a rematch with Michigan might have looked like. It will not affect the committee’s decision. The Buckeyes will make the CFP. 

Utah will return to the Rose Bowl. No. 8 Penn State will likely be the opponent. USC could still make the New Year’s Day Six, where a Cotton Bowl bid still is possible. The Trojans also could slide down to the Valero Alamo Bowl. This is not the scenario first-year coach Lincoln Riley was hoping for, but it is still a 11-win season. 

USC is leaving the Pac-12 for the Big Ten in 2024. Was this their last chance to represent the Pac-12 in the playoff? We will find out next season. 

A TCU loss gives Bama life 

Is there room for more chaos? No. 3 TCU plays No. 10 Kansas State in the Big 12 championship game on Saturday. What happens if the Horned Frogs lose? 

MORE: Betting trends to know ahead of TCU-Kansas State

Get ready for an argument with No. 6 Alabama. If any team can back-door into the CFP with two losses, it’s the Crimson Tide. There is one sticking point to the debate. Alabama’s “best victory” by the rankings is No. 20 Texas – and the Horned Frogs also beat the Longhorns. 

Alabama lost two games by a combined total of four points, so in the event of a TCU loss the score could affect the perception in the committee room. TCU should win that argument. Will they? 

Understand that when it comes to Alabama, all bets are off. 

Caleb Williams could still win Heisman 

Williams was phenomenal in the first quarter. He hit 8 of 9 passes, totaled 186 yards and two TDs and staked the Trojans to a two-TD lead. Williams, however, was hobbled by a leg injury in the second half. He tried to rally USC, but fourth-quarter turnovers fizzled the rally. 

So, who wins the Heisman? Williams, TCU’s Max Duggan, Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud and Georgia’s Stetson Bennett are the only candidates on the board. This loss will lead to wide-open with no clear-cut winner, and that’s why Williams could still win the award.