College football rankings: Tennessee’s back-door playoff scenario remains wide open

Tennessee is the first team out of the College Football Playoff according to the third set of rankings, but the back door is wide open. 

That is the message the CFP committee sent by putting the Volunteers at No. 5 on Tuesday. Tennessee (8-1) is the top one-loss team behind the unbeaten quartet of No. 1 Georgia (9-0), No. 2 Ohio State (9-0), No. 3 Michigan (9-0) and No. 4 TCU (9-0). 

The Volunteers lost 27-13 in Week 10 to Georgia, but the path toward an at-large berth is not just feasible for Tennessee. It’s looking like a good bet. What is that path to the back-door playoff berth? It’s a six-step process. 

MORE: What a 12-team bracket would look like

Tennessee’s path to College Football Playoff 

Three straight blowouts. The Volunteers have Missouri, South Carolina and Vanderbilt left on the schedule; meaning they won’t add to their total of five victories against ranked teams. 

They can flex an offense led by Heisman Trophy candidate Hendon Hooker, however. Tennessee ranks first in the FBS in total offense (523.7) and second in scoring offense (45.3); which is a touch behind Ohio State (45.8). Tennessee can enhance their case by leading the FBS in both of those categories at the end of the season and make that offense even more attractive for the committee. Sometimes a high-scoring offense is too much to pass up. 

Georgia wins the SEC. Tennessee needs to root for that scenario at this point. The Vols already have head-to-head victories against No. 7 LSU (7-2) and No. 9 Alabama (7-2), and that would eliminate a November run by No. 11 Ole Miss (8-1), who could get to Atlanta with a victory against the Crimson Tide in Week 11 and a loss by LSU. Tennessee’s loss to the Bulldogs was one-sided, but that was on the road. The committee clearly isn’t treating it as a bad loss. 

MORE: Week 11 picks against the spread | Heisman race | Bowl projections

Ohio State-Michigan is a snoozer. If either the Buckeyes or Wolverines win convincingly in what could be the first 11-0 showdown between the teams since 2006, then that would decrease the appetite for a two Big Ten-team playoff. It would almost be more beneficial for the Volunteers if the Buckeyes win at home here; because that could set up a potential semifinal matchup between the two best offenses in the FBS. If Michigan wins here, then Ohio State and Tennessee would be a tough call depending on the score of The Game. 

TCU loses. That would all-but eliminate the Big 12 from the picture. The Horned Frogs are the last unbeaten standing, but would a Big 12 championship game register with the committee at that point? After all, the rest of the teams in the Big 12 have at least three losses.

Win the Oregon debate. This could be the tricky part. The Ducks lost 49-3 to Georgia in the opener. Tennessee is ranked ahead of Oregon for now, but a Pac-12 championship and the way the Ducks have played since that blowout loss could alter the committee’s viewpoint. This could be the debate that decides the last spot, and Oregon has matchups with No. 25 Washington, No. 13 Utah and Oregon State before a potential Pac-12 championship game. A Ducks’ loss in one of those games followed by a Pac-12 championship victory for a then two-loss Oregon team would be the best-case scenario. 

More Notre Dame help. The Irish knocked off No. 10 Clemson and No. 15 North Carolina. Could three-loss Notre Dame do Tennessee one more solid and knock out No. 8 USC in the regular-season finale? 

None of that is out of the question. Tennessee might be out of sight one some level on conference championship Saturday, but it is clear that they will remain in the minds of the committee if they finish as the highest one-loss team. 

Three CFP rankings takeaways 

–The USC-UCLA gap. Is it too much? The Bruins average 508.4 yards and 40.8 points per game, which is at minimum on par with the Trojans at 495.8 yards and 41 ppg. The Nov. 19 matchup is going to be a showcase for quarterbacks Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Caleb Williams, and we won’t be surprised if the Bruins are favored at home. These teams should be closer – if not back-to-back – in the rankings. 

-Is the ACC out? Clemson and North Carolina might play a highly-entertaining ACC championship game if it comes to that, and the Tar Heels are too low considering their high-flying offense around rising Heisman Trophy candidate Drake Maye. Their respective losses to Notre Dame, which is still using that five-game arrangement with the ACC, are going to end up keeping the conference out of the CFP unless something chaotic happens in the next three weeks. 

-LSU has a two-loss chance. There is a chance a two–loss team cracks the four-team field; but it just won’t be No. 9 Alabama. The Tigers still have a chance to run the table and win the SEC, and that would be a logical case for first-year coach Brian Kelly to steal a playoff berth from a one-loss conference champion or at–large berth. Imagine if LSU had knocked off Florida State in Week 1. This wouldn’t be a debate. 

MORE: Brian Kelly’s gutsy call goes down in Death Valley lore

CFP rankings heading into Week 11