College football rankings: USC playoff path is open, if it takes advantage on field

Who is the most-interesting team in the College Football Playoff rankings? 

USC is the answer. The Trojans are No. 7 in the third set of College Football Playoff rankings, which were released Tuesday. The Trojans are the lone one-loss Pac-12 team heading into the highest-visibility Week 12 game at No. 17 UCLA. USC (9-1) is the second highest one-loss team in the rankings behind No. 5 Tennessee (9-1). 

Do the Trojans have what it takes to give the Pac-12 its playoff team since Washington in 2016? The path says they can do it – but the question still stands. Can they do it? 

Yes, the path is open. Let’s play that scenario out with the six teams ahead of them. That includes the four 10-0 teams in No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Michigan and No. 4 TCU, Tennessee and No. 6 LSU (8-2).

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Let’s say Georgia wins out. That knocks out LSU in the SEC championship game. TCU wins out. That’s fine, too. Somebody has to lose the Ohio State and Michigan game, and the larger the margin the better. 

That would leave USC in a conversation with Tennessee and the Ohio State-Michigan loser at that point for the final spot. At that point, the Trojans would have everything those teams have – and something they do not. 

What do all those teams have? Heisman Trophy-caliber quarterbacks. Caleb Williams is a game-changer in the conversation with C.J. Stroud, Hendon Hooker and Blake Corum. 

Huge brand appeal. USC has a brand that stands up to Ohio State and Michigan. Tennessee might be in the SEC, but the Trojans still fall under the “good for college football when they are good” too. USC was 4-8 last season. 

How do the resumes line up? USC does not have a victory against a ranked opponent yet, but it will close out the season with three straight games against ranked teams assuming No. 18 Notre Dame beats Boston College in Week 12. The only team with more at that point would be Tennessee. 

Wins vs AP Ranked Teams

Tennessee 5
TCU 5
Clemson 3
Ohio State 2
Michigan 1
USC 0

— Peter Burns (@PeterBurnsESPN) November 15, 2022

Do the Vols have a better resume? Pitt, Florida and Kentucky are no longer ranked, but the top-10 victories against No. 8 Alabama and LSU are strong. But USC will have a conference championship at that point, and that will resonate more with the CFP committee. How many times do you hear about that being the separator? 

After all, we’ve seen Lincoln Riley do this before. He’s 22-2 in the regular season in November/December, and he led one-loss Oklahoma teams to the CFP three straight years from 2017-19. Yeah, they were knocked out by SEC teams every time, but the Sooners still got there. USC can, and it absolutely will win that argument if it runs the table against the Bruins, Irish and likely either No. 10 Utah or No. 12 Oregon in the Pac-12 championship. 

MORE: Georgia vs. Tennessee and more bowl projections

Now, can they do it? 

That is the real question. If you’re still not sold on USC, that’s OK. Check out this statistic from Sporting News college football editor Bill Trocchi: 

USC’s seven Pac-12 wins have come against teams in 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th place in the league. The win over the 6th place team was 17-14.

— Bill Trocchi (@billtrocchi) November 15, 2022

That 17-14 nail-biter was against Oregon State on Sept. 24. USC lost its only game against a ranked opponent when they fell 43-42 against then-No. 20 Utah on Oct. 15. USC might get the chance to rectify that, something Riley did at Oklahoma in 2018 against Texas in the Big 12 championship game. 

USC’s run defense will get tested by UCLA this weekend, and the combination of Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Zach Charbonnet torched the Trojans 62-33 last season. 

Notre Dame has won the last four meetings in that rivalry series, and the Irish have played up against ranked opponents all season.

USC also is 1-2 in the Pac-12 championship game, with the most recent loss coming in 2020 to Oregon. The Ducks might be on the other sideline if it comes to it. 

So, yeah, the Trojans have a long road just to get to the final table with a strong playoff case. That’s exactly why they can – or maybe can’t – do it. 

College Football Playoff takeaways 

– The SEC kept four teams in the top eight, including LSU at No. 6 and Alabama. The Tigers are still on track to be the first two-loss team to make the CFP if they can win the SEC championship. A loss from TCU in the next three weeks would open the door even more. Alabama is still not going to make the playoff, but the fact they are ahead of No. 9 Clemson (9-1) might end up keeping the Tigers out, too. 

– Ohio State and Michigan need No. 11 Penn State to win out. That would put the Nittany Lions at 10 wins and likely in the top-10 in the final rankings. That is the “other” victory both teams are hanging onto heading into The Game on Nov. 26. 

– No. 13 North Carolina (9-1) is the lowest one-loss team, and it seems out of place putting them behind No. 10 Utah (8-2), Penn State (8-2), No. 12 Oregon (8-2). The Tar Heels are clearly being penalized for a defense that ranks 110th in the FBS that allows 31.3 points per game. They still should be ranked ahead of the two-loss teams. 

College Football Playoff rankings