Texas has one heck of an underdog challenge on its hands this week. The Longhorns enter the big showdown with No. 1 Alabama as 20.5-point home underdogs.
How often, you ask, has Texas been 20-plus point underdogs at home? According to Action Network, whose database dates back to 1975, never. In fact, the biggest point spread deficit it has faced at home has been 14, against Baylor in 2014 (UT lost 28-7).
Like the Longhorns, our prognosticators face a challenge in Week 2 after going a collective 2-10 picking underdogs to pull off the upset. (Props to 2021 cellar-dweller Bill Bender for nailing Florida and Arizona.)
As a review of the contest scoring, if our experts correctly forecast an upset, they are rewarded with as many points as that team was an underdog.
| Place | Name | Record | Points |
| 1. | Bill Bender | 2-1 | 9 |
| T-2 | Zac Al-Khateeb | 0-3 | 0 |
| T-2 | Bill Trocchi | 0-3 | 0 |
| T-2 | Mike DeCourcy | 0-3 | 0 |
Mr. Bender can lead us off after his fast start in the opening week.
On to the upsets.
Odds courtesy Caesars Sportsbook
Bill Bender, lead college football writer
No. 9 Baylor (+3.5) at No. 21 BYU
The Bears are a top-10 team, and they handled the Cougars 38-24 last year. Provo will be different, and it’s a challenge for Dave Aranda’s team. The Bears are 5-1 S/U as an underdog since last season. Trust it.
Iowa State (+3.5) at Iowa
The Hawkeyes’ lack of offense has been a talking point all week, so one of two things are going to happen. Either the offense erupts against the Cyclones in a one-side rivalry. Or Iowa State breaks a six-game losing streak. If there is a year for Matt Campbell to break through, this is it.
No. 25 Houston (+3) at Texas Tech
This is a tough pick that could certainly backfire, but Tyler Shough (shoulder) is out and the Cougars should at least be able to make this one of those haywire games like last week’s triple-overtime affair with UTSA. The Red Raiders have won nine of the last 10. That’s a trend to break, but we’ll give it a shot.
Zac Al-Kahteeb, content producer
Boston College (+2.5) at Virginia Tech
Both these teams are coming off disappointing losses in which they played well below their standards (read: awful). But Boston College’s 22-21 defeat by Rutgers at least was against a Power 5 team. Virginia Tech lost 20-17 to Old Dominion — making its Sun Belt debut this season — for the second time in four years. That performance included only five successful third-down conversions on 16 attempts; 14 penalties for 100 yards; and a whopping five turnovers. The Eagles exhibited rushing and penalty concerns in Week 1, but I’m betting BC makes fewer mistakes this time around. At least, fewer than the Hokies.
No. 17 Pitt (+6) vs. No. 24 Tennessee
I’m picking Pitt to beat Tennessee in the Johnny Majors Bowl on three counts, most prominent of which is the quarterback play of Kedon Slovis in Week 1 against West Virginia. The USC transfer completed 16 of 24 passes for 308 yards and a score, and did not shrink from the rivalry stage. Second, this game is at Pitt (though Tennessee fans do travel well); and third, this Panthers team is already battle-tested, scrapping out a 38-31 vs. the Mountaineers in the opening week while Tennessee cruised to a largely effortless 59-10 rout of Ball State.
Iowa State (+3.5) over Iowa
The Hawkeyes haven’t lost in this series in seven years. Why then am I picking the Cyclones to break through for the first time since 2014? Look no further than Iowa’s 7-3 win over FCS opponent South Dakota State last week. For those who didn’t watch, that’s not a touchdown the Hawkeyes scored: It was two safeties and a field goal. The defense played lights out against the Jackrabbits, but the quarterback play of Spencer Petras (11 of 25 passing, 109 yards, one interception) continues to raise concerns. Maybe Iowa got caught looking ahead. Or … maybe this is finally the year Matt Campbell gets his first win in this series.
Bill Trocchi, senior editor
Boston College (+2.5) at Virginia Tech
Did a double take on this line. Virginia Tech lost at Old Dominion last week and there is little positive mojo around the program (having coaches stuck in an elevator will do that). Boston College has a really good quarterback in Phil Jurkovic, who had a bad game in Week 1. That game included 283 passing yards and three touchdowns, but also two interceptions and two critical sacks at the end of a 22-21 loss to Rutgers. BC bounces back. VT does not.
No. 25 Houston (+3) at Texas Tech
Houston had to go to triple overtime to beat UTSA last week, but there figures to be no letdown facing a Big 12 opponent in Week 2. The Cougars enter with the better quarterback in Clayton Tune, as Donovan Smith will be replacing TTU starter Tyler Shough after Shough suffered a shoulder injury in the opener. Texas Tech beat Houston 38-21 last season, but the Cougars get revenge.
Arizona (+10.5) vs. Mississippi State
This is a rare trip west for Mississippi State, which has only played two Pac-12 opponents on the road in school history (Oregon 2002, Washington 1977). Arizona had a strong Week 1 opener, trouncing San Diego State 38-20 on the road. New quarterback Jayden de Laura threw for 299 yards and four touchdowns, validating the whispers coming out of the Southwest that Arizona had made big strides since its 1-11 season under first-year coach Jedd Fisch.
Mike DeCourcy, senior writer
Iowa State (+3.5) at Iowa
After swinging for the fences and whiffing like I’m Oneil Cruz in Week 1, I was reminded of the lesson learned a year ago in this challenge: Just win a reasonable number of close-spread games and you won’t finish last. So why the Cyclones? Well, in playing its first game against and FCS opponent, Iowa needed two safeties to score more than 3.5 points. Gotta figure an offense struggling like that is vulnerable to an L.
No. 17 Pitt (+6) vs. No. 24 Tennessee
The opening-week victory over West Virginia was no work of art, even by Backyard Brawling standards. But giving nearly a touchdown at home to a team that scored 38 points and had impactful performances in all three phases – that seems like a lot. QB Kedon Slovis looked nothing like the reincarnation of Kenny Pickett, but he did show he was capable of performing in a high-level game. And the Pitt offensive line has to be better than it was against the Mountaineers – doesn’t it?
No. 20 Kentucky (+5.5) at No. 12 Florida
This is a magnificent opportunity for Mark Stoops to show everyone Kentucky really is a football school. Because that’s what a football school would do, you know? It would visit Gator country and leave with a W as Florida continues to celebrate that stunning victory over Utah. You know what a basketball school would do? Go down there and fail to cover. That’s what.
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