Following an entertaining Week 1 of the college football season, Saturday presents another intriguing slate of games. Top-ranked Alabama (-20) heads to Austin to face a hungry Texas bunch while No. 10 USC (-8.5) hits the road for their first conference game of the season against Stanford. After scouring the prop market and looking into some of these more noteworthy games in Week 2, we’ve found a few player props that present betting value.
If you’re one who enjoys sweating out your player prop bets by watching the games live, it’s undoubtedly more amusing to have action on a player’s OVER relative to his UNDER. While our emotional state can be considered when making bets, to be a long-term winning sports bettor, consistently betting OVERS might not lead you to the profitability you’re aiming for.
With all that being said, ultimately, it’s all about the number and its corresponding price. It’s never an exact science, but given the current odds on this week’s player props, we actually like all the following players’ OVER markets relative to their UNDER markets. Without further ado, here are our best player prop picks for Week 2 of the college football season.
MORE COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING: Week 2 ATS Picks | Updated Heisman Odds
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
Saturday’s College Football Best Bets: Advice, picks, odds, player props for Week 2
Kansas State QB Adrian Martinez OVER 0.5 interceptions thrown (+118)
Martinez is one of the more turnover-prone QBs at the Power Five level, compiling a 45:30 TD-to-INT rate over his four seasons at Nebraska. Martinez has since transferred to Kansas State for a fifth year, and his first game with the Wildcats was nothing to get overly excited about.
In Kansas State’s 34-0 victory over South Dakota, Martinez completed 11-of-15 passes for only 53 yards, with an average of 3.5 yards per attempt and a 77 passer rating. He also compiled a QBR of 17 per ESPN, which means his performance at the QB position is expected to result in a win for his team just 17 percent of the time, no bueno, especially against an FCS foe.
Only two of Martinez’s 15 pass attempts traveled further than 20-plus yards, with both passes being incompletions. With the Wildcats stepping up in class this weekend hosting Missouri, there’s a good chance Kansas State isn’t able to rely on their ground game as much as they did in Week 1. Given Martinez is forced into more obvious passing situations, there’s a chance he throws one pass into a Missouri defender’s hands.
Alabama WR Traeshon Holden OVER 51.5 receiving yards (-119)
Holden emerged as one of Alabama’s primary receivers in Week 1, hauling in five passes for 70 yards and two TDs in the Crimson Tides’ 55-0 drubbing over Utah State. While it’s nice Holden eclipsed 51.5 receiving yards in Week 1, the fact he played a total of 47 snaps (34 passing snaps) is more of a reason to buy into a second straight productive week from the 6-3 wideout.
Holden’s 47 offensive snaps were the second highest among Alabama’s WRs, trailing only Jermaine Burton (49 total snaps). Additionally, he compiled an average of 14.0 yards per reception, as his ability to aid in the intermediate-to-deep passing game is a good sign of things to come. With Alabama expected to put up their fair share of points against Texas’ defense as 20-point favorites, look for a second straight solid performance from Holden.
USC WR Jordan Addison OVER 76.5 receiving yards (-117)
Last week, we recommended wagering on Addison to go UNDER 95.5 receiving yards (-115) as we thought that number was a bit inflated. Addison ended up having an effective performance in USC’s 66-14 beatdown of Rice, snagging five passes for 54 yards and two TDs, but he still failed to eclipse the OVER on his receiving yards prop.
With the market adjusting to last weekend’s result, now’s the time to wager on Addison eclipsing OVER 76.5 receiving yards. Since the Trojans were in control of Saturday’s game for the majority of the contest, Addison logged just 26 offensive snaps, which ranked him third among USC receivers behind Mario Williams (38) and Kyron Hudson (33).
Given Saturday’s contest at Stanford projects to be a closer game with USC pegged as 8.5-point road favorites, Addison’s going to log a higher snap count which could result in a higher receiving yard output. Buy low on the 2021 Biletnikoff Award winner.
Oregon State QB Chance Nolan OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns (-135)
Nolan got off to an effective start in Oregon State’s 37-17 win over Boise State, completing 14-of-23 passes for 251 yards and two TDs. He did throw two picks in the process but logged a 143.8 passer rating on throws north of 20-plus yards (3-of-5, 148 yards, two TDs) for a 66 percent big-time throw rate.
The junior signal-caller has a chance to replicate that output against Fresno State on Saturday night, as plenty of points are expected with the current total sitting at 61.5 points. Nolan’s willingness to be aggressive with his arm can lead him to another two-plus TD showing.
Chance Nolan dropping dimes in Corvallis 😱
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