Sitting alone in first place in the NFC North, the 4-1 Vikings look to notch their third-straight victory as they head south to face a Tua Tagovailoa- and Teddy Bridgewater-less Dolphins bunch on Sunday afternoon (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX). The Dolphins try to remain afloat in the AFC East and wild card standings as they aim to avoid their third-straight loss after starting the season 3-0.
It took a full 60-minute effort for the Vikings to defeat the Bears in Week 5. Minnesota jumped out to an early 21-3 first-half lead but then allowed the Bears to score 19 unanswered points, falling behind 22-21 in the fourth quarter. Minnesota would respond with a 17-play, 75-yard drive TD drive, capped off by a one-yard run by Kirk Cousins to regain the lead. Cornerback Cameron Dantzler later sealed the win for Minnesota, ripping the ball away from Bears’ WR Ihmir Smith-Marsette in the waning moments of the fourth quarter.
After losing Tagovailoa to a concussion in Week 4, the Dolphins would then lose backup Teddy Bridgewater to a head injury in the first quarter of their Week 5 matchup against the Jets, forcing seventh-round rookie Skylar Thompson into game action. It’s never easy to be thrust into game action as a backup QB, let alone for a rookie who’s never taken a regular-season snap. Thompson tried to keep the Dolphins within striking distance, but unfortunately, it was too much to ask for as the Jets took advantage of the inexperienced QB, leaving MetLife Stadium with a 40-17 victory.
WEEK 6 NFL PICKS: ATS | Straight up
Below, we’ll give you all the information you need before placing a wager on Vikings-Dolphins, including the updated odds from Caesars Sportsbook, tips, and our prediction for this Week 6 early-afternoon showdown.
Dolphins vs. Vikings odds for NFL Week 6
Betting odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
- Spread: Vikings -3 (-115)
- Over/Under: 45
- Moneyline: Vikings -180; Dolphins +152
Miami sat as a one-point home favorite on the look-ahead line, but with Bridgewater failing to return due to a concussion and the Dolphins losing by 20-plus points in Week 5, the Vikings have flipped to 3-point road favorites with Thompson likely to make his first career start. The total has seen a bit of movement after opening at 46.5 points, ticking down to 45 points, likely due to the Dolphins’ QB news.
MORE WEEK 6 NFL: Odds, spreads
Dolphins vs. Vikings all-time series
The Dolphins lead the all-time series over the Vikings with a 7-5 record, and they’ve won three of the past four meetings. The Vikings won the last meeting between these two teams in a 41-17 rout back in December 2018. Minnesota ran all over the Dolphins on that day, as RBs Dalvin Cook (19 carries, 136 yards) and Latavius Murray (15 carries, 68 yards) combined for over 200 yards on the ground.
Three trends to know
— Minnesota has underperformed relative to the betting markets, and despite a 4-1 overall record, the Vikings are 1-4 ATS. Most recently, they failed to cover as 7.5-point home favorites against the Bears last week.
— Conversely, the Dolphins have overperformed relative to the betting markets, sporting a 10-4 ATS mark dating back to last season.
— Per BetQL, “the Dolphins haven’t won a game in October since 2020. On the bright side, Miami is 8-3 SU at home over the past two years.”
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Three things to watch for
How does Thompson fare in his first career NFL start?
Now that Thompson has time to prepare and mentally process making his first career NFL start, we might see a better version of him this go-around. Thompson completed 19-of-33 passes (58 percent) for 166 yards and an interception this past week, but considering the circumstances, it wasn’t the worst performance. Of course, we’re taking his preseason stats with a grain of salt, but Thompson looked the part during the team’s exhibition games, completing 36-of-48 passes (75 percent) for 450 yards, five TDs, and zero INTs. He has elite weapons around him (Tyreek Hill, who’s dealing with a foot injury, and Jaylen Waddle) and plays in a QB-friendly scheme, so there’s a chance we see a decent performance out of the Kansas State product.
Dolphins’ offensive line in pass protection
It’s tough for any QB to have an effective game with subpar pass protection, and that’s exactly what Thompson got this past Sunday. Despite allowing just two sacks, the Dolphins’ offensive line surrendered 16 QB hits against the Jets. It makes sense why Miami owns the worst pass-blocking grade (45.5) per PFF entering Week 6. Minnesota does have a well-rounded pass rush, and if it’s able to consistently get in Miami’s backfield, it will spell trouble for the Dolphins’ chances of staying competitive.
Vikings rush defense
Minnesota’s rush defense was stout last week, limiting Bears RBs David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert to just 31 rushing yards on 16 total carries. It was actually QB Justin Fields (eight carries, 47 yards) who led the Bears in rushing, and while Thompson does pose a threat in the running game (1,087 rushing yards at Kansas State), he did not attempt a rush last week. Look for the Dolphins to try to establish the ground game on the early downs to make life easier for Thompson, as Raheem Mostert will look to replicate his 18-carry, 113-yard, one-TD performance this Sunday. Per PFF, Minnesota’s rush defense grades out as the second-best unit in the league (77.5) as we’ll see if Mostert can continue his effectiveness against a fundamentally sound rush defense.
Stat that matters
106.2. Miami’s pass defense has allowed opposing QBs to sport a 106.2 passer rating on 8.3 yards per attempt with an 8-1 TD-to-INT rate this season. Just like their pass protection, the Dolphins grade out as one of the weakest coverage units per PFF (44.1) as opposing offenses have had their way against them through the air. Miami’s rush defense is its clear strength (80.6 PFF grade), but keeping Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison in check for 60-minutes will be a tall task. We’ll see how the Dolphins’ defense fares against a well-rounded Vikings offense.
Dolphins vs. Vikings prediction
After a 3-0 start to the season, things are undoubtedly trending in the wrong direction for Miami. While they’re still going to have a shot to compete for an AFC wild card berth, being down to your third-string QB spells trouble, especially when a first-place team comes into your building. Kirk Cousins and the Vikings’ offense can beat you in a multitude of ways, and we simply don’t think the Dolphins’ offense will generate enough points to keep up with them. Miami’s likely going to need some turnover luck if they’re going to stay within the number.
PREDICTION: Vikings 27, Dolphins 17. Minnesota (-3) covers the spread with the game going UNDER the total (45).
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