It’s that time of year again — NFL football returns to our TV screens September 8! The countdown is on, which means DFS players will be cranking out lineups in frenzied fashions between now and opening weekend. As always, Sporting News is here to help you make the most of your DFS budgets, providing you with the best sleepers and value players on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Just like in seasonal redraft and auction fantasy leagues, DFS is all about gathering the most value. The more cheap production you assemble at one roster spot, the more elite studs you can afford at other positions. You probably can’t afford many shares of Jonathan Taylor (IND @ HOU) or Justin Jefferson (MIN vs. GB) unless you add players with lower costs like Rhamondre Stevenson (NE @ MIA) or Nico Collins (HOU vs. IND).
MORE FANTASY: Dominate your draft with Sporting News Fantasy’s cheat sheet
Every week, we scour the waiver wire and evaluate past and present stats to pinpoint the best under-the-radar plays at every position. We’ll highlight our absolute favorites, and provide two or three additional values we like for each position. We have plenty of time to prepare our Week 1 lineups, so we’re unveiling our list now (we’re too giddy — like kids on Christmas morning, really).
We will update if any major injuries occur, but for now, you can lock this lineup in. Every Tuesday starting on September 13, we will publish this column and include the good, the bad, and the ugly from our previous week’s value picks (not to toot our own horns, but it’s usually much more good than bad or ugly). We live for this!
Without further ado, let’s reveal our favorite DFS sleepers and value players for Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season. Let’s get that money!
All player values are from DraftKings and FanDuel. All stats are from NFL.com and Pro Football Reference.
NFL DFS Picks Week 1: QB sleepers, values for DraftKings, FanDuel
Matt Ryan, Colts at Texans (DK: $5,500 | FD: $6,900)
Some may say Matty Ice is over the hill — his 20 touchdown passes last season was his lowest mark since his rookie year in 2008 — but maybe he was just over the ATL. Stud wideout Calvin Ridley was suspended most of the season, tight end Kyle Pitts was good but not great (and awful in the red zone), and the surprise breakout of veteran RB/WR hybrid Cordarrelle Patterson was the Falcons’ only semblance of offensive hope all year. Well, now Ryan gets a fresh start in Indy at age 37. He will enjoy a loaded arsenal, including reigning rushing king Jonathan Taylor and 1,000-yard receiver Michael Pittman. Ryan could be one of the bigger comeback stories of the season, a tale that should very well begin in Week 1 against a Texans squad that surrendered the eighth-most fantasy points to QBs last season.
More great Week 1 QB values: Jameis Winston, NO @ ATL (DK: $5,300 | FD: $6,700), Daniel Jones, NYG @ TEN (DK: $5,000 | FD: $7,100)
NFL DFS Picks Week 1: RB sleepers, values for DraftKings, FanDuel
Chase Edmonds, Dolphins vs. Patriots (DK: $5,200 | FD: $5,800)
Starting a running back against the Patriots defense!? Who does this guy think he is, anyway!? Well, imaginary reader voice in my head, hear me out: the Pats may have been stingy with rushing TDs allowed last season, but they were brutal against RBs between the 20s. New England allowed 826 receiving yards to RBs in ‘21 (fourth-most in the NFL), good for a whopping 8.8 yards per catch. Bill Belichick’s squad also allowed 1,738 rushing yards, and over 4.5 yards per carry (seventh-worst). Edmonds finally gets a shot at a full season of RB1 usage, and gets former 49ers offensive coordinator and rushing guru Mike McDaniel as his new head coach. Edmonds probably won’t be this cheap again the rest of the season.
Dameon Pierce, Texans vs. Colts (DK: $4,800 | FD: $5,400)
Here’s another back who likely won’t be listed this low again after this week. Pierce has been one of Sporting News’ favorite breakout picks all preseason, and he might just mess around and win Offensive Rookie of the Year. At 5-10, 216 pounds, the U of Florida product has grown-man size and strength. He impressed mightily in the preseason, racking up 49 yards in Houston’s opener and then turning six carries into 37 yards and a TD in the Texans’ third game (he sat out the rest of the preseason, textbook starter treatment). Grab as many shares of Pierce as you can get, in DFS and season-long fantasy leagues. The Colts were pretty good against the run last season, but they won’t be fully prepared to contain this promising rookie.
Other great Week 1 RB values: AJ Dillon, GB @ MIN (DK: $5,300 | FD: $6,100), Mike Davis, BAL @ NYJ (DK: $4,400 | FD: $5,600)
NFL DFS Picks Week 1: WR sleepers, values for DraftKings, FanDuel
Michael Pittman Jr., Colts at Texans (DK: $5,500 | FD: $7,200)
With Matty Ice and Pittman, we have officially landed our first QB-WR stack of the season. This may not seem like a huge value, but considering the top-ranked wideouts are in the $7,000-$8,100 range, I’ll take a WR1 at the cost of a WR2/WR3. Pittman turned 93 touches into 1,126 scrimmage yards and six TDs last season, and he should be Ryan’s favorite target from day one of the regular season. The Texans ranked 22nd in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers last year. Fire up the Pitt-boss!
Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers at Bears (DK: $5,200 | FD: $5,600)
Aiyuk was on plenty of sleepers and breakouts lists last year, and he promptly fell on his face at the start of the ‘21 campaign. But he began to flash his brilliance toward the latter part of his sophomore season, and here we are again labeling him a sleeper after a strong training camp. Aiyuk and Niners starting QB Trey Lance have developed a rapport, which should produce strong numbers early and often. With an already-depleted Bears defense likely struggling to stop Deebo Samuel, Aiyuk should get open for plenty of free looks in Week 1.
More strong WR values: Elijah Moore, NYJ vs. BAL (DK: $5,100 | FD: $6,000), George Pickens, PIT @ CIN (DK: $4,100 | FD: $5,200), Romeo Doubs, GB at MIN (DK: $3,000 | FD: $5,000), Nico Collins (DK: $4,200 | FD: $5,200)
NFL DFS Picks Week 1: TE sleepers, values for DraftKings, FanDuel
Hunter Henry, Patriots at Dolphins (DK: $3,800 | FD: $5,400)
Henry served as one of my tight end sleepers this preseason, and he remains one of second-year QB Mac Jones’ favorite targets. At 6-5, 250 pounds, Henry has proven to be much more than just a security blanket during his six-year career. The 27-year-old caught nine TDs and netted 12.1 yards per catch last season, numbers that are basically identical to those of Travis Kelce. Across his 72 career NFL games and 246 lifetime touches, Henry has fumbled the ball just twice. Miami has a good D, but it did prove susceptible to tight ends at times in ‘21. The Dolphins surrendered 990 yards and 12.9 PPR points per game to the position. With respect to Derrick, all hail King Henry.
More great Week 1 TE values: Tyler Conklin, NYJ vs. Ravens (DK: $3,500 | FD: $5,000), Evan Engram, JAX @ WAS (DK: $3,500 | FD: $4,900)
NFL DFS Picks Week 17: D/ST sleepers, values for DraftKings, FanDuel
Tennessee Titans vs. New York Giants (DK: $3,500 | FD: $4,600)
Why spend $4,100 on the 49ers (@ CHI) when you can get the Titans D at home against Daniel Jones and the Giants for $600 less? Sure, the G-men should improve under head coach and former Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, but they’ll still make plenty of mistakes in Week 1 on the road. Picking a value D/ST is all about targeting big-play upside. New York tied for the most interceptions thrown per game in ‘21 (1.2), and trailed only Houston with INTs per away game (1.3). The Titans ranked top 10 in interceptions last season (16), and ranked third in sacks per home game (3.3). Tennessee also allowed just 20.7 points per game (sixth-lowest), and surrendered 17.0 points per home game (third).
Other solid Week 1 D/ST values: Panthers vs. Browns (DK: $3,400 | FD: $4,700), Browns at Panthers (DK: $3,800 | FD: $4,300)
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