Soccer fans are spoiled. Nearly every day of the calendar year there is a match happening somewhere in the world. That makes soccer betting a 365-day-a-year pastime for those who have learned it and enjoy it responsibly.
This year that group is likely to be joined by countless others with the 2022 World Cup in November only ramping up mainstream wagering interest.
Whether you’re looking for an excuse to watch a particular match or you just want some skin in the game, betting on soccer can be an entertaining and exciting way to take in the Beautiful Game.
If you’re new to the sport, or you’re new to sports betting, this post is a handy guide to walk you through some of the basics and the different ways of navigating the soccer betting markets.
Of course, no single bet or betting strategy is guaranteed to win. But the information below should at a bare minimum help provide you a solid foundation to know what you’re doing when it comes to identifying the bets or strategies that suit your style.
MORE: Best bets and expert predictions for 2022/23 Premier League season
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The world of soccer betting can be split into two key categories: (1) futures and (2) individual match betting. Here’s a breakdown of what each involves.
1. Futures
“Futures” are self-explanatory: predicting what will happen in the future. Specifically, the distant future. For example, who will win the league title? Who will be top goalscorer in the competition? Or who will win the award for best player of the tournament?
When betting on futures, the best odds are usually available before a competition begins. The closer you get to an event, the odds will begin to shift. Once a tournament is underway, the futures odds will adjust based on the ongoing results.
For example, waiting until a tournament is down to the semifinals (final four teams) to pick a tournament winner will return much lower odds than a pre-tournament bet on the same team when the entire field is still in play.
2. Matches
For the person who doesn’t enjoy waiting on a futures bet and seeing their money tied up, then match betting might be for you.
Betting on individual matches, or even specific aspects of a match can be especially enjoyable, because it gives fans a reason to watch, engage with, and take on a rooting interest for an outcome in a game that might not otherwise be very compelling.
Fans can bet on just about anything within a particular match — everything from the final score, to how many goals will be scored, to who scores the goals, to how many cards each team will get.
Individual match betting can be difficult, because while the cream usually rises to the top over a larger sample size (like a full season in the case of a futures bet), any standalone game can see a random set of chaotic outcomes. That’s sports.
Before you get started placing bets, you need to understand how to read the odds for each wager. The odds will determine whether the risk of placing a bet is worth the reward. Predicting an outcome is only half the battle. Spotting value in the odds is just as important.
Odds are an indication of how likely an outcome is to occur. For very likely outcomes, the odds are lower, meaning the bookmaker is expecting this outcome, and as such, a lower payout is attached to a winning bet.
For outcomes that are not so likely, the odds are higher, and as such, a higher payout is awarded in case of a winning bet.
Odds are presented in three different varieties, often depending on which region you’re located. They all mean the same thing, but they are presented in a different format. Pick the odds format you’re most likely to use and ignore the others.
1. American odds (Plus/Minus)
In the United States, odds are presented in plus/minus format, often referred to as “American odds.”
Plus odds
If a plus sign comes in front of the number, it means that for every $100 bet, you will win the number that comes after the “+” sign in case of a successful bet (on top of getting your original stake back).
For example, if the odds are listed at +120, it means that if you bet $100 on that outcome, and it was successful, you would win $120 plus your original $100 stake ($220 total). You don’t have to bet $100, of course: a $10 bet at +120 odds would win $12, a $1 bet at +120 odds would win $1.20, and so on.
Minus odds
If you see a minus sign in front of the number, think the reverse of the plus odds: in order to win $100, you must bet the number shown after the minus “–” sign.
For example, if the odds are -120, you would need to bet $120 to win $100 on a successful outcome (on top of getting your original stake back). Again, the odds are scalable from there, meaning a $12 bet at -120 odds would earn you $10 (in addition to your original stake), a $1.20 bet at -120 odds would win $1, and so on.
2. Slash odds
In many territories outside the United States, such as the UK, slash odds are used. This is a fractional display that uses a similar concept as American odds.
With the slash method, the odds are displayed as a fraction. In the numerator, the winning amount is listed, while in the denominator, the corresponding bet is listed. For example, if the odds are 9/2, a $2 bet would garner a $9 win. If the odds are 8/11, an $11 bet would result in an $8 win (on top of the original stake).
3. Decimal odds
In other places, odds are listed in decimal format up to two decimal places.
In short, with decimal odds, the number shown is the total amount gained on a $1 bet, with one twist: Unlike the other formats, this number includes the return of the original stake. Therefore, a successful $1 bet at 2.00 odds returns $2: winnings of $1 to go with the original $1 stake (total of $2).
Another example: A successful bet at odds of 2.50 would mean that a $1 wager would earn $2.50 ($1.50 in winnings plus the $1 original stake). A successful $1 bet at 1.75 odds would see earnings of $1.75 ($0.75 in winnings along with the $1 original stake).
Converting between odds
Move on to the next section if you don’t plan on converting from one odds format to another. If you do need to switch between them for some reason, always remember that all odds — no matter which of the three formats used — are actually just fractions.
If you are looking at plus American odds, just put the number shown over 100, and go from there. For example, odds of +120 really just means 120/100. Then you just simplify the fraction to get slash odds of 6/5, and then convert that fraction to a decimal (1.20) and add “1” for decimal odds of 2.20.
- American odds: +120
- Slash odds: 120/100 (6/5 simplified)
- Decimal odds: The 6/5 is really “6” divided by “5” which equals 1.20. Add a “1” for final odds of 2.20.
You can do the same with minus American odds, but flip the fraction: -120 would simply mean 100/120, and then again simplify the fraction to get slash odds of 5/6. Then convert the fraction to a decimal (0.83) and add “1” to get decimal odds of 1.83.
- American odds: -120
- Slash odds: 100/120 (5/6 simplified)
- Decimal odds: The 5/6 is really “5” divided by “6” which equals 0.83. Add a “1” for final odds of 1.83.
If you’re going the other way and starting your conversion from decimal odds to another format, don’t forget to subtract “1” from the decimal odds before converting. (Remember that the decimal odds contain the original stake, while the others don’t. Thus, it needs to be removed.)
Once you understand what the odds mean, you can begin diving into the options available to you.
When it comes to futures, the bets are usually self-explanatory (team to win the title, team to top a group, etc.). However, when it comes to individual match betting, there are a wide variety of options to choose from.
Below are the different types of wagers that are most popular in the soccer betting community when it comes to individual matches.
Moneyline
The simplest — and therefore most popular — way to bet a match is to pick who will win, known as the “moneyline.” In soccer, there are always three moneyline options:
- Team A to win;
- Team B to win;
- Draw.
The draw option is always available, even in a knockout tournament setting where a winner is required on the day. That’s because the moneyline is always restricted to the result in the 90 minutes of regulation.
For example, if a Champions League final is level after 90 minutes of regulation, and the game goes to extra time, the result after extra time or penalties is irrelevant for purposes of the moneyline bet. The “draw” bet would be the winner in that case.
There are two slightly more conservative variations on the moneyline bet known as “double chance” and “draw no bet” which feature odds that are inferior to the straight moneyline bets because the risk is reduced. Here’s how:
Double Chance: A bet which allows for two outcomes instead of the one outcome available in the straight moneyline bet. For example, a “Team A double chance” bet is a winner if Team A wins or Team A draws. (Bettors win on two of three results.)
Draw No Bet: This is a type of bet that allows a user to pick a side (Team A or Team B) and get their stake returned to them in case of a draw. Thus, the bet is off in case of a draw after 90 minutes. (Thus the “draw no bet” moniker.)
Spread / (Asian) Handicap
Sometimes moneyline bets are just not worth looking at if the odds are lopsided (Ex. In the case of Premier League champion Manchester City facing a fourth-division team in a cup game). That’s when you might turn your attention to the spread bet, or handicap, as it’s known in some parts.
Instead of picking the winner or loser (the moneyline option), a bettor can pick how many goals will separate the two sides. Will Man City win by two, three or four goals against that lower division team? Can the fourth division team keep it to a one-goal or two-goal game? Odds are attached to each of those scenarios.
For example, if Team A is favored to win a match against Team B, you could bet on the “Team A -1.5” spread (or handicap) which would only win if Team A wins by two or more goals. That’s called “covering the spread.” Team A winning by three or four goals would also be a winner. However, if you bet “Team A -1.5,” and they win by only one goal, your bet would lose.
Conversely, a bet on “Team B +1.5” would be successful as long as Team B does not lose by more than 1.5 goals (in other words, by two goals or more). That’s the difference between the + and – in front of the spread. If you bet “Team B +1.5,” and the two sides draw, your bet would be a winner. But if Team B lost by three goals, your bet would lose.
Why the half-goal lines you ask? That’s to give bettors the option of avoiding a “push” scenario (when your bet is refunded). But you can still bet whole number spreads if that’s your preference. Here’s how they work: If you bet Team A at -1 on the spread and Team A wins by exactly one goal, then the bet is a push and you will get your money refunded with no winnings, as if your bet never happened.
The above spread/handicap bets should not be confused with bets on the exact margin of victory. Those are also available as a betting option. So if you’re absolutely convinced that Man City will win by a single goal (no more and no less), you can bet that as an “exact margin.” But in that case, any result that is not a one-goal win in favor of Man City (1-0, 2-1, 3-2, etc.) will be a losing bet.
Quarter-goal handicaps/spreads: Some sportsbooks offer what are called “Asian handicap” lines popularized in Asia. These can be more attractive than the half-goal or whole-number spreads because they offer a bettor a bit of insurance.
It’s not as complicated as it looks. All you need to remember is that when you bet a -0.25 or a +0.75, for example, all you’re doing is splitting your stake on two separate spread bets on either side of that quarter figure (see this table for visual reference).
So for -0.25, half of your bet goes on the “0” spread (i.e. pick’em) and the other half is on the -0.5 spread. In the case of +0.75, half your bet goes on the +0.5 spread, and the other half on the +1. You need the final match result to cover both spreads in order to win the full bet. But depending on the final result, there’s a scenario where you can win half the bet and push on the other half. Or you can lose half your bet, and push on the other half (i.e. stake refunded).
Example: Taking the -1.25 Asian handicap spread bet as an example: a $100 bet on the -1.25 spread is split evenly between the -1 spread ($50) and -1.5 spread ($50). If the team in question wins by two goals, then the entire bet is a winner because both spreads were covered. However, if the team wins by just one goal, then the 50 percent of the bet on the -1.5 spread is a loser, but the other half of the bet on the -1 spread is a push (stake refunded) since the team won by exactly a one-goal difference. The bettor gets half their stake back.
Goals
There are a multitude of ways to bet on how many goals will be scored in a match. Here are a few of the most popular.
Reminder: As with the moneyline and spreads above, all goal bets are only calculated through 90 minutes of regulation. If a Champions League match finishes 1-1 and goes to extra time, the total goals scored would be two, no matter how many goals are scored in extra-time.
Total Goals (Over/Under)
Bettors have the option of multiple over/under goal totals to choose from. The total is the number of goals scored by both teams in the game, regardless of which team scores them. You can bet the game will go over or under a specific goal total.
Usually, the common over/under reference point is 2.5 total goals, although when a higher-scoring match is expected, the odds on a 2.5 goals total are often not worth looking at. The 3 or 3.5 goal totals would have the more attractive odds in those cases.
A quick example on how the total goals bet works: if a bettor took the “over 2.5 total goals” bet for the match between Team A vs. Team B, and Team A wins 3-1, then that bet would be a winner since four total goals were scored. If it ends in a 1-1 draw or a 2-0 win for either team (i.e. two total goals), then the “over 2.5 total goals” bet would be a loser.
Similarly, if a bettor took the “under 3.5 total goals” on Team A vs. Team B, and the match ends in a 1-1 draw (two total goals), then that would also be a winner since it finished under 3.5. A 2-2 draw or 3-1 win (four total goals) would make the “under 3.5 total goals” a losing bet.
Exact scoreline
Yes, it’s possible to try and predict the final scoreline of a match though in many cases it’s ill-advised since it’s pure guesswork. The odds might seem enticing, but accurately predicting the exact score is a fool’s errand. Don’t get suckered in here unless you’re extremely confident or you are wagering trivial sums of money.
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
This one, often shortened to “BTTS,” is self-explanatory, and bets are placed on either “BTTS Yes” or “BTTS No.” Will both teams score?
If the match finishes 4-0, then a bet of “BTTS No” would be the winner, whereas if the match finishes in a 1-1 draw, a bet of “BTTS Yes” would be successful.
Keeping a Clean Sheet
A “clean sheet” in soccer refers to a shutout. If Team A “kept a clean sheet” it means they did not concede a single goal through the 90 minutes of regulation.
Therefore, a bet of “Team A to keep a clean sheet” would require Team B to register zero goals in order to be a winner (a 0-0 draw would also be a winner). If Team B scores a single goal, it would be a losing bet.
Halves
You can bet not just on the full-time score, but also on the score for the first 45 minutes (first half) or even the final 45 minutes (second half).
All the above betting options — moneyline, over/under goals, spread, both teams to score, and clean sheet — are also available to bet for a specific half.
Additionally, you can bet on the exact goals scored in a half, a team to win both halves, which half will see more scoring, and total goals scored by one team in a particular half.
Intervals
Another way sportsbooks allow you to parse out a game is to bet on various minute intervals in which goals will be scored.
The match is usually broken up into minute intervals of 10 minutes or 15 minutes, and bets can be placed on whether a goal will be scored in a specific interval, or which interval will see the first goal of the match or the game-winner. For example, a bet may be placed on the first goal of the match being scored in the 11th-20th minutes interval. Similar to the exact score bets, this is often guesswork.
Note: In soccer the “game-winning goal” is considered the goal that puts the eventual winning team up in excess of the opponent’s final tally. For example, if Team A goes on to win 3-1, Team A’s second goal will always be considered the “game-winning goal” regardless of the order in which the goals were scored.
Goalscorers
Wagers can also be placed on individual goalscorers.
A fan can place a bet on a player to be the first goalscorer, last goalscorer, or anytime goalscorer. Obviously, odds on anytime goalscorer will be a lot lower than picking the first and last goalscorer of a match, which is extremely difficult.
Corners
Wagers can be placed on the total number of corner kicks in a match, usually presented in over/under format. Bets can also be placed on an individual team’s total corners, or the spread between each team’s corner kick totals.
Cards
Additionally, wagers can be placed on yellow cards and red cards. Bets can be placed on a particular player to get a card, or a team’s total cards (in over/under format), or a game’s total cards (in over/under format).
Factors to look for here include a player’s propensity to foul, a referee’s tendency to hand out cards, and the stakes of a match (Ex. rivalry games or single-elimination matches which could be testy affairs).
Parlays
Finally, you can take several of the items from the list above and combine them in a “parlay,” which is the combination of two or more bets in which all bets must hit for the parlay to be successful. If one component of a parlay fails, the entire parlay fails and the bettor loses their stake.
There are restrictions regarding which bets can be parlayed together — parlays of correlated bets will not be accepted for obvious reasons. The “same game parlay” or “SGP” setting with some sportsbooks clearly highlights the bets that are allowed to be parlayed.
Sportsbooks will also offer preset parlays and present them as single wagers. For example, “Liverpool to win to zero” is often presented by a bookmaker as a single bet, but in actuality it is a parlay of a Liverpool moneyline bet plus Liverpool to keep a clean sheet. If Liverpool win but do not keep a clean sheet, or Liverpool keeps a clean sheet but does not win (i.e. 0-0 draw), the bet fails.
Other popular parlays include:
- Moneyline + over/under: This is a parlay involving a moneyline bet on a particular team and the game’s total goals scored.
- Moneyline + BTTS
- Player to score & Team to win
- Player to score a goal & assist a goal
Below is a list of 10 tips that can come in handy when betting on soccer.
As with other sports, the variables in soccer are many, and despite best efforts, chaos can often unfold in a match that features 22 players on the field and hundreds of actions taking place over the course of 90 minutes. One red card, one injury, or one goal is enough to change the course of a match.
With that said, preparation and information can only help:
1. ALWAYS check lineups and injury news
The assumption is that any bettor is monitoring injury news. But the injury monitoring isn’t always enough. DO NOT lock in bets, especially wagers on individual players, until you see the official starting lineup for that particular match.
For example, if you want to bet on Erling Haaland to score a goal in a match, make sure he is both healthy and in the starting lineup! You might lose a good price on the bet by not betting in advance, but that’s preferable over losing the entire bet before the the match has even kicked off.
Even if a player is healthy and playing consistently, coaches and managers often rotate players based on pre-determined workload schedules which are not made public. In other cases, certain players are preferred against particular opponents based on specific skill sets that line up with the tactical approach to the match. Therefore, it’s hard to predict who will play from game to game — so don’t bother! Just wait until the lineups are announced.
2. Check a team’s schedule & travel load
While there are additional substitutions allowed in the Premier League this season which affords teams more player rotation, travel and fixture congestion can still present a significant drain on a squad, especially one with little depth.
Always give a glance at a team’s recent and upcoming schedule: How far has the team had to travel recently and in what timeframe? Have any players been overused lately? Has there been a regular rotation? Is the team trending up or down? Are recent results indicators of fatigue?
One other schedule consideration: Players and coaches will never admit it, but trap games are real. A “trap game” is considered a game against a side deemed to be an inferior opponent. If that happens to come directly before a bigger match against a more important club, players and their coach might find themselves looking ahead despite their best judgement.
3. Historical trends matter, but recent trends matter more
As with other sports, trends are an important part of research into soccer betting.
Historical trends between two teams, including at the specific stadium a match will be played, are a popular part of soccer match previews. However, recent trends matter more, especially with clubs changing players and coaches from season to season.
How a team has played against the opponent recently (or against an opponent with a similar style and comparable quality) is more relevant to a bet than a head-to-head matchup from 10 years prior.
4. Road and home form can be important
Road and home form can come into play when handicapping a match. Teams often play quite differently at home versus on the road.
For example, in the 2021/22 Premier League season, Leicester City were excellent within the friendly confines of their King Power Stadium, with 10 wins, four draws, and five losses (a combined +11 goal differential at home). Four of their five home losses came against Top 5 teams. Meanwhile, on the road, they won just four games, drawing six and losing nine, with a -8 goal differential (i.e. they allowed eight more goals than they scored on the road).
That poor road form translated to other competitions. Leicester City crashed out of the FA Cup on the road at Championship side Nottingham Forest, they lost twice on the road in the Europa League group stage leading to elimination, and they were dumped from the Europa Conference League semifinals with a 1-0 loss on the road at AS Roma.
It’s just as important to know when there is no meaningful disparity in the home/road splits. Not every team is impacted by it, and the stats will bear this out in those cases.
5. Dive into the advanced statistics
There is plenty of data available nowadays that can shine a light as to how teams and players might perform against certain opponents or certain playing styles.
Statistics like expected goals (for and against), individual duels won or lost, pressure rates, and many others can help inform a bettor. Identifying individual player matchups within a game can also be a good way to find an edge in the betting market.
For example, Tottenham striker Harry Kane turned on the jets in the second half of the 2021/22 season. After he scored just five goals through the first 22 games, who saw the late season revival coming? Well, plenty of those who did their research.
Through his first 22 matches of the campaign, Kane amassed 9.38 expected goals (xG — more on expected goals below), but he only found the back of the net five times, a differential of -4.38. But Kane has been an xG overperformer his entire career, and this suggested a correction to the mean.
Sure enough, through the final 16 matches of the season, Kane scored 12 goals on an xG of 9.38 (an overperformance of +2.62), helping his team secure a Champions League place on the final week of the season. Those who took the time to find these numbers likely had the jump on this late-season burst.
6. Watch a team before betting on or against them
As you can imagine, going solely off numbers on a computer screen will only get you so far — you need to watch the teams play. The eye test is just as important as the readout on paper.
Watching games will tell you things that statistical measurements can’t, such as a team’s tactical balance, whether the manager makes adjustments and impacts matches with substitutions, how a team responds when faced with adversity, and how certain players perform in various different environments.
Consuming the game is the only way to truly get a feel for a team’s or player’s on-field personality, which in turn should translate into an ability to identify value picks in the betting market.
7. Look at the pressing stats
Nowadays, pressing and counter-pressing have become such an important part of the style and identity of numerous clubs at the highest levels. It’s so prevalent, that it’s important to understand how effective clubs are both when applying the press against other teams and when playing through an opponent’s press. Do they press from the opening minute? Do they not even bother pressing because they’re comfortable sitting back and absorbing pressure?
Basic data that can help understand the effectivity of a team’s press has become available to the general public in recent years, though more revealing granular data is still kept under wraps for clubs to pay top dollar for it. Here are some common stats that can help paint a picture when taken together:
- Total pressures, and successful pressures (also, by a team’s opponents)
- Pressure success rates in specific zones (also, for a team’s opponents)
- Possessions lost (also, an opponent’s possessions lost)
- Duels won and lost
- Total defensive actions (and an opponent’s defensive actions)
- Passes per defensive action (PPDA): How many passes the team in question allows an opponent to string together on average
- Offensive passes per defensive action (OPPDA): How many passes the team in question strings together on average against opponents
Teams that press well can be dangerous in transition. Conversely, those teams that are mistake-prone can end up getting skewered by pressing opponents.
Take Leeds United in 2021/22: They were a team that took extreme risks under ex-manager Marcelo Bielsa, playing a high line and attempting to overwhelm an opponent before that opponent had a chance to do the same thing to Leeds. With the right players, it’s a strategy that can be effective. But at Leeds, it began to backfire. The second goal in this 4-1 loss to Arsenal is an example of Leeds getting exposed and carved up.
8. How does a team create its goals?
There are plenty of stats that shine a light on a team’s primary methods of creating goalscoring opportunities.
- Do they possess the ball heavily and look to break down the opponent in the final third? (Ex. high number of touches or passes in final third)
- Do they sit back and absorb pressure hoping to find moments to counter-attack? (Ex. low possession percentage, but comparable shots on goal)
- Do they go “Route 1” hoofing long balls over the midfield and behind the opposing back line? (Long-distance passes are tracked)
- Do they have a key playmaker who’s the source of their big chances? (Big chances per player are tracked)
- What do their crossing stats look like?
- What facet of the attack is the weakest?
Understanding these strengths and weaknesses helps in handicapping a match.
For example, Liverpool winger Luis Diaz is an on-the-ball dribbling whiz, so if he’s going up against a right-back who struggles in one-on-one defensive situations, it might suggest an advantage for Liverpool. But if the opposing defender is a quality tackler, there’s a chance that Luis Diaz could be kept in check, and the Reds may have to find other ways of creating chances.
9. Don’t buy into storylines
While it’s part of being a fan to stay up on the storylines, transfer buzz, the general chatter, and the pregame and postgame comments by managers and club executives trying to shape the narrative, those media-hyped storylines often have little actual bearing on how a team plays on the field.
The team’s recent trends, recent matchups against an opponent (or similar opponent), and player form all weigh more heavily when it comes to determining a team’s success or failure in a match. Sure, major headlines and storylines still have the potential of upsetting the preparations or the psychological makeup of a team, and they’re important to monitor nonetheless.
Here’s something else to consider: If a story gets significant media traction, it could actually skew the odds by steering the majority of bettors to a particular side. This and other fluctuations in the betting market in reaction to news stories could present some opportunities for those who can sift through or block out the noise.
10. Anticipate the crazy!
Soccer is a game of skill, speed, anticipation, technical ability, and teamwork, but it can also sometimes feel like a crazy game of chance with a single deflection enough to wreak havoc on the final result!
So factoring a little of the unexpected in your betting is not a terrible strategy.
While attempting to predict how a match will play out before kickoff is probably the most popular type of soccer bet, in-game live betting also presents another opportunity to get some skin in the game, or to hedge against a pre-game bet. Live betting is placing a bet on a match while it is currently in play.
During a match, the odds will shift as the game progresses and as outcomes become more likely or less likely. Fans can also make in-game bets hoping to capitalize on momentum shifts.
Many pre-game bets are no longer available in-game. But there are a few that are exclusive to live betting periods such as Next Team to Score, Next Player to Score, Next Player to be Booked, Next Corner, and What Team Wins the Rest of the Match.
Here are a few tips on how to live bet matches.
1. Follow momentum changes, but don’t overreact
Momentum can swing several times between teams during the course of a soccer match. So you shouldn’t get caught up in any single shift in play.
Instead, always take a big picture look at the game. Has a team spent 20 minutes with the upper hand and failed to score? That can indicate a rough day in front of net, and the opponent may be lurking. Has a midfield or attacking player been significantly influential through a certain passage of play? Look for the other team to make tactical tweaks to correct for this, which could either negate the advantage or open up space for a teammate.
Also, halftime can be a momentum killer. Just because a team was better in the first half doesn’t mean they’ll come out of halftime with the same vigor, especially as the other team now has an opportunity to make significant changes. Conversely, a team second-best for the first 45 minutes can utilize halftime as a fresh start.
Pay attention to how halftime affects various teams and players, and how certain managers handle halftime. Some managers have a reputation of being either brilliant or underwhelming with their halftime adjustments.
2. Get a feel for what a manager is trying to accomplish
A manager’s tactical plan will adjust during the course of a match. Changes in game flow will affect how a manager approaches different phases of the 90 minutes.
Here are some key moments to watch out for:
- Is the coach of an underdog hoping to play defensively and hit on the counter?
- How motivated is each side to venture forward and take risks to score a goal?
- If a team is up big, will their manager continue to attack and look for more or decide to shut it down and defend the lead?
- How desperate is the team to score more goals? Or are they more focused on not conceding?
All these factors can decide how risk-on or risk-off a team will play, and the answers can change over the course of a match. While none of us are in the coach’s head, we can watch for clues on the field, such as substitutions made, formation tweaks, passing trends (are they resorting to the long ball?), pressing (where are they applying the press?), and more.
3. Keep an eye on individual players
Keep mental notes on individual players and how they are faring during the course of a match, especially early on. Their execution, energy levels and desire — or lack thereof -— may provide an indication that they could be set for a great game, or conversely, that they might be in for an off-game. The opposing player they’re matching up against could be playing a factor (positively or negatively).
For example, has a goalkeeper made a few crazy saves in the opening stages? That could be an early sign that the ‘keeper is about to stand on his head for the 90 minutes. Has a striker missed a few open chances? It might not be their day. Is a midfielder fouling consistently? They might be on the verge of a card.
While the early stages of play aren’t always a guarantee of how the game will unfold, it can often provide clues as to how it will progress, especially in the case of a player or two who could have an outsize impact on the match.
To get started betting on soccer, here’s a quick list of handy resources that should help you along the way.
Popular sportsbooks
Practically all sportsbooks feature soccer betting, with some regions offering a greater selection of leagues than others. Below is a list of some of the most popular betting houses in the United States and Canada. (And be sure to check to see which sportsbook operates in your area.)
Not all betting sites and apps are made equal, but the best ones for soccer will have a multitude of props and parlay options when it comes to futures, individual match betting, or live in-game betting.
And the universal axiom applies to soccer as it does for other sports: Shop around for the best odds. There are some sites out there that will do the work for you and populate the odds from each sportsbook for individual matches.
Where can I bet legally on soccer?
The following states have legalized some form of sports betting in the United States. Full legality indicates that mobile betting and in-person wagering are both legal. Some states have legalized in-person sports betting but have yet to extend that to mobile betting.
| U.S. State | Legal Betting |
|---|---|
| Arizona | Full |
| Arkansas | Full |
| Colorado | Full |
| Connecticut | Full |
| Delaware | In-person only |
| Illinois | Full |
| Indiana | Full |
| Iowa | Full |
| Louisiana | Full |
| Maryland | In-person only |
| Michigan | Full |
| Mississippi | In-person only |
| Nevada | Full* |
| New Hampshire | Full |
| New Jersey | Full |
| New York | Full |
| North Carolina | In-person only |
| Ohio | Full |
| Oregon | Full |
| Pennsylvania | Full |
| Rhode Island | Full |
| South Dakota | In-person only |
| Tennessee | Full |
| Virginia | Full |
| West Virginia | Full |
| Wyoming | Full |
*In Nevada, mobile sports betting requires first obtaining in-person registration at a casino
Advanced statistics and metrics
Further below is a list of soccer stat sites and analytics sources that are rich in information.
Here’s a glossary of some of the most useful advanced metrics you’ll find on those sites which have been growing in popularity.
- Expected goals (xG): Measures the quality of a team’s or player’s goal-scoring chances and the likelihood they can be turned into a goal. You’ll want to pay attention to how a team’s or player’s actual goal total measures up against their expected goals. (Are they poor or above average finishers?). “Expected goals allowed” are the other side of the coin and provide a picture of a team’s defensive health.
- Expected assists (xA): Similar to xG, except this measures the likelihood that a pass could lead to a goal.
- Key Passes: A pass that leads to a shot on goal, but which doesn’t result in a goal. Along with xG and xA above, key passes can help give you a sense of a team’s or player’s ability to create chances (or a team’s defensive frailties if it concedes too many of them).
- Successful duels: Success (or lack thereof) of a player or team in aerial duels (for headers in the air), or ground duels.
- Average positions & heat maps: Passing charts and heat maps can show a player’s or team’s general shape (are they compact or disconnected?) and passing tendencies during the course of a match or against a particular type of opponent.
- Defensive actions: A defensive action is any defensive contribution, such as a pressure, interception, tackle, or ball recovery. The volume of defensive actions can help show a team’s or player’s inclination and ability to defend.
Statistical resources
Statistical experts
- StatsPerform / Opta: Data you see on other sites often originates from StatsPerform/Opta.
- StatsBomb: One of the game’s top innovators in cutting edge advanced analytics.
- ProFootballFocus: The NFL and college football analytics experts have ventured into soccer.
Soccer betting podcasts & shows
Consulting expert opinions and then doing your own homework can only help to hone your betting instincts. And you don’t always have to tail an expert’s picks: Simply listening to their thinking behind a selection could help inform how you go about your own bets.
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