In late 2022, ChatGPT was the topic du jour. There was a sense of something revolutionary and that entire industries would be upended.
Fast-forward two years, and the term “AI” elicits a more mixed reaction. The novelty of asking ChatGPT a question or generating a wacky AI image is gone, replaced by a sense of exhaustion around the buzzword of all buzzwords. Last month, a study from Slack found that the percentage of American workers who are excited about AI helping them complete their tasks dropped from 45% to 36% over the previous three months.
This comes as companies like OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic see slower gains in technical progress. OpenAI co-founder and former Chief Scientist Ilya Sutskever tells Reuters we’re in an “age of wonder and discovery once again.” In other words, back to the drawing board.
No More Half-Baked Tech
Personally, I’ll believe the 2022-era hype when I come across a generative AI tool that redefines how I use my computer, phone, or other devices. PCMag has published 725 articles on AI this year, many of which I’ve written, and tested the splashiest releases (Google NotebookLM was a highlight). Most, if not all, feel half-baked.
While I use ChatGPT, it doesn’t meet all my needs. The risk of hallucinations, plus a desire to sift through information myself rather than read a computerized summary, keeps me coming back to Google. But when I go to Google, its AI Overviews often serve up inaccurate or not-quite-there information. (Google Gemini recently told a user to “please die.”)
Apple Intelligence has also been a let-down. After using it for a month, I want to turn off the sometimes confusing notification summaries. The first Apple Intelligence update for Siri was underwhelming, and the fully revamped version is now reportedly delayed until 2026.
Siri’s new ‘glowing’ design (Credit: Angela Moscaritolo)
It’s getting harder to see AI overhauling modern life, at least in the short term. Even OpenAI has stopped promising to release GPT-5, a supposedly breakthrough model that will bring it closer to achieving the artificial general intelligence, or AGI, we see in sci-fi movies.
“We have some very good releases coming later this year! Nothing that we are going to call gpt-5, though,” OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said during an October Reddit AMA. Instead, 2024 saw the launch of smaller, yet still significant, model releases like GPT-4o and o1.
For now, we’re stuck with Altman’s grandiose blog posts about “The Intelligence Age.”
The AI Slump of 2025?
It feels like generative AI is entering the “trough of dissillusionment,” per the Gartner hype cycle. If tech companies cannot deliver more meaningful tech in 2025, it could get stuck there.
This analyst firm’s theory says emerging technologies follow a predictable pattern. They burst on the scene with a surge of excitement, and then interest declines when unreasonable promises fail to materialize quickly. The tech must then prove itself before adoption rises again, ultimately plateauing at a more stable level.
A back-of-the-napkin prediction of where AI falls on the Gartner hype cycle. (Credit: Gartner/Emily Forlini)
Mapping this to generative AI, you could argue interest peaked in the months following ChatGPT’s Nov. 30, 2022 release. In 2024, we’ve seen some cracks in the foundation; hallucinations continue, harmful and bizarre deepfakes are everywhere, and AI-based consumer hardware has struggled to get off the ground.
Hallucinations are particularly challenging since they’re hard to avoid in even the most advanced AI systems. Even execs like Google CEO Sundar Pichai struggle to explain it; he says large language models just aren’t that great at “factuality.”
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In 2025, generative AI will either start digging itself out of the trough of disillusionment or fall deeper into it alongside other over-hyped tech like cryptocurrency and the metaverse.
Gut Check: Do We Like Where This is Going?
AI’s path to reaching the more stable “plateau of productivity” is checkered with lawsuits, which could be settled in 2025.
A mother suing Character.AI for encouraging her son to take his own life could influence the rules around personality-based chatbots. The New York Times is also suing OpenAI and Microsoft for copyright infringement, the result of which could have big implications for the future of media. Social media platform X is also suing the state of California over a law preventing deepfakes around election time, arguing it will make “parody illegal” on social media.Â
It’s unclear how President-elect Donald Trump will shape the future of AI. Trump plans to nominate a so-called “AI czar” to work with Elon Musk on government efficiency, among other tasks. Trump’s team reportedly wants to revise federal regulations to get more self-driving cars on the road, potentially benefitting Musk’s robotaxi plans. The federal AI working groups that emerged from President Biden’s 2023 Executive Order may not continue under Trump.
If the Gartner hype cycle holds any weight, buckle up for a rough year that could shake up the so-called generative AI revolution. Wealthy AI execs may not like it, but it could be welcome news for skeptics who are ringing the alarm on the dangers and limitations of AI.
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About Emily Dreibelbis Forlini
Senior Reporter
