Move over, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson are the new best bets for 2022 NFL MVP, because both players have more appealing value based on the odds.
Going into Week 3’s Sunday action, Allen (+300 on DraftKings, +270 on FanDuel) and Mahomes (+450 on DraftKings, +500 on FanDuel) were the front-runners according to the sportsbooks. Hurts (+850 on DraftKings, +1000 on FanDuel) and Jackson (+1000 on DraftKings, +1300 on FanDuel) were third and fifth on the list, respectively, sandwiching another quarterback, Justin Herbert.
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Allen and Mahomes, with the Bills and Chiefs both failing to finish road comebacks in Week 3, left the door wide open for a big change. Hurts’ Eagles are 3-0 and Jackson’s Ravens are 2-1 after the QBs turned in more dazzling statistical performances in big road victories.
Hurts (22-of-35 passing, 340 yards, three TDs, 8.9 YPA, 123.5 rating) lit up the Commanders’ pass defense while needing little from his legs (nine rushes, 20 yards) in a dominating 24-8 win.
Jackson, just as he did in a loss to the Dolphins in Week 2, smashed the Patriots as a passer (18 for 29, 218 yards, four TDs, one INT, 6.6 YPA, 124.7 rating) and runner (11 rushes, 107 yards, TD) in a runaway 37-26 victory.
Hurts did cool off on the ground after posting 147 yards rushing and three TDs in the first two weeks. Jackson, after not running much vs. the Jets in Week 1, has racked up 226 yards rushing in his past two games.
However you break down their numbers, the eye tests say Hurts and Jackson have been special and spectacular, locked in as they lead loaded, diverse offenses. Hurts is well settled in Year 2 of Philadelphia’s current system. Jackson has never had this many reliable weapons, and he’s motivated to play for a lucrative new contract.
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Philadelphia is positioned to take the NFC East title away from Dallas and looks like a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Baltimore is looking like the best team in the AFC North again and is getting back into the conference title conversation with Buffalo, Kansas City and others.
Granted, the Eagles and Ravens have taken advantage of favorable early schedules. The momentum will continue for Hurts with the weak defenses of the Jaguars and Cardinals next before his team takes on the Cowboys. Jackson is making an immediate step up in competition as the Ravens play Allen’s Bills and the Bengals in the following two games.
Hurts has appeal as the flashy dual-threat newcomer who has raised his all-around game throwing to A.J. Brown. DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. Jackson, who rolled to his first regular-season MVP in 2019, has that Aaron Rodgers “been there, done that” factor in play as he throws to Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman and Devin Duvernay.
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Allen came in as the heavy favorite in 2022 MVP odds. Mahomes, the 2018 MVP, always will be high on the list. Herbert won’t fade from the race, either, as he puts up big passing stats for the Chargers.
But Hurts and Jackson have been incomparable early because their dual-threat abilities have translating into dangerous, yet efficient, play. The tiebreaker in determining “most valuable” might be the rushing.
Hurts is second on the Eagles behind a resurgent Miles Sanders. With J.K. Dobbins (knee) returning in a limited role in Week 3, Jackson has been the only reliable Raven in the running game. His 243 yards rushing are three times more than runner-up Justice Hill’s 80 yards.
Although Hurts has a great narrative, Jackson “betting on himself” and working to break the bank as one of the league’s highest-paid QBs is hard to beat. With all due respect to the talented Ravens, the Eagles look like a more complete team capable of lifting Hurts. That’s in contrast to a fully healthy Jackson seeming to put Baltimore on his back as his team sorts out its issues on offense and defense.
Both Hurts and Jackson bulked up in the offseason to get stronger; they look physically and mentally sharper. They’re putting their teams in position to win games they need for their MVP cases without making unnecessary mistakes. Hurts has thrown only one interception. Jackson has thrown two after throwing 13 last season.
Before Hurts and Jackson see their odds shorten going into Week 4, Jackson is the better payoff given his name and elite recent production.
Jackson has a great chance to cement his status in a head-to-head vs. Allen in Baltimore next week and a Sunday night home showcase vs. Cincinnati in Week 5. Hurts will have a similar prime-time shot vs. Dallas in Week 6 ahead of a bye.
Just like the 2022 season, the NFL MVP race is a marathon, not a sprint. It makes sense, then, to go with the QB who has the most (production with his) legs.
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