Lamar Jackson was smart to be patient about getting his new contract with the Ravens, thanks to the Cardinals accelerating the timeline for extending Kyler Murray.
Murray, the No. 1 overall pick in 2019, agreed to a five-year, $230.5 million contract in late July. Last August, Josh Allen, the No. 7 overall pick in 2018, got a six-year deal from the Bills worth up to $258 million.
That bodes well for Jackson, who went 25 picks after Allen at No. 32 overall three years ago, and unlike Murray and Allen, has a league MVP award to his credit.
Murray’s contract averages to $46.1 million per season while he got $104.3 million out of his $160 million guaranteed at signing. Allen is at $43 million per season and had $100 million of $150 million guaranteed at signing.
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Given the recency of Murray signing to reflect the current market values of top NFL QBs, he provides Jackson with a more accurate floor for average annual salary and guaranteed money than draft classmate Allen.
In terms of years and total contract value, Patrick Mahomes is the ceiling with his unique 10-year, $450 million pact with the Chiefs. Aaron Rodgers, succeeding Jackson with consecutive MVP honors for the Packers, is for now the untouchable for average annual salary at $50.271 million. Deshaun Watson, with his $230 million from the Browns, is the outlier for guaranteed money because of a contingent contract.
Allen and Murray are signed through the 2028 season. The next QBs in line for similar megadeals would be the Bengals’ Joe Burrow and the Chargers’ Justin Herbert next summer. They have needed only two seasons each to prove they are long-term elite passers for their franchises.
Like Allen and Murray did before Jackson, Burrow and Herbert will reset the market for young QBs and push the average annual salaries closer to Rodgers’ number.
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Allen and Murray got their massive raises ahead of their fourth season. That’s bound to happen for Burrow and Herbert in 2023, too. Jackson pushing back his extension well into Year 4 works out well for him.
There’s no doubt Murray’s camp saw Allen’s deal and wanted to time it where he can be at a free agent at the same time. That’s because Murray, unlike Allen with Jackson and Burrow with Herbert, doesn’t have a high second contract peer in his 2019 draft class with the Giants not wanting to commit more to Daniel Jones yet.
Lamar Jackson contract projection
Jackson, in seeking the right parameters for his contract, cannot operate on the hypotheticals that either Burrow or Herbert or both will sign through 2029 and become free agents in 2030.
With Murray having a contract one year shorter than Allen’s, it makes sense for Jackson to sign a four-year deal, around when Murray and Allen will look for updated market-worthy restructured deals.
Based on the bump from Allen to Murray and using four years, there are reasonable benchmarks for the most important numbers in Jackson’s deal: average annual salary and practical guaranteed money.
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Jackson is then looking at something like a four-year, $198 million deal ($49.5 million per season) and jumping off from what Murray got with at least $170 million of it guaranteed.
From the perspectives of Jackson and the Ravens, those parameters make the most sense for a mutual agreement. Sometimes, more lucrative things come to those who wait.
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