Manchester City vs. Manchester United best bets, betting odds, and expert prediction for Sunday derby match

The Manchester derby never disappoints when it comes to storylines and the first edition of 2022/23 will be extra compelling as Premier League top scorer Erling Haaland plays against Manchester United and their new boss Erik ten Hag.

Defending champions Manchester City sit second in the Premier League table, while Man United lurk five points back in fifth, meaning this early-season matchup could potentially see the Red Devils catapult themselves into the early-season title discussion, though City will be relishing the chance to deal them a significant setback.

Man United come into this match especially hot, having turned around their abysmal start to the season under Ten Hag to the tune of four straight victories. Man City, meanwhile, have yet to lose on the campaign, but a pair of draws against Aston Villa and Newcastle have seen them concede the Premier League’s top spot to Arsenal.

Pep Guardiola has slipped on occasion against his local rivals, with six defeats to the Red Devils in 16 matches since joining Man City in 2016. Four of those defeats have come at The Etihad, a reminder that anything can happen in one of the Premier League’s fiercest local derbies.

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Man City vs. Man United betting odds

Manchester City, the two-time defending Premier League champions, are massively favored against Manchester United for Sunday’s match at The Etihad.

Pep Guardiola has engineered his side into a juggernaut, winning four of the last five domestic titles, while Man United have floundered for nearly a decade. Still, it’s surprising to see the odds so incredibly lopsided in a local rivalry that has produced mixed results in recent memory.

The bookmakers also predict an onslaught of goals in the match from both sides, with the total up to 3.5 and both teams to score heavily favored.

Man City vs. Man United recent history

• Man City vs. Man United all-time: Man City 57 wins, Man United 76 wins, 53 draws

This local rivalry is steeped in history, especially over the past decade as Man City have risen to continental prominence under the ownership of City Football Group.

Interestingly, these two teams love to spoil the day for the home crowd. Across the last 17 meetings between these two sides in all competitions, 10 of them have been won by the road team, with two draws and five home wins.

Man City vs. Man United last 5 matches

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Man City vs. Man United prediction

Man City are a juggernaut under Guardiola, and they come up against Man United at the wrong time. While floundering earlier in the season, Erik ten Hag’s squad are figuring things out under the new manager, with four consecutive wins by a 7-2 combined margin including victories over top sides Liverpool and Arsenal.

The most impressive improvement made over that four-game stretch is defensively, where Lisandro Martinez and Raphael Varane have developed a secure partnership after the benching of Harry Maguire. The personnel shift has coincided with the four-game winning streak, and while an expected goals allowed (xGA) number of 4.92 over that time suggests they have been slightly lucky to conced just two times, it’s still impressive that they engineered victories over solid opposition.

This suggests that Sunday’s match could see two relatively evenly-matched opponents do battle at The Etihad. While on paper the hosts should be slightly favored, the wildly skewed odds must also play a factor in selecting a winner.

If forced to pick a winner straight-up, Manchester City would still be the prudent selection, but with a surging Manchester United side given 7-to-1 or 8-to-1 longshot odds at most bookmakers, there’s far more value in selecting the Red Devils, given it’s not so farfetched that they can come away with a result. 

• Moneyline lean: Man United (+800 on Caesars)
• Against the Spread lean (handicap): Man United +1.5 goals (-105 on Caesars)
• Scoreline prediction: Man City 1-1 Man United

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Man City vs. Man United best bets, expert analysis

Man City vs. Man United best bet

• Pick: Man United +1.5 goals (-105 on Caesars)

A spread (handicap) of 1.5 goals in Man City’s favor sees Man United just needing to keep this match close and avoid a train wreck for the bet to prove successful.

Man City are not the offensive juggernaut that the explosive early return seems to suggest. Pep’s side has bagged 23 goals so far this season through seven matches, but with an expected goals (xG) mark of just 17.60, indicating an eventual regression. While the exceptional finishing skills of Erling Haaland and Kevin de Bruyne play a major factor, Man City continuing this outrageous goalscoring pace is unlikely.

Considering the aforementioned defensive improvement of Man United and this on Man City’s offensive overachievement, it’s hard to see the hosts running away with this match in blowout fashion.

Man City vs. Man United prop: Under total goals

• Pick: Under 3.5 total goals (-135 on Caesars)

Considering the improved defensive presence with Manchester United under Erik ten Hag since the benching of Harry Maguire, there are other numbers to also suggest the match on Sunday could return a lower goalscoring total.

While Man City have been outperforming their expected goals stats on the attacking end, that’s not been the case defensively as they’ve conceded six goals this season on a paltry 3.99 xGA.

An injury to John Stones on international duty is no matter, as Aymeric Laporte is likely ready to return. Even if both are out, new signing Manuel Akanji could step in alongside either Ruben Dias or Nathan Ake. Man City have the center-back depth to maintain normalcy throughout a long Premier League season. 

The Red Devils attack, meanwhile, has been somewhat unlucky, undershooting their xG total this season by a slight amount, but the numbers do not suggest an immediate bump. Antony’s arrival has created an excitement around Old Trafford, but Cristiano Ronaldo is still misfiring, and his finishing woes continued on international duty this past week as Portugal fell to Spain.

Especially with a heightened goals total (from the usual 2.5 to 3.5), it’s not a bad move to back the under. A play of under 2.5 could even be considered reasonable, but sticking with the under 3.5 mark is more advisable in the event the match enjoys some late drama.

Man City vs. Man United goals prop: Erling Haaland

• Prop kicker: Erling Haaland to score from inside the six-yard box (+200 on Caesars)

You’ve been living under a rock if you need us to tell you what Erling Haaland has done this season. An incredible 11-goal haul through seven matches has seen the Norwegian emerge as the single most dominant force in the Premier League.

Thanks to that early explosion, Haaland’s scoring odds are understandably parched, and offer no value at nearly -250. However, value can be created by narrowing the scope. Haaland’s game is that of a poacher, with unbelievable finishing technique. He has collected eight shots within the six-yard box this season, scoring on six of them, more than half his season’s goal haul.

On the flip side, Man United have given up those kind of chances. They conceded two shots inside the six-yard box to Arsenal last time out (plus two more just outside), another against Leicester City, two more to Southampton, and two more to Liverpool (plus two more just outside), getting away with all but one of them as only Mo Salah made them pay.

By selecting Haaland to score from close range, which he has done regularly with service from the likes of Kevin de Bruyne and Phil Foden, the odds increase significantly to something more palatable. And it would seem that even against an improved Man United defense, Haaland should get his chances in front of net.