For 8.2 innings, everything was going so swimmingly for the Mariners. They got to Astros ace Justin Verlander, knocking him out of the game after putting up a crooked number in the game’s opening four innings. They held Houston’s bats as quiet as one could hope for, whiffing Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena and Kyle Tucker a combined five times.
It amounted to a whole lot of nothing, though. Because with two runners on, two outs and slugging sensation Yordan Alvarez at the plate, reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray served an inside fastball that was summarily deposited over the right field wall.
YORDAN ALVAREZ. LEGEND!pic.twitter.com/9fuapguGDg
— Apollo Media (@ApolloHOU) October 11, 2022
Alvarez’s walk-off blast gave the Astros a 1-0 lead in the ALDS. It also left many an onlooker wondering if M’s manager Scott Servais made the right move putting Ray in the game. After all, Ray came into Tuesday’s game having experienced his fair share of struggles against the ‘Stros. Check it out:
Robbie Ray vs Astros this year: 14 R in 10.2 IP
— Jeremy Frank (@MLBRandomStats) October 11, 2022
MORE: MLB playoff schedule 2022
The logic of putting a southpaw in the game when facing a left-handed power bat like Alvarez makes sense, in theory. For what it’s worth, Alvarez posted a lower OPS against lefties in 2022 than right-handed pitching. That OPS still approached .998, though.
The decision to put Ray, a pitcher blessed with filthy stuff who turned out for the M’s just three days ago, was certainly a puzzling one. It’s not as if Ray zipped through his last outing; he lasted just three innings against the Jays, giving up two homers and four earned runs.
Servais had righties Matt Boyd and Erik Swanson in the bullpen. Swanson was electric in the regular season, posting a 1.57 ERA in 57 appearances. He also gave up just three homers in 53.2 innings. That amounts to a .5 home run per nine inning rate, three times better than Ray’s rate in 2022 (1.5).
Boyd represented a slightly riskier option — he only totaled 13.1 innings in 2022. But he had fared pretty well, too, giving up just two earned runs in that span.
MORE: Seattle’s rally shoe, explained
Servais went with Ray, though, a player who had made just two relief appearances since 2014, per The Athletic’s Corey Brock. And as the ball soared through the brisk Houston sky, it seemed he immediately came to regret his move.
The look on Scott Servais’ face as he watched Yordan Alvarez physically melt that baseball into the upper deck – knowing it was his decision to bring in Robbie Ray that has single-handedly cost the Mariners the game – is something I would spend 10 lifetimes of work to see. pic.twitter.com/dwBxTw4vzW
— Astros Fans UK (@AstrosFansUK) October 11, 2022
Don’t bring in a starter to do a relievers job.
— Ryan Webb (@RyanWebb58) October 11, 2022
After the game, Servais explained his move. It didn’t quite come out of left field, according to the M’s manager.
Scott Servais on having Ray face Yordan:
“We talked about it coming into the series. We talked about it pregame today. I looked at it in the 7th inning and said, hey, this could happen. So that was the plan going in. End of the day, you have a plan, we still got to execute it.”
— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) October 11, 2022
Alvarez’s moonshot — smoked with an exit velocity of 116 miles per hour — represents the clutchest postseason hit in major league history, based on Win Probability Added.
Yordan Alvarez’s 3-run walkoff had a +91% Win Probability Added, the highest of any play in MLB playoff history.
— Foolish Baseball (@FoolishBB) October 11, 2022
The win probability chart in the Astros’ Game 1 win vs. the Mariners 😅 pic.twitter.com/Q8uA0P1e28
— 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐒𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐍𝐞𝐰𝐬 (@sportingnews) October 11, 2022
Talk about a heart breaker.
Hits: 2
