No. 11 Michigan State takes on Washington in a Big Ten-Pac-12 non-conference matchup at Husky Stadium in Seattle on Saturday.
Game time is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET, and it will be televised on ABC.
Michigan State (2-0) is a road underdog despite the AP Top 25 ranking and two blowout victories to start Mel Tucker’s third season in East Lansing, Mich. Payton Thorne struggled with interceptions in a Week 2 victory against Akron, but the running back transfer tandem of Jalen Berger and Jarek Broussard has lived up to expectations so far. The Spartans have a team that is built to contend in the Big Ten East.
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Washington (2-0) has been a pleasant surprise in the early season under first-year coach Kalen DeBoer. Indiana transfer quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is off to a great start in victories against Kent State and Portland State, and there is a talented defense that will be in front of a rejuvenated crowd. It’s a level up in competition for both teams.
This is the fourth meeting between the Spartans and Huskies. The last meeting was the 1997 Aloha Bowl – a 51-23 Washington victory in which Nick Saban was the coach for Michigan State. Here is everything you need to know about Saturday’s matchup:
Michigan State vs. Washington odds
- Spread: Washington -3.5
- Over/under: 56.5
- Moneyline: Washington -123, Michigan State +149 (Caesars Sportsbook)
This is confidence in the new-look Huskies, so much so that the line opened at -3 and has ticked up in their favor. Both of Michigan State’s games have hit the under so far.
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Three trends to know
— Michigan State is a good road team. The Spartans are 6-5 S/U and 5-6 ATS as an underdog under Mel Tucker, and that includes a 3-3 S/U and 3-3 ATS mark as a road underdog.
— Washington is 5-6 S/U and 5-6 ATS in its last 11 games against ranked opponents. That includes a 2-4 S/U record in home games against Top 25 teams.
—Michigan State has lost 12 consecutive regular-season road games at Pac-12 schools, a streak that dates back to 1957. The Huskies have won 13 of their last 14 home games against Big Ten schools.
Three things to watch
— Michael Penix Jr. The Indiana transfer quarterback averages 354.5 yards of offense, and that comes with 10.1 yards per play between runs and passes. That’s second to USC’s Caleb Williams (10.3). Penix is back on the national stage after injuries derailed a promising 2020 season with the Hoosiers, and he looks comfortable in Washington’s scheme. Wayne Taulapapa (151 yards, 2 TDs) averages 6.6 yards per carry and is a good option in the backfield. The Spartans’ defense allows just 2.5 yards per carry. Can Washington shake that up?
— Spartans’ ground game. The tandem of Berger (227 yards, 4 TDs) and Broussard (135 yards, 2 TDs) has combined to average 6.2 yards per carry through two games. That rushing attack is the best way to silence a hostile crowd, and that should allow Payton Thorne to settle in on the road. Washington co-defensive coordinator William Inge and Chuck Morrell need to time run blitzes in on early downs to throw that rhythm off. Linebacker Alphonzo Tuputala and edge rusher Bralen Trice have combined for 5.5 tackles for loss in the early season. Will they be difference makers?
— Meet Jacoby Windmon. Michigan State edge rusher Jacoby Windmon, a UNLV transfer, has dominated the Spartans’ first two games with 12 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss and a FBS-best 5.5 sacks. Penix has taken just two sacks in two games. Washington left tackle Jaxson Kirkland, a two-time All Pac-12 selection, has not played in the Huskies’ first two games because of injury. Washington offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb said this week the plan is to play Kirkland.
Stat that matters
Two receivers in this matchup average over 15 yards per catch. Michigan State’s Keon Coleman (6 catches, 120 yards, TD) is off to a great start opposite lead receiver Jayden Reed (8 catches, 107 yards). Washington’s Jalen McMilan (9 catches, 214 yards, 3 TDs) and Giles Jackson (8 catches, 126 yards) will be the first real test for the Spartans’ improved secondary. Those chunk plays in the receiving game can turn the momentum in a tight game like this.
Michigan State vs. Washington prediction
That Big Ten vs. Pac-12 road stat is eye-opening, and this is a true test for the Spartans. It’s also an audition of sorts for the Huskies, which have been rumored as a potential partner if the Big Ten adds even more teams. Penix will make some plays early, and the Huskies will have an early lead. Tucker won’t flinch, however, and the Spartans will stay committed to the run. Penix will have a chance to lead a game-winning drive, but Michigan State comes up with the big stop in the fourth quarter.
Final score: Michigan State 28, Washington 23
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