MLB Division Series Betting Guide: Best bets and props for ALDS/NLDS

Following an entertaining Wild Card round that featured three “upsets” (Philadelphia Phillies over St. Louis Cardinals; Seattle Mariners over Toronto Blue Jays; San Diego Padres over New York Mets), the MLB playoffs continue this week in what should be an action-packed Division Series. As in seasons pasts, the Division Series remains a best-of-five format with the higher seed playing host in three of the potential five games.

MORE MLB PLAYOFFS: Sporting News’ Staff Brackets, World Series Picks | Full 2022 MLB playoff bracket

The reigning American League champion Houston Astros (-220) sit as the biggest favorite in the Division Series round, but can the Seattle Mariners (+185) carry over their hot play and knock out their fellow AL West foe? Will the Philadelphia Phillies (+155) play spoiler against the Atlanta Braves (-185) en route to their first NLCS appearance since 2010? Will the rest advantage help the Yankees’ (-210) and Dodgers’ (-215) chances of making it through the Division round?

Below, we’ll list the current odds to win the World Series per DraftKings Sportsbook along with the series prices for the Divisional round while providing our best series bets and props for the NLDS and ALDS.

Updated MLB World Series Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

For our World Series best bets, make sure to check out our MLB Playoffs betting guide.

MLB Division Series Odds

Best MLB Division Series bets

Series Handicap: Atlanta Braves -1.5 games (+140) against the Philadelphia Phillies (implied probability 41.67 percent)

Atlanta looks to get off to an early 1-0 series lead as they’ll lean on ace Max Fried (14-7, 2.48 ERA, 2.70 FIP) in Game 1 against Philadelphia’s Ranger Suárez (10-7, 3.65 ERA, 3.87 FIP). While the Phillies swept the Cardinals in two games, they were fairly fortunate Cardinals’ closer Ryan Helsley had an off-night in Game 1, otherwise, the Redbirds would have likely sent the series to a winner-take-all Game 3, potentially advancing into the NLDS themselves.

Phillies’ co-aces Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola pitched as advertised, stymieing the Cardinals’ offense (12.3 IP, 6 H, 0 ER), but keeping the Braves offense in check will be a much tougher task. Wheeler and Nola are pegged to start Games 2 and 3, but if Atlanta jumps out to a 1-0 series lead, the Braves are capable of winning the series by two games, so long as they can take one of two against Wheeler and Nola. The Phillies’ run-prevention unit was phenomenal, but outside their six-run ninth inning in Game 1, the offense was just okay (1 HR, 2-12 RISP). To take down the defending World Series champions, Philadelphia’s going to have to clutch up with RISP while relying on the long ball, something that might not come to fruition.

A 3-1 series victory in favor of the Braves is possible, and while it’s more likely Atlanta advances to their third-straight NLCS, getting +140 on the series handicap is another way to approach betting on the series if you aren’t inclined to lay -185. 

Series Handicap: Houston Astros -1.5 games (+115) against the Seattle Mariners (implied probability 46.51 percent)

Similar logic to the bet above, but if you don’t want to lay -220 to back the Astros to advance to the ALCS, then a bet on the series handicap of -1.5 games at +115 is a way to look. Houston took 12-of-19 regular-season meetings against the Mariners and their overall stability can lead the ‘Stros to win this ALDS matchup by at least two games.

Astros ace Justin Verlander gets the ball in Game 1 and has had his way against the Mariners this season, posting a 5-1 record with 2.34 ERA and a 43:6 K-to-BB ratio over 42.1 innings of work. He’s backed up by a well-rounded starting rotation (Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers Jr., Christian Javier, José Urquidy) and bullpen that’s capable of limiting Seattle’s offensive output.

Houston’s offense leads the league with the lowest strikeout rate (17.6 percent) over the past month as their ability to extend at-bats and put the ball in play can result in the Astros generating enough run support to win this series by two-plus games. A matchup against Luis Castillo in Game 2 will be a challenge, but it’s really tough to bet against Houston in October.

Best prop bets for MLB Division series

Home run leader: Mookie Betts +1600 (implied probability 5.88 percent)

Betts enters the postseason in a bit of a cold spell, slashing .223/.296/.420 over the past month, but is too talented of a hitter to be held in check for very long. He’s fared well against the Padres this season, posting a .361 batting average along with belting three home runs. Betts tends to play his best when the lights are the brightest, and his ability to barrel up the baseball (76th percentile hard-hit rate, 65th percentile barrel rate) could lead to him leading all players in homers at the end of the Division Series. 

Other considerations: Yordan Alvarez (+1100), Will Smith (+2500), Kyle Tucker (+3000)

Total bases leader: Freddie Freeman +400 (implied probability 20.00 percent)

All Freeman does is get on base as he ended the regular-season leading all NL hitters with a .407 on-base percentage. Freeman’s ability to grind out at-bats and consistently spray the baseball into the gaps can result in the 2021 World Series champion racking up the most total bases. Additionally, a good deal of runs are expected in the Dodgers-Padres series relative to the other matchups.

Other considerations: Aaron Judge (+450), Mookie Betts (+1000), Michael Harris (+3500)

Series with most runs: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres +150 (implied probability 40.00 percent)

As we alluded to above, expect a good deal of runs out west, as offense will likely be the focal point in this NLDS matchup. Both lineups are lethal one through nine and while their respective pitching staffs are effective, their run-prevention units aren’t nearly as potent as the offenses are. Los Angeles’ starting rotation is fairly weak compared to past Dodger postseason rotations. The Dodgers might have to rely on their offense to get them back to the NLCS. San Diego’s offense did impress against the Mets, as there’s a chance it carries over this week. With this series potentially going four-plus games, it could result in it being the highest-scoring matchup.