It used to be that the worst team in baseball was guaranteed to draft first overall the next year. Though it is not always as immediately gratifying as taking first picks in other sports where the players reach the top level of the pros quicker, the first pick can still greatly impact the future of a franchise.
But the Nationals, who finished 55-107 last season, will be the first team not guaranteed to have that pick. Instead, they will have to go through a lottery system to see where they will pick in 2023
When Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association agreed to a new collective bargaining agreement earlier in 2022, they added a draft lottery that would impact the top six picks each year as a measure to discourage teams from tanking.
The 2023 MLB Draft will be the first time the lottery impacts the order of the selections.
MORE: MLB free agency tracker 2022
Here’s all the information you need to know about the MLB Draft lottery.
MLB Draft Lottery, explained
In the past, the MLB draft has been the reverse regular-season standings. Part of the new CBA led to the introduction of a draft lottery.
The draft lottery has a simple format. The 18 teams that missed the postseason will each be placed in a lottery to decide the first six picks. The odds are based on reverse standings, with the worst teams in the league having greater chances to win the top picks in the draft.
If a team does not get selected to be in the top six picks, they will be placed back in the reverse order of standings.
There is still a chance that a team might not have an option to receive a lottery pick in a given year. According to MLB.com, a team with revenue-sharing payouts can only have a lottery pick in no more than two consecutive years, and teams without revenue-sharing payments won’t be able to have back-to-back top-six picks. If a team can’t have a lottery pick, the highest selection it can have is No. 10.
The lottery will only impact the first round. After that, reverse order of winning percentage will determine the order of the second through 20th rounds.
2023 MLB Draft Lottery: Odds to win No. 1 pick
Washington might have had the worst record, but each of the top three bottom teams have the same odds at the first overall pick. The Nationals, Athletics and Pirates will each have a 16.5 percent chance of landing the first overall pick.
While those odds are high, it still means that there is a 50.5 percent chance one of the top three worst teams won’t wind up picking first in the draft.
If the Nationals somehow don’t get a pick within the top six selections, the lowest they could pick would be seventh with the reverse order of the standings.
Here’s a look at the odds, according to MLB.com.
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Nationals | 16.5% |
| Athletics | 16.5% |
| Pirates | 16.5% |
| Reds | 13.2% |
| Royals | 10% |
| Tigers | 7.5% |
| Rangers | 5.5% |
| Rockies | 3.9% |
| Marlins | 2.7% |
| Angels | 1.8% |
| Diamondbacks | 1.4% |
| Cubs | 1.1% |
| Twins | 0.9% |
| Red Sox | 0.8% |
| White Sox | 0.6% |
| Giants | 0.5% |
| Orioles | 0.4% |
| Brewers | 0.2% |
What time is the 2023 MLB Draft Lottery?
- Date: Dec. 6, 2022
- Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
The 2023 MLB Draft lottery will be held on Tuesday, Dec. 6, at the Winter Meetings in San Diego.
What channel is the MLB Draft Lottery on?
- TV channel: MLB Network
- Live stream: MLB.com, fuboTV
MLB fans can watch the first-ever draft lottery on MLB Network, with streaming options to view it on MLB.com with a subscription or on fuboTV, which offers a free trial.
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