In what should be a defensive slugfest, the Patriots host the Bears on Monday Night Football to cap off a wild Week 7 of NFL action. New England (3-3) has endured a roller-coaster ride of a season, filled with injuries, guys stepping up, strong running, and elite defense (you know, a typical non-Brady Patriots season). For Chicago (2-4), the rebuild continues — and continues to sometimes be an eyesore.
Could Zappe hour be over in Foxboro? Bill Belichick has been typically ambiguous about the potential QB controversy, stating only that starting QB Mac Jones’ status remains day-to-day three weeks removed from his high-ankle sprain. After taking over for veteran backup Brian Hoyer (concussion), Bailey Zappe greatly exceeded expectations — he won both his starts and has maintained a nearly 73-percent completion rate. Still, sources say Jones will be the man once he’s ready.
As for the Bears, Justin Fields remains the intended QB of the future but the growing pains continue to stand out. The athletic second-year signal-caller only has one game with multiple TDs — the monsoon win over San Fran in Week 1 — and he has more interceptions (5) than TDs (4). Fields’ play has clearly been impacted by his offensive line (he’s been sacked an NFL-high 23 times) and his lack of game-changing receivers.
MORE MNF: FanDuel lineup
With two teams often struggling to move the ball through the air, building a strong DFS lineup can be difficult. We must take into account the expected narrative of the game and utilize stats and trends to make the best informed decisions in roster construction. Our DraftKings Showdown squad should tell a story of how we expect the game to unfold — the closer we come to predicting the game’s outcome, the better our chances of winning our Monday Night Showdown.
Before we get into our picks, here are the key scoring settings for DraftKings Showdown contests: They’re full-point PPR and there are three-point bonuses for 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards, and 100 receiving yards. The Captain pick costs 1.5 times a player’s original price, but he also gets his point total multiplied by 1.5.
MORE DK SHOWDOWN: How to win a Showdown contest
DraftKings Showdown Picks: Bears at Patriots Week 7 Monday Night Football
$50,000 budget, need at least one player from each team.
Captain (1.5x points, 1.5x salary): RB Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots ($16,200)
We typically want the best fantasy asset in the captain spot, as their points will be multiplied by 1.5 times. And with Stevenson clearly taking over this backfield since Week 1 starter Damien Harris suffered a hamstring injury two weeks ago. Stevenson, touted by Belichick as a dual-threat RB prior to the start of his sophomore season as a pro, has played 114 of a possible 130 offensive snaps over the past two games. And he has not taken his increased usage for granted.
In Week 5, the Oklahoma product gashed the Lions for 161 rushing yards on 25 carries — his second game in three weeks in which he finished with 7.0 yards per carry. Then in Week 6, Stevenson turned 19 carries into 76 yards and two TDs. He also has four catches in three of New England’s past four games.
With the points boost and the three-point bonus for 100-yard rushing efforts, Stevenson seems like the no-brainer play at captain. Regardless of who starts under center for New England, this will be a sloppy QB battle of young guys struggling with strong opposing secondaries. The floor and ceiling Stevenson affords you — especially in a PPR format — just can’t be matched in this game.
FLEX RB Damien Harris, Patriots ($8,400)
For all those worried about us exclusively featuring Stevenson, fret no more: we’re rolling with Harris as well. Now that the fourth-year RB has recovered from the hamstring injury he sustained in Week 4, we’re monopolizing the Pats’ backfield to all but guarantee we profit from New England’s ground scoring production. This could easily be a game that sees the Pats finish with 30-35 rushing attempts. Chicago has a pretty good pass rush, and excessive drop-backs could be a hazard to Mac Jones’ recently healed ankle. New England has logged 32.3 carries per game over the past three weeks, top five in the NFL in that span. And on the season, Belichick’s backfield has averaged just a tick under 30 carries, sixth most. The Bears have served up the ninth-most DraftKings points to RBs this year, while surrendering the second-fewest passing TDs and third-fewest air yards. The way to beat Chicago is through the running game, and Belichick and company will happily oblige that task.
FLEX WR Darnell Mooney, Bears ($7,400)
Mooney has been the only real glimmer of hope in Chicago’s pass-catching corps, finally developing a bit of chemistry with Fields over the past few weeks. He hauled in 4-of-5 targets for 94 yards against a tough Giants secondary back in Week 4 and brought down seven of his whopping 12 targets on Thursday Night Football in Week 6 against the Commanders. He nearly caught the game-winner in that affair, just barely landing out of bounds at the goal line as time expired. That’s a 20.8 DraftKings score if he finds a way to land inbounds on that wild last-second catch — but instead, he finished with a still-respectable 13.8. New England has a tough defense, but it’s not completely unbreakable. The Pats rank 15th in passing yards allowed and 19th in pass TDs surrendered. I’d much rather roll with Mooney in a game Chicago’s expected to lose 24-16 — game script favors another pass-heavy second-half, and Mooney easily serves as Fields’ go-to target. Here’s betting he lands in the end zone like Amari Cooper did against New England last week.
FLEX WR DeVante Parker, Patriots ($7,000)
Many would opt for speedy rookie wideout Tyquan Thornton here after he caught 3-of-4 targets and found the end zone in Week 6. But that seems reactionary — Devante Parker remains the best wide receiver on this Patriots offense in this price range, and he should benefit from Jones’ return to the field. Additionally, lead Pats receiver Jakobi Meyers has been battling a knee injury of late, so don’t be surprised if Parker sees even more usage than the six targets he saw last week (he finished with four catches for 64 yards against the Browns). When Jones last played back in Week 3 against the Ravens, he connected with Parker five times on 10 targets for a total of 156 yards. Parker put up 23.4 DraftKings points that day, a massive performance for a guy who cost $3,000 at that time. While we don’t think he’ll sniff 20 points against the Bears, we still live his PPR floor at $7,000.
FLEX TE Hunter Henry, Patriots ($5,000)
By now, you must be realizing that I have the Patriots winning this game handily. And you may be questioning my choice of going with multiple pass-catchers but not the Patriots QB. But we still don’t officially know who will start under center for New England. And I don’t expect Henry to go off yardage-wise — he’s just here for a cheap TD insurance plan. If the running backs don’t score on a red-zone or goal-line trip, the primary source of TDs figures to be Parker or Henry. Jones is coming off a lower-body injury, Zappe can’t be trusted to run the ball (8 rushes for 1 yard all season), and Meyers has a knee issue. We’re going for scoring monopolization in a game we have New England winning easily. The volatility will be high regardless of our ancillary pieces this Monday, but this approach feels less volatile than rolling with either starting QB.
FLEX DST Patriots ($5,600)
The Patriots have once again stunned the NFL with a bunch of lesser-known names stepping up and stifling opponents. Belichick has once again proved his genius, masterfully scheming against opposing offensive game plans and making mincemeat out of otherwise-strong skill players. The Bears are mistake-prone — with the sixth-most turnovers in the pros — and nobody has been sacked more than Fields. A cold, rainy primetime battle at Gillette Stadium is exactly the opposite of what this young Chicago offense needs right now. The carnage could be extraordinary, and we’ll take all the points we can get from it to cap off what we hope is a lucrative DFS Showdown performance.
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