The NFC standings at the midway point of the 2022 NFL season are much different than they were at the end of 2021. None of last season’s division winners — the Cowboys, Packers, Rams and Buccaneers — are in first place after Week 8.
If the season ended before Week 9, only Dallas (6-2) from that group would be returning to the playoffs. Green Bay (3-5), Los Angeles (3-4) and Tampa Bay (3-5) are all under .500. Overall, the NFC would have only two repeat playoff teams, Dallas and Philadelphia (7-0). That’s a lot of potential massive turnover.
The AFC, meanwhile has a lot familiar first-place teams in the Bills, Titans, Chiefs and Ravens.
So will the surprise NFC division leaders finish the job and go into the playoffs all as top-four seeds? Here’s breaking down the perfect Eagles and the three even more stunning front-runners:
NFC standings, playoff picture: Breaking down first-place teams
1. Eagles (7-0 in NFC East)
The Eagles are by far the least surprising in terms of being in first place, but still being undefeated is incredible for any team in a 2022 season filled with unpredictability. The Eagles have needed to be flawless given the Cowboys and Giants are each just 1.5 games back in the division at 6-2 with plenty of games left to play.
Philadelphia’s schedule remains very favorable going forward. The Eagles won’t see another current team with a winning record until the Titans at home in Week 13. Outside of the Packers at home in Week 12, the toughest NFC foes left are the Giants in Weeks 14 and 18 and the Cowboys in Arlington in Week 16. The Eagles’ perfect run can continue for a while and a 14-3 record is a reasonable goal.
MORE: A.J. Brown is Terrell Owens all over again for Eagles
The Eagles have proved to be every bit as good their record with their steady play on offense and defense and few holes. Not only are they on their way to locking up the division, but with an early win over the Vikings, they are also on the fast track to the No. 1 seed.
2. Vikings (6-1 in NFC North)
The Vikings’ lone loss was to the Eagles on the road on a Monday night in Week 2. The schedule has been rather favorable after they crushed the Packers at home in Week 1. The Vikings’ only win over a team with a current winning record came in Week 6 vs. the 5-3 Dolphins.
Minnesota has a massive 3.5-game lead over Green Bay and Chicago (both 3-5) and it has beaten both teams once already. The toughest games outside the division are, by far, Buffalo and Dallas back-to-back in Weeks 10 and 11. The Vikings will play the Giants and Packers in consecutive games in Weeks 16 and 17.
MORE: Patrick Peterson takes shot at Cardinals, Kyler Murray with ‘Call of Duty’ INT celebration
Minnesota is bound to slide a little, but even with some stumbles, 11-6 looks like the absolute floor. Even that mark would require the Packers or Bears to go 8-1 in the second half to pass them in the division, a highly unlikely scenario. The Vikings are sitting prettier than even the Eagles to win their division, and getting to 12-5 should secure the No. 2 seed.
3. Seahawks (5-3 in NFC West)
The Seahawks, by most sportsbooks’ estimations, were assigned a win total of 5.5 before the season. They’re almost at that projection just short of halfway through the season.
Consider Seattle was supposed to take major steps back with Geno Smith replacing Russell Wilson at quarterback while also working through a major rebuild. The team finished 7-10 and last in the West last season. That makes this a jaw-dropping development. Also consider, the Seahawks were the only team in the division not to make the playoffs in 2021.
MORE: Tyler Lockett appears to take a dig at Russell Wilson after Seattle’s Week 8 win
The division lead stands at a precarious one game over the 49ers (4-4), who beat the Seahawks in Santa Clara in Week 2. The rematch with the Niners in Seattle doesn’t come until Week 15. They also still need to play the third-place Rams (3-4) twice in Weeks 13 and 18.
Other than those division rivals and a rematch with the Cardinals next week in Arizona, the Seahawks’ toughest games left are vs. the Buccaneers in Germany in Week 10 and at the Chiefs in Week 16.
The 49ers have a favorable enough schedule to go on a second-half tear after their Week 9 bye. The Rams, who had their bye in Week 7, have a more challenging slate ahead and are also not playing as well. They’ve already been swept by the 49ers.
San Francisco was the preseason favorite in the West and will live up to those lofty expectations after a slow start to .500, thanks to a finish fueled by Christian McCaffrey. Seattle is still in good shape to get a wild card and displace Los Angeles and/or Arizona from the playoff field with a very reasonable 10-7 record.
4. Falcons (4-4 in NFC South)
The Falcons are the third and most surprising of all the improbable NFC big birds. They were projected for 4.5 wins, and that’s about to go over with just one more win needed in the final nine games.
Atlanta is up a game on Tampa Bay (3-5) and New Orleans (3-5), two teams to which it has already lost. In terms of falling back on a wild card, the Falcons beat the Seahawks and 49ers but lost to the Rams. They’ll draw the 4-4 Commanders in Landover in Week 12.
MORE: Falcons survive Panthers in OT to take sole possession of NFC South lead
The Falcons’ average margin of victory is 6 points, with just one two-possession win. Their average margin of defeat has been 7 points, with just one two-possession loss. They are average in every which way, which means they will keep yo-yoing regardless of competition level.
There are many more very winnable games in the next five weeks before a Week 14 bye. After that stretch comes the final four games, which will determine whether the Falcons are a playoff team. Rematches with the Saints and Buccaneers sandwich matchups with the Ravens and Cardinals.
The Falcons are headed to 9-8 at best. The Buccaneers are still the best bet to take the division, with the Saints more likely to fade with the toughest schedule left among the three teams. Atlanta should just hope that hosting Tampa Bay in Week 18 will become a de facto division title game.
Hits: 0
