Despite several big upsets last week, the experts from PoolGenius were on fire with their recommendations in this column. They made cases for why the underdog Giants, Vikings, and Browns and favorite Dolphins had more value than the public was giving them credit for. Sure enough, all came through with big Ws. Let’s try to keep the good times rolling by looking at five Week 2 NFL picks that could give you an edge to win an NFL pick ’em pool or confidence pool in 2022.
Week 2 is commonly referred to as “Overreaction Week.” It usually presents plenty of opportunities to make great value picks where the public is too high or too low on a team based on its outcome in the opening week.
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Week 2 NFL Pick ’em Pool Picks: Tips, strategy
How we identify NFL Week 2 value picks
Making good predictions is only part of the story when it comes to maximizing your edge in football picks pools. You also need to consider how your opponents are expected to pick each game. After all, you can only rise in the standings if you score points that your opponents miss. Two general strategies can help achieve that goal:
- Look for unpopular picks that might be worth an educated gamble
- Avoid trendy upset picks that aren’t worth the risk
The picks listed below provide some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 2 picks by taking on little or no additional risk. However, that doesn’t mean you should pick all of them — the upset picks especially. The best specific combination of Week 2 picks for your football pool depends on things like its size, rules, and prize structure. (To learn why, check out our free articles about strategy for winning football pick ’em pools, or just use our Football Pick ’em Picks product to get our Week 2 pick recommendations for your pool.)
Note: Win odds and estimated pick popularity data below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want the latest numbers, our product updates multiple times per day.
New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers
Point Spread: -2.0
Pick Popularity: 24%
Category: Value favorite
The Patriots have continued to move up in the betting markets, from a one-point to a two-point favorite. Meanwhile, the public is all over Pittsburgh in this game, treating them like a larger favorite when the Steelers are actually an underdog.
Yes, the Patriots struggled in Week 1 and the Steelers won, but Pittsburgh was horrific on offense with quarterback Mitchell Trubisky under center. It nearly lost a game in which it was plus-five in turnovers, and Cincinnati repeatedly missed kicks because its snapper got hurt. Trubisky averaged only 5.1 yards per pass attempt, while RB Najee Harris suffered a foot injury, although he says he plans to suit up against the Patriots.
The Steelers beat the Bengals because the Pittsburgh defense generated so many big plays. However, reigning Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt is now out with a torn pectoral that he suffered late in the win over Cincinnati.
There are lots of reasons to think the Steelers are not as good as their win over the Bengals suggests. You are getting a ton of value here with the public all over the underdog.
WEEK 2 DFS LINEUPS: FanDuel | DraftKings | Yahoo
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks
Point Spread: -9.5
Pick Popularity: 79%
Category: Big value favorite
Getting even a slight value favorite with win odds of 80 percent is virtually unheard of in pick ’em contests, but that’s what we have this week. For some perspective, nearly as many people are picking an outright underdog (Pittsburgh) to win this week as are picking the 49ers (almost a double-digit favorite) at home.
Seattle is yet another example of the prime-time phenomenon. The Seahawks beat the Broncos in Russell Wilson’s hotly anticipated return to Seattle on Monday Night Football, while San Francisco lost the opener with Trey Lance at QB, mustering just 10 points in a monsoon in Chicago. According to our models, the 49ers have the fourth-highest win odds this week, but nine teams are being picked at a higher rate than they are.
In short, the public is far too willing to pick an upset here based on last week’s scores. The 49ers outgained the Bears 331 yards to 204 yards last week, but San Francisco made a few untimely turnovers and failed to stop the Bears on the few drives during which Chicago actually mustered any offense. Seattle, meanwhile, was outgained 432 yards to 267 yards, but it won because the Broncos fumbled twice on the goal line and repeatedly blew opportunities.
Over time, you will maximize your results if you pick the teams that have higher net yardage margins and pick against the teams that don’t.
Football Picks From TeamRankings:
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New York Jets at Cleveland Brownss
Point Spread: -5.5
Pick Popularity: 5%
Category: Value upset gamble in weekly contests
If you’re looking for a bigger upset to take in weekly prize contests, especially larger ones, the Jets are your high-leverage play this week. If you just looked at the scores last week compared to expectations, you can see why the public is overreacting here.
The Jets were the one big underdog that lost comfortably in Week 1. The final score was Baltimore 24-9, but dig a little deeper and the game was a lot closer than the score would suggest.
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson hit two big third-down passes for scores. Meanwhile, Jets QB Joe Flacco threw a key interception when his receiver slipped. New York actually gained 104 more yards than Baltimore, but a few big plays swung the score.
One person, meanwhile, is not very likely to hit a 50-plus-yard bomb in this game. That would be Browns QB Jacoby Brissett, who is the very definition of a game manager. Brissett averaged 4.3 yards per attempt in the win over the Panthers in Week 1 and averaged only 5.7 yards per attempt last year while playing for Miami.
The Jets have a better chance to win this game than the public thinks. The Browns are not good at passing or creating big plays in the air.
WEEK 2 FANTASY PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/ST | Kicker
New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Point Spread: +2.5
Popularity: 21%
Category: Value upset gamble in weekly contests
The Saints are only a slight underdog at home against Tampa Bay, but the public is picking the Bucs heavily coming off their big Sunday night win in prime time. As we also see with Seattle, you can usually find value opposite the prime-time winners from the week before.
No team has frustrated Tom Brady more in recent years than the Saints, which is reflected in this betting line. The Bucs are just 1-4 against New Orleans with Brady at QB and have averaged just 16.6 points in those five games.
Given that you can take a small underdog here at low popularity, the Saints present a compelling value gamble to consider.
MORE POOLGENIUS: Survivor pool strategy | Pick ’em strategy
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Minnesota Vikings
Point Spread: -2.0
Popularity: 43%
Category: Value favorite
While not quite as unpopular as New England is as a betting favorite, Philadelphia also presents a value proposition that is hard to pass up in pick ’em pools.
The Eagles and Vikings both got off to impressive starts in Week 1. The Vikings’ victory was notable since it was against the Packers, but the final margin in the Eagles’ win does not truly reflect the game flow. The Lions scored late to get the backdoor cover.
Philadelphia rolled up 455 yards and 27 first downs in its first game with star WR A.J. Brown in the fold. That means this game has all the makings of an offensive shootout on Monday Night Football. With the majority of the public on the other side, it pays to just stick with the betting odds favorite here.
MORE POOLGENIUS: Week 2 survivor pool advice
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Good luck in your pools this week!
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