With massive upsets occurring virtually every week, NFL survivor pools are virtual ghost towns and pick ’em pools are uglier than ever. Fortunately, the experts from PoolGenius are here to help salvage your season by breaking down the most popular survivor pool picks and highlighting five potential Week 8 NFL picks that could give you an edge in pick ’em pools.
Last week was rough for the teams featured in this article, as popular public picks hit big for the first time in 2022. Even after the 0-5 week, we’re still up on the season. For the season, our pick ’em value picks are 22-13, but the average public picker is just 19-16 on those same 35 games.
To win weekly prizes in pick ’em contests, you generally want to employ higher-variance pick strategies that are more boom-or-bust. Though it didn’t work out last week, taking the right calculated gambles is why our subscribers have reported winning a weekly pick ’em contest prize at a rate over three times as high as expected so far in 2022.
In survivor pools, it was the same old story last week: carnage. The two most popular picks, New England and Tampa Bay, both lost, and over half of the remaining survivor pool entries were eliminated yet again. Our recommendations to subscribers advanced at a higher rate in the public because we largely advised avoiding New England, though we did lose some picks on Tampa Bay. Through seven weeks, though, only two percent of the public is still alive in survivor pools compared to nine percent of our subscriber entries (over four times the survival rate).
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Week 8 NFL Pick ’em Pool Picks: Tips, strategy
The picks listed below provide some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 8 picks by taking on little or no additional risk. However, that doesn’t mean you should pick all of them — the upset picks especially. Read our football pick ’em strategy to find out why.)
Note: Win odds and estimated pick popularity data below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want the latest numbers, our product updates multiple times per day.
Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans
Point Spread: +2.5
Pick Popularity: 8%
Category: Value gamble in weekly pools
A whopping 91 percent of the public is taking the 4-2 Titans over the 1-4-1 Texans, but Titans QB Ryan Tannehill was in a walking boot after last week’s game and his health status is up in the air for this week. If he can’t go, rookie QB Malik Willis would start.
The Texans have fared well against the Titans recently. They beat Tennessee in their first matchup last year in a big upset, and they nearly took out Tennessee again in the regular season finale when the Titans were playing for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
The Titans have won four straight games, but they’ve been far from dominating. In fact, they’ve been outgained in yards in all six of their games so far. Their passing offense has been struggling, and rookie WR Treylon Burks’ foot injury further set them back.
If Tannehill is out or limited, that makes an upset even more likely. For modest risk, you can set up a very high-leverage, fade-the-public opportunity here with a Texans pick.
New England Patriots at New York Jets
Point Spread: -1.5
Pick Popularity: 27%
Category: Value favorite
New England just got embarrassed on Monday Night Football and has a brewing quarterback dilemma. Meanwhile, the Jets just won their fourth game in a row. However, New York also lost star rookie RB Breece Hall to a season-ending knee injury, and he had been making most of the big plays for an offense that otherwise hasn’t been very impressive.
This is a chance to pick a Bill Belichick team coming off a big loss. Historically, Belichick’s teams tend to bounce back strongly in the face of controversy and drama. With the Patriots a very slim favorite and the Jets the far more popular picking, going with the Pats allows you to take the more likely winner at a great value.
WEEK 8 DFS LINEUPS: DraftKings | FanDuel
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Point Spread: +3.5
Pick Popularity: 9%
Category: Value gamble in weekly contests
The Bengals are coming off a blowout win over Atlanta while Cleveland has lost four in a row (three of which came by a field goal or less). As such, the public is heavily on Cincinnati on the road in this rivalry game.
The Browns have a strong running game with RB Nick Chubb, and while the defense has dealt with injuries up front, it looks like it’s finally getting healthier. Cleveland held the Ravens to just 254 yards in their loss last week, which was the first time the Browns have held an opponent under 300 yards since the season opener.
Cleveland has major value as an unpopular choice in the Battle of Ohio on Monday Night Football.
Football Picks From TeamRankings:
Pick ’em Pool Picks | Survivor Picks | NFL Betting Picks
Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (in London)
Point Spread: +2.5
Popularity: 22%
Category: Value gamble in weekly contests
With Russell Wilson (hamstring) out and the offense struggling, the public is very down on this Denver team that continues to lose close game after close game.
If the line remains under a field goal, Denver is attractive as a small upset pick with high leverage. Since the 2010 season, 2.5-point underdogs have won about 45 percent of the time, but only 22 percent of the public is picking the Broncos.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Point Spread: +1.0
Popularity: 30%
Category: Unpopular toss-up
The Bucs have lost two straight games in embarrassing fashion. They managed just three points in a shocking loss to the Panthers last week after getting upset by the Steelers the week before.
Now, the Bucs return home to face Baltimore on Thursday night, and at publishing time, the betting line was close to a pick ’em. However, 70 percent of the public is taking the Ravens and counting out Tom Brady.
The Tampa Bay defense is playing really well, and outside of their loss to Kansas City, it’s held every opponent to fewer than 350 total yards and 20 first downs. If the offense can turn things around, the Bucs could start your week with an edge against the public.
Week 8 NFL Survivor Pool Advice: Top picks, strategy
Here are the five most popular Week 8 picks in survivor pools as of this writing:
- Dallas (30% pick popularity) vs. Chicago
- Philadelphia (27%) vs. Pittsburgh
- Buffalo (13%) vs. Green Bay
- Miami (6%) at Detroit
- Tennessee (5%) at Houston
It’s no surprise that the three teams favored by nine or more points are the three most popular picks (Dallas, Philadelphia, and Buffalo). However, there is no “upper middle class” in Week 8, as no other team is currently favored by more than four points.
That makes picks like Miami and Tennessee much riskier. Meanwhile, Buffalo, Philadelphia, and Dallas all have pretty high future value. Buffalo has the most future value, and Dallas’s best future matchups come much later in the season.
That is likely contributing to Dallas being the most popular pick in Week 8, but if there are a lot of entries still alive in your pool, you might still need to prepare to go the distance.
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It uses algorithms to identify the calculated risks that give you the best chance to win game-winner pools, point-spread pools, and confidence pools, optimizing pick recommendations based on your pool’s size, rules, and prize structure.
NFL Survivor Picks is our product for survivor pools, again providing customized weekly pick recommendations based on the size and specific rules of the survivor pools you play in and the teams each of your entries has already used so far.
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Good luck in your pools this week!
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