Week 11 in the NFL was brutal with some unexpected blowouts and favorites not taking care of business as much as they should have against inferior opponents. Here’s hoping for better predictions with a full slate of games and no byes in Week 12.
Thanksgiving presents a trio of games right off the bat, with Sunday and Monday providing some interesting closing matchups involving Pennsylvania teams. There are also a couple of massive spreads in favor of the Dolphins and Chiefs.
With all that in mind and without further ado, here’s are Sporting News’ picks against the spread for every NFL Week 12 game.
(Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction)
NFL POWER RANKINGS: Cowboys, Patriots climb ahead of Week 12
NFL picks against the spread for Week 12
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Game of Midweek I: Bills (-9.5, 54 o/u) at Lions
Thursday 12:30 p.m. ET, CBS
The Bills had some experience adjusting to Ford Field. Although Josh Allen continued to slump, they had to be pleased about getting the traditional running game going and also spreading the ball around more effectively in the passing game. The Lions’ young defense has played much better of late and made some big plays, but they struggle to multiple, diverse offenses.
Jared Goff hasn’t played all that well during the Lions’ winning streak and the negative game script will take them out of sticking with the run. Allen has his best game in a month in a complete road rout in a familiar venue.
Pick: Bills win 31-20 and cover the spread.
Result: Bills win 28-25 but fail to cover the spread.
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Game of Midweek II: Giants at Cowboys (-9.5, 44.5 o/u)
Thursday 4:30 p.m. ET, Fox
The Giants aren’t dependent too much on the downfield passing game and will stay patient running Saquon Barkley after he failed to become a real factor against the Lions. Daniel Jones’ rushing supplement also can keep New York in a key division rivalry rematch from a 23-16 Dallas road win in Week 3. Dak Prescott will be playing this time, but the Cowboys haven’t changed their smart run-heavy identity much of late. The number is just a little too big for teams that mostly play each other tight. In the end, it’s advantage Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott with their QB over Barkley and Jones.
Pick: Cowboys win 24-17 but fail to cover the spread.
Result: Cowboys win 28-20 and but fail to cover the spread.
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Game of Midweek III: Patriots at Vikings (-3, 42.5 o/u)
Thursday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
The Vikings’ 8-2 record has come under fire after the Cowboys ripped them 40-3 at home following their improbable road rally over the Bills in Week 10. Kirk Cousins got rattled into nothingness vs. Dallas’ defense. He doesn’t tend to play well in prime time and New England’s defense under Bill Belichick is also concerning. But between Dalvin Cook. Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson, the Vikings have the options to score enough points here as the Patriots’ offense is severely limited with a shaky Mac Jones.
Pick: Vikings win 20-14 and cover the spread.
Result: Vikings win 33-26 and cover the spread.
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Game of the Week: Bengals (-1.5, 43 o/u) at Titans
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Bengals are back to heating up with Joe Burrow and are expected to get top wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase back this week. Cincinnati will have trouble with Derrick Henry on the road, but Burrow having more weapons with which to attack the Titans’ weakness in pass defense is huge. Look for the Bengals to work to get the Titans negative game script and force Ryan Tannehill into a duel with Burrow with lesser weapons. Cincy keeps up the momentum of winning in Nashville in last year’s divisional playoffs.
Pick: Bengals win 24-20 and cover the spread.
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Upset of the Week: Panthers (+2.5, 35 o/u) over Broncos
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Panthers are hoping they can switch up QB (again) for an offensive spark. But their loaded defense has held it down with inspired play under Steve Wllks and that’s not good news for a Broncos’ offense that can’t get out of its own way with Russell Wilson. Nathaniel Hackett is on thin ice and Carolina can cause Denver to further slip on the road even with little scoring.
Pick: Panthers win 13-10.
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Lock of the Week: Seahawks (-3.5, 47.5 o/u) over Raiders
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
The Raiders were able to outlast the listless Broncos in overtime. The Seahawks, coming off a bye, will rip into their weak defense with Kenneth Walker’s explosive running and Geno Smith getting favorable matchups for DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett downfield. Once the Seahawks contain Josh Jacobs on the ground at home, Rookie cornerback Tariq Woolen has the size to contain Derek Carr’s lone source of offense, Davante Adams. This is a terrible short road trip from Las Vegas to Seattle in an old AFC West rivalry.
Pick: Seahawks win 34-22 and cover the spread.
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Buccaneers (-3, 43.5 o/u) at Browns
Sunday.1 p.m. ET, Fox
Tom Brady got hot before the bye and won’t let the Bucs lose a tossup game like this on the road. The Bucs will be fine leaning on the running game to attack the Browns’ biggest weakness and set up favorable downfield passing shots for Brady. Jacoby Brissett will turn in one more gritty efficient outing before giving way to Deshaun Watson, but it won’t be enough opposite a rejuvenated GOAT.
Pick: Buccaneers win 27-20 and cover the spread.
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Texans at Dolphins (-12.5, 46 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Dolphins have a dominant running game whenever needed with Jeff Wilson Jr. and Raheem Mostert. The Texans’ cover-2 looks will attempt to keep Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle from burning them downfield, but much of their damage also can be done in open field after the catch and either wide receiver can simply run past the defense backs. The Texans will try to run to stay in it, but they don’t have enough firepower to hang here.
Pick: Dolphins win 31-17 and cover the spread.
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Bears at Jets (-6, 41.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Justin Fields is on fire but he’s still making key mistakes and the Bears’ defense has them down big-time during a four-game losing streak. Fields is now banged up and facing a nasty defense with a limited offense. Fellow second-year QB Zach Wilson looks like a total bust in comparison, but here he can get real support from the running game and receivers. The Jets put up the necessary points to survive and keep their AFC wild-card hopes from fading further.
Pick: Jets win 20-17 but fail to cover the spread.
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Falcons at Commanders (-3.5, 43 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
This is a bad matchup for the Falcons on the road. They need to run the ball well to win, but the Commanders do stop the run. They have major issues in downfield pass coverage, and that won’t work well vs. Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel. They also cannot stop the run or cover backs, a problem vs. Antonio Gibson. The Commanders’ defense is playing better overall as the team has gotten hot for Taylor Heinicke.
Pick: Commanders win 24-17 and cover the spread.
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Ravens (-4, 44 o/u) at Jaguars
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Ravens didn’t play well offensively against the Panthers. Lamar Jackson wasn’t at full speed with his usual running after the bye and the passing was off in trying to force the ball to limited wide receivers when not targeting Mark Andrews. Baltimore will get back to running effectively while the defense will again frustrate a team vs. run and pass. Jacksonville has more pop than Carolina at home but it won’t be enough.
Pick: Ravens win 27-17 and cover the spread.
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Chargers (-3.5, 47.5 o/u) at Cardinals
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
The Chargers have too much diversity in their passing attack for the Cardinals’ defense to handle, especially with the pass protection rebounding to better support a revving-up Justin Herbert. The Cardinals’ questionable QB situation doesn’t help them with Kyler Murray likely to miss one more game. Colt McCoy can try to keep them in the game vs. the Bolts, but there’s not enough lightning around him and they need more than running James Conner.
Pick: Chargers win 30-20 and cover the spread.
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Rams at Chiefs (-15, 44 o/u)
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
The Rams’ offense keeps breaking down. The constant offensive line injury woes have spilled into the skill players, with Matthew Stafford joining Cooper Kupp on the shelf. Digging deep at QB with shaky protection and no real running game is one problem. So is a defense that seems less motivated and is getting totally ripped all over the field in the passing game, despite having Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. Patrick Mahomes should remember losing that epic shootout to the Rams four seasons ago. He’ll make amends here in an absolute blowout.
Pick: Chiefs win 42-20 and cover the spread.
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Saints at 49ers (-8.5, 42 o/u)
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
The Saints have sprung many leaks against the run. They also can worked over well in the red zone. With their defensive front banged up, it’s not a good development for facing the 49ers’ offensive line. On the other side, the 49ers’ defense can rattle Andy Dalton after containing Alvin Kamara. Christian McCaffrey drives another familiar NFC South foe batty.
Pick: 49ers win 31-17 and cover the spread.
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Packers at Eagles (-7, 45.5 o/u)
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
The Packers have been a bad road team this season. The Eagles, except for that Commanders debacle in Week 10, have been a dominant team in Philadelphia. They got away with more sloppy slow-starting play in Indianapolis and will want to keep the up the late-game momentum with Jalen Hurts. His running and passing will confuse a depleted and undisciplined defense. Aaron Rodgers will get ripped by a tough front once the Eagles’ newcomers help contain the run.
Pick: Eagles win 31-20 and cover the spread.
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Steelers at Colts (-3, 39 o/u)
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Steelers will try to rattle Matt Ryan with T.J. Watt and friends, but the real problem for their defense with the running of a suddenly red-hot Jonathan Taylor. They also will struggle with the size vs quickness combination of Michael Pittman Jr. and Parris Campbell. Kenny Pickett steps into another tough defensive matchup for a rookie and his running and that of Najee Harris will still keep Pittsburgh short on the scoreboard.
Pick: Colts win 23-19 and cover the spread.
Week 11 record straight up: 8-5
Week 11 record against the spread: 5-7
Season record straight up: 97-63
Season record against the spread: 79-79
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