Week 5 in the NFL was rough. There were a lot of games that didn’t go as planned with some key injuries and late scoring to change the team with the right numbers. There’s only one thing to do to improve Sporting News’ picks and predictions against the spread: Get right back into the saddle for Week 6.
The good news is there are two fewer games to get wrong with four teams taking the week off on bye. The bad news, that’s also two fewer games to get right.
Here’s attacking the early lines and looking the glass as half full with the latest fearless forecast of professional pigskin prognostications:
(Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction)
POWER RANKINGS: Cowboys, Jets, Giants all make big jumps for Week 6
NFL picks against the spread for Week 6
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Game of Midweek: Commanders at Bears (TBD, 38.5 o/u)
Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
The Commanders’ defense is terrible against the pass, but the Bears aren’t a passing offense. The Bears’ defense is terrible against the run, but the Commanders aren’t a rushing offense. Washington is struggling to break out of being too reliant on Carson Wentz behind shaky line play. Chicago is starting to trust Justin Fields a little more to throw downfield and that will be the difference.
Pick: Bears win 20-17.
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AFC Game of the Week: Bills (-2, 53.5 o/u) at Chiefs
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Bills built their defense with a deep pass rush to stop Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. They also like to play zone to contain big plays downfield. That won’t be as effective with their secondary injuries. Mahomes’ newfound patience behind a strong offensive line will be important as will be Andy Reid’s willingness to stick with Clyde Edwards-Helaire and other backs running more. Buffalo is rocking with Josh Allen rolling, but it will be more one-dimensional with its usual downfield shots being contained.
Pick: Chiefs win 31-27.
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NFC Game of the Week: Cowboys at Eagles (-5, 42 o/u)
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
The Eagles’ offense is a bit up-and-down with the traditional running and downfield passing game in relation to Jalen Hurts. But Hurts extending plays and spreading the ball around will serve them well here. The Cowboys will have trouble running effectively, which will put either Cooper Rush or Dak Prescott in a tough spot against the Eagles’ pass rush while Darius Slay contains CeeDee Lamb.
Pick: Eagles win 24-17 and cover the spread.
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Lock of the Week: 49ers (-5.5, 43 o/u) over Falcons
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
This Kyle Shanahan revenge game will be another San Francisco blowout in the Southeast against another former NFC West rival in Atlanta. The 49ers have been hit harder with injuries, this time on defense, but they are still loaded offensively to create all-around problems for the Falcons defense as their speed is better suited for the fast track indoors.
Pick: 49ers win 34-17 and cover the spread.
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Upset of the Week: Patriots (+3, 42.5 o/u) over Browns
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
This Bill Belichick revenge game where he started his NFL head-coaching career in Cleveland will show up by the Patriots red-hot defense containing Nick Chubb in the running game knowing the Browns have real limitations with ex-Patriot Jacoby Brissett and the passing game. Whoever the Patriots start at QB will get more great support from Rhamondre Stevenson and the running game.
Pick: Patriots win 23-16.
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Jets at Packers (-7, 46 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Packers go back to having a true home game at Lambeau Field looking to handle a different surprise New York team better this week. The Jets jumped on the injury-riddled Dolphins in New Jersey but Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay is a much different story. Aaron Jones and the Packers will find their rushing success again to take pressure off Rodgers and the defense will communicate better to thwart Zach Wilson.
Pick: Packers 27, Jets 19
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Jaguars at Colts (-2, 42 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
It’s hard to know which Jacksonville or Indianapolis team will show up either offensively or defensively. The Jaguars shut out the Colts 24-0 in Week 2 but are coming off two listless losses to the Eagles and Texans. The Colts have shocked the Chiefs and Broncos. Expect more roller-coast offense from the Jaguars with Trevor Lawrence, while the expected return of Jonathan Taylor will stabilize the Colts’ offense around Matt Ryan.
Pick: Colts 23, Jaguars 20
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Vikings (-3, 45.5 o.u) at Dolphins
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Vikings likely won’t see their former first-rounder starter Teddy Bridgewater and the Dolphins won’t be able to win with a run-heavy offense with wide receivers Tyreek Hill (foot) and Jaylen Waddle (groin) banged up. Also, with Xavier Howard hampered should he play, there are no true Dolphins answers for Justin Jefferson. Dalvin Cook also will stay hot running in his return to his home state.
Pick: Vikings win 24-20 and cover the spread.
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Bengals (-2, 43.5 o/u) at Saints
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Bengals have plenty of Bayou connections, starting with Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. Don’t forget about this being a revenge game for Trey Hendrickson and Vonn Bell. As for Andy Dalton’s revenge game, the Taysom Hill sideshow has become more of the main attraction without a healthy Jameis Winston. Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry have been shelved, and Chris Olave is in line to join them. Dennis Allen will be judicious with the blitz against Burrow, but there are too many versatile weapons for him in the passing game to think New Orleans can catch up.
Pick: Bengals win 31-21 and cover the spread.
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Ravens (-4.5, 44 o/u) at Giants
Sunday.1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Ravens remain limited with their traditional running game, still led on the ground by Lamar Jackson. Jackson’s passing game is back to Mark Andrews-heavy with Rashod Bateman hurting. The Giants’ defense can work with that to slow down Baltimore’s big-play ability. The Ravens’ cornerbacks get a break with the Giants’ depleted receiving corps, but Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley grind their team to stay in another game.
Pick: Ravens win 17-14 but fail to cover the spread.
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Buccaneers (-8, 43.5 o/u) at Steelers
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Buccaneers went too much in cruise control against the Falcons and it almost cost them in the second half. Here Tom Brady will have them keep stepping on the pedal against a defense that cannot stop a red-hot Leonard Fournette or cover any of his talented wide receivers, namely Mike Evans downfield. Kenny Pickett once again gets little support against a swarming run-stopping defense.
Pick: Buccaneers 27, Steelers 17
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Panthers at Rams (-11, 41 o/u)
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
The Panthers’ defense will feel a little extra spark with Steve Wilks taking over as interim coach while the offense opens things up with whoever’s playing QB to complement Christian McCaffrey. The Rams can’t run the ball and hide from Carolina so Matthew Stafford can expect more heat in a contained passing game away from Cooper Kupp.
Pick: Rams win 24-14 but fail to cover the spread.
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Cardinals (-3, 51.5 o/u) at Seahawks
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
The Cardinals are not a good matchup for the Seahawks between whoever’s running the ball to supplement Kyler Murray and they have no real coverage answers for Marquise Brown, Zach Ertz and Rondale Moore. The Seahawks will attack outside for some big pass plays with Geno Smith, but ultimately he will be out-dueled all-around by a confident Murray.
Pick: Cardinals win 31-27 and cover the spread.
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Broncos at Chargers (-5.5, 46.5 o/u)
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Broncos have been battered with injuries and not of that is good for Russell Wilson to break out of his slump or for the defense to keep carrying the heavier winning burden. The Chargers will be able to keep their running game revved up with Austin Ekeler while Justin Herbert hangs in to pick them apart away from Patrick Surtain II.
Pick: Chargers win 27-20 and cover the spread.
Week 5 record straight up: 9-7
Week 5 record against the spread: 5-10
Season record straight up: 47-31
Season record against the spread: 38-41
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