The three-game Thanksgiving slate has more games between winning records than the rest of Week 12.
It’s that kind of week – but it doesn’t mean there will not be some shake-ups. Cincinnati and Tennessee meet in a rematch of last year’s AFC divisional playoff thriller. The Bengals won that game 19-16, and they have the final spot in the AFC playoff picture heading into Week 12. This is a chance to gain ground, but the Titans have been hot since the bye week. Expect another close game.
That is the only game between teams with winning records on Sunday or Monday.
What else is on the schedule? Kansas City is a huge favorite against the Rams, the Eagles take on the Packers on Sunday Night Football and the Steelers and Colts meet on Monday Night Football in a matchup of disappointing teams. There still is room for a few unexpected upsets in our Week 12 picks.
A look at our track record this season: 95-67-1
Here are our straight-up picks for Week 12 (lines courtesy of BetMGM):
NFL POWER RANKINGS: Cowboys, Patriots climb ahead of Week 12
NFL picks, predictions for Week 12
- Denver Broncos (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, 1 p.m., FOX
A pair of three-win teams will be searching for offense. The Broncos have scored more than 20 points in just two games this season. The Panthers are 3-3 at home. This is a toss-up, but Baker Mayfield leads a game-winning drive in another brutal loss for Denver.
Pick: Panthers 20, Broncos 18
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, 1 p.m., FOX
This is the last game in Deshaun Watson’s 12-game suspension, but the Browns are just looking to salvage anything from a lost season at this point. This is Tom Brady’s fourth career start at Cleveland, and the only loss came back in 2010. Tampa Bay comes out of the bye week focused, and the Browns lose their third one-score game at home.
Pick: Buccaneers 27, Browns 23
- Baltimore Ravens (-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Ravens have the AFC North lead, and this is a trap game at Jacksonville, which is coming off a much-needed bye week. Jacksonville is 2-2 at home this season, so don’t be surprised if the Jaguars lead at halftime before Lamar Jackson leads a come-back victory. Baltimore wins its fifth straight game.
Pick: Ravens 28, Jaguars 25
- Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (-12)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
This is another huge spread, but the Texans have scored 17 points or less in their last four losses. That means a huge spread on the road against Miami, which has won four straight since Tua Tagovailoa returned from a concussion. Tagovailoa is completing 72.2% of his passes with 10 TDs and no interceptions in that winning streak.
Pick: Dolphins 33, Texans 16
- Chicago Bears at New York Jets (-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m., FOX
The Jets are trying to stick in the AFC playoff hunt, and the Bears are trying to break a four-game losing streak. Chicago has allowed 35.5 points per game in that skid. If New York cannot get on track here, then they don’t deserve to be in the playoff hunt.
Pick: Jets 28, Bears 24
- Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
This should be the best game of the week. The key for the Bengals will be keeping that running game going with Joe Mixon (concussion) likely out. Samaje Perine is coming off a three-TD game. The Titans will stick with Derrick Henry, and Ryan Tannehill is coming off his best game of the season. Tennessee has given up 20 points or less in five straight games since the bye week. Joe Burrow clears that total with a game-winning drive in crunch time.
Pick: Bengals 27, Titans 24
- Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., FOX
This is a matchup between two overachievers that have worked into the playoff conversation. Washington has quietly won five of its last six games, and Atlanta is 1-4 on the road this season. The Commanders keep it rolling. Will Chase Young make his season debut?
Pick: Commanders 27, Falcons 20
- Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., CBS
The Chargers could not finish against the Chiefs, but Justin Herbert has a healthy group of receivers. That should be more than enough against Arizona, which is coming off a short week. Will Kyler Murray (hamstring) back back? Without him, it’s tough to picture a Cardinals’ victory here.
Pick: Chargers 30, Cardinals 24
- Las Vegas Raiders at Seattle Seahawks (-4)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., CBS
The Seahawks had a bye week to bounce back from the loss to Tampa Bay in Germany, which should help against the Raiders – who built some momentum with their first road victory of the season against the Broncos. There is a chance for an upset here, but we’ll take Pete Carroll coming off a bye week. Seattle has lost coming out of the bye week the last two seasons. We might regret this later.
Pick: Raiders 24, Seahawks 23
- Los Angeles Rams at Kansas City Chiefs (-14.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., FOX
That spread makes it difficult to believe this is a matchup between two of the last three Super Bowl winners. The Chiefs are healthy, and Patrick Mahomes II has passed for 300 or more yards in five straight games. The Rams fight in a desperate spot, but it’s not enough at Arrowhead Stadium.
Pick: Chiefs 31, Rams 17
- New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers (-8.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., FOX
The 49ers are building momentum toward a playoff run, and the Saints are just 2-5 ATS as an underdog. New Orleans also has not won on the road since Week 1. That is not a recipe for success against San Francisco, which has five of its last seven games at home.
Pick: 49ers 31, Saints 20
- Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-7)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC
Both teams have struggled getting off the field on third down in the last three games. The Packers (46.2%) have struggled more than the Eagles (42.2%) and a stop–and-start offense on the road is not the recipe for victory. Aaron Rodgers’ woes continue in a third straight prime-time loss that knocks Green Bay out of the playoff picture.
Pick: Eagles 30, Packers 21
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (-2)
Monday, 8:15 p.m., ESPN
The Colts and interim coach Jeff Saturday are going to feed Jonathan Taylor 20-plus carries against a top-10 Steelers rush defense. T.J. Watt will be a force on defense, and the Steelers will give Kenny Pickett enough support in the running game to pull out an ugly road victory.
Pick: Steelers 23, Colts 19
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