The NFL’s unpredictable first three weeks is almost predictable at this point. Through three weeks, favorites are 28-17-1, and that included a 7-8 mark in Week 3. Underdogs such as the Colts and Jaguars threw off those plans for heavy favorites.
Week 4 could offer more unpredictable finishes starting with the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Dolphins and Bengals. Miami is off to a 3-0 start, but they have won S/U as an underdog in two of those matchups. Could coach Mike McDaniel get off to a 4-0 start?
Buffalo meets Baltimore in a matchup between teams that average more than 30 points per game. The Ravens are a first-time underdog this season, and they are at home. That is a tough pick.
The Buccaneers also are an underdog at home in the Sunday Night Football matchup against the Chiefs. Will Tom Brady get the Buccaneers’ offense going? Or will the Chiefs get back on track? It has made for some tough picks straight up, but that is part of the fun.
Each week, Sporting News will pick all the NFL games straight up and against the spread. A look at our track record this season:
Record: 25-22-1 (8-8 in Week 3)
Here are our straight-up picks for Week 4 (lines courtesy of Caesars):
POWER RANKINGS: Dolphins overtake Bills; Packers, Jaguars jump up
NFL picks, predictions for Week 4
- Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m., Prime Video
Former college rivals Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa meet, and the Dolphins will try to cover as an underdog for the third consecutive week. Cincinnati protected Burrow better in Week 3, and that combined with the Dolphins’ inability to generate a consistent running game will be the difference. Even in a short week, we’re taking the Bengals at home.
Pick: Bengals 27, Dolphins 23
- Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) vs. New Orleans
Sunday, 9:30 a.m., NFL Network
Early-morning football in London is back. Saints quarterback Jameis Winston is struggling with interceptions, and Za’Darius Smith should be able to pressure Winston into at least one of those. The health of Dalvin Cook (shoulder) is a concern. Minnesota can’t throw 40 times with Kirk Cousins every week.
Pick: Vikings 24, Saints 20
- Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
Jacoby Brissett is getting the job done for the Browns. He’s averaging 198.7 yards per game with just one interception around a ground-heavy attack with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. The Falcons rank 15th in the NFL in rush defense, and Marcus Mariota – who also has done well – makes one more mistake than Brissett. Cleveland improves to 3-1 in another dramatic finish.
Pick: Browns 27, Falcons 24
- Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m., FOX
Dallas is trying to tread in the NFC East standings while waiting for Dak Prescott’s returns, and they will get after Washington quarterback Carson Wentz, who was sacked nine times in Week 3. Wentz has split eight starts against the Cowboys, but he has 14 TDs and four interceptions in those games. Dallas won the last meeting at Jerry World 56-14. This one will be much closer – and uglier on both sides.
Pick: Cowboys 23, Commanders 19
- Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m., FOX
This line has moved up to 3.5 points in some books, and the winner will get back to .500. The Titans have won the last three meetings, and they were able to limit Jonathan Taylor to an average of 67 rushing yards in last year’s game. It’s on the Colts to respond at home. We are going to pick the small upset from Tennessee.
Pick: Titans 27, Colts 24
- Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-6.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., FOX
Detroit is a favorite for the first time in 20 games under Dan Campbell, which is a testament to the improvement, even if Detroit remains a work-in-progress. The Lions average 31.7 points per game – and that simply is too much for a Seahawks’ team that is at 15.7 points per game with Geno Smith at quarterback.
Pick: Lions 30, Seahawks 22
- Chicago Bears at New York Giants (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m., FOX
The Giants are coming off a short week, and the Bears, for all their flaws, have allowed just 19 points per game with new coach Matt Eberflus. That is a formula that will keep them in games, and Justin Fields leads a well-timed drive in the clutch. The Bears improve to 3-1 in the process.
Pick: Bears 19, Giants 18
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
Who knew Jalen Hurts vs. Trevor Lawrence would be one of the best QB matchups of this season? It’s a reunion game for Doug Pederson, and the Jaguars have blown out AFC preseason contenders in back-to-back weeks. We’re going to stick with the Eagles in one of the more exciting games of Week 4.
Pick: Eagles 31, Jaguars 28
- New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
Who will the quarterbacks be? Zach Wilson is nearing a return for the Jets; otherwise Joe Flacco will get a throwback-shot at the Steelers. Pittsburgh fans are playing the waiting game for first-round pick Kenny Pickett, and a loss here would move that timeline up. The Steelers get the job done at home, but the clamoring won’t stop.
Pick: Steelers 28, Jets 22
- Buffalo Bills (-3.5) at Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Ravens are not going to want to hear about injuries in the secondary. That is what doomed them in 2021. As it stands, you get Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen in an early window with elite top-five offense. Both teams were in a close-game situation in losses to Miami. Which teams learned their lesson?
Pick: Bills 34, Ravens 30
- Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) at Houston Texans
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
Justin Herbert’s health shouldn’t be a discussion this week, but there are other injuries for Los Angeles to worry about. Houston’s low-powered offense ranks 26th in the league in scoring, and this is a get-well game for the Chargers at the right time. At least it better be.
Pick: Chargers 29, Texans 17
- Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-1)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., FOX
The Cardinals are making that cross-country flight, and former Oklahoma Heisman Trophy winners Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield will meet for the second time. The Panthers are 1-7 S/U and 1-7 ATS as a home favorite under Matt Rhule. Arizona can pull this off if Murray isn’t loose with the football.
Pick: Cardinals 28, Panthers 22
- Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (-2)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
The Raiders are the lone 0-3 team in the NFL, and they are still favored against a Denver team that just hasn’t found the mesh point with new coach Nathaniel Hackett and quarterback Russell Wilson but is still 2-1. It’s desperation time for Las Vegas, and they finally win a one-score game.
Pick: Raiders 23, Broncos 20
- New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers (-10.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
Mac Jones (ankle) status is in question, which means Brian Hoyer would be up at Lambeau Field against a tough Packers’ defense that ranks sixth in scoring defense through three weeks. The spread is way too high given Green Bay’s offensive struggles and how Bill Belichick can exploit some of those. Rodgers, however, makes enough plays at home – where he is 23-2 in the regular season since Matt LaFleur took over.
Pick: Packers 24, Patriots 15
- Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC
They have tried to pass the torch from Tom Brady to Patrick Mahomes III a few times, but Brady simply won’t retire. The Buccaneers get Mike Evans back, but it’s going to take more than the season average of 17 points per game to hang with the Chiefs, who will bounce back from a hiccup against the Colts in Week 3. Mahomes will not let Brady get the chance for a game-winning drive.
Pick: Chiefs 28, Buccaneers 23
- Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m., Monday
This line flipped in the 49ers’ favor from its open, which is curious given how the offense looked with Jimmy Garoppolo in the loss to the Broncos. Yes, Kyle Shanahan is 7-3 head-to-head against Sean McVay in the regular season. The Rams are still the better team right now.
Pick: Rams 24, 49ers 21
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