Philadelphia, Buffalo and Kansas City are considered the Super Bowl favorites as the NFL season hits the midpoint.
All three teams are double-digit favorites heading into Week 9.
Philadelphia opens the action on Thursday night against the Texans. That’s not a glamorous game, but it’s a chance to watch Jalen Hurts continue his MVP-caliber season for the undefeated Eagles. Hurts, a Houston native, should be in top form against the Texans with favorite target A.J. Brown.
Buffalo also is a heavy road favorite against the Jets. Josh Allen also is in the MVP mix, and favorite target Stefon Diggs is tied for the NFL lead with seven TD receptions. The matchup against rookie cornerback Sauce Gardner should be fun, too.
Kansas City also is in the mix, and is a double-digit favorite against the Titans. Patrick Mahomes II had a bye week to prepare, and the Titans are heating up with Derrick Henry, who is coming off a 219-yard effort in Week 8.
Those are the highlights of the Week 9 schedule. With six teams on a bye week, there are just 13 games. A look at our track record this season:
Record: 68-53-1
Here are our straight-up picks for Week 9 (lines courtesy of Caesars):
POWER RANKINGS: 49ers, Seahawks surge as NFC contenders; Raiders, Steelers flirt with worst for Week 9
NFL picks, predictions for Week 9
- Philadelphia Eagles (-13) at Houston Texans
Thursday, 8:15 p.m., Prime Video
That is a huge spread for a Thursday Night Football game, even for the Eagles, who are 5-2 ATS and have allowed more than 20 points just twice this season. Philadelphia also has just two turnovers this season, and Jalen Hurts will continue the connection with A.J. Brown, and the Eagles keep rolling in the NFC.
Pick: Eagles 31, Texans 17
- Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, 1 p.m., FOX
The Chargers are a road favorite despite the cross-country flight, and they better be careful against the Falcons. Atlanta is 3-1 S/U at home, and this team is 3-3 in one-score games. That said, Justin Herbert has a 102.7 QB rating with six TDs and one interception on the road, and the Chargers had a bye week. This will be one of the more entertaining games in the early window. Atlanta starts to believe it’s a playoff team here.
Pick: Falcons 28, Chargers 25
- Miami Dolphins (-4.5) at Chicago Bears
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
Justin Fields has shown improvement within Chicago’s offense the last two weeks, but he’s taking too many sacks. Chicago’s defense was ripped on the ground last week against Dallas, and that means Raheem Mostert could have a huge game here. That will open up the vertical shots from Tua Tagovailoa to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Miami also is 4-1 at Chicago all time. Forget about those weather narratives.
Pick: Dolphins 30, Bears 20
- Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals (-9)
Sunday, 1 p.m., FOX
Here is another line that has moved up. Cincinnati has a short week, but Joe Burrow averages 384 passing yards with five TDs and no interceptions in his last two home starts. Carolina can slow the game down in the first half with D’Onta Foreman, but Cincinnati will pull away in the second half.
Pick: Bengals 31, Panthers 21
- Green Bay Packers (-3) at Detroit Lions
Sunday, 1 p.m., FOX
Perhaps no two teams are more desperate for a win this season. These are bad run defenses. Detroit (154.9) ranks 30th; one spot behind the Packers (141.3). The Lions have an offense that could push Green Bay to a fifth straight loss, but the Packers showed some signs of life on that side in the second-half of the Week 8 loss to the Bills. This is a close one, but the Packers pull out the victory.
Pick: Packers 28, Lions 25
- Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-5.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Colts are one of this year’s surprising disasters, and they have averaged 10.5 points per game on the road this season. That won’t cut it against New England, who has re-settled at quarterback with Mac Jones. Sam Ehlinger will show signs of progress, but it won’t be enough to win in Foxborough.
Pick: Patriots 25, Colts 17
- Buffalo Bills (-13) at New York Jets
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Bills are heavy road favorites against the Jets, who have double-digit losses at home to AFC playoff contenders Baltimore and Cincinnati. The bad news? Buffalo is 2-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season, and Allen has won his last four starts against New York. The Bills continue their impressive season.
Pick: Bills 34, Jets 18
- Washington Commanders at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., FOX
The Commanders have shown fight with Taylor Heinicke under center, and that includes two road victories in the last three weeks against NFC North opponents. The Vikings have limited their last three opponents to 76.3 rushing yards, and Dalvin Cook is warming up. Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson help Minnesota extend its commanding lead in the NFC North.
Pick: Vikings 24, Commanders 20
- Las Vegas Raiders (-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
This is a matchup of two-win teams, and the Raiders are 0-4 S/U on the road this season. That would appear to be an opportunity for the Jaguars to win at home, but how will they respond after losing in London? Trevor Lawrence has a 73.9 rating at home. Derek Carr has a 79.9 rating on the road. It’s a coin flip, but the Jaguars win on a late field.
Pick: Jaguars 24, Raiders 23
- Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+2)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., FOX
The Seahawks beat the Cardinals 19-9 in Week 6, and Arizona is in desperation mode at 3-5. Seattle is 2-2 on the road, but the emergence of Kenneth Walker III, who has scored TDs in four straight games, continues to be a difference maker. Seattle is a low-risk underdog as a result.
Pick: Seahawks 26, Cardinals 25
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) at Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
This is the most-difficult game to pick this week. Both teams have lost three of their last four games, and the loser will fall even further down the NFC playoff standings. Cooper Kupp is dealing with an ankle injury, and that won’t help Matthew Stafford. Does Tom Brady finally break the Bucs out of their slump?
Pick: Buccaneers 27, Rams 21
- Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-11)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC
Ryan Tannehill should have time to return for this game, and the Titans are going to have to be more than Derrick Henry in this matchup. Kansas City is tough at home, but three games at Arrowhead Stadium have been decided by a combined total of eight points this season. Patrick Mahomes II is 1-2 against the Titans, and that includes the AFC championship victory in 2020. This game will feel like that in the second half. The line is still too high.
Pick: Chiefs 31, Titans 22
- Baltimore Ravens (-3) at New Orleans Saints
Monday, 8:15 p.m., ESPN
This line has stuck so far, and the Ravens are on the road against a NFC South team in prime time. The Saints are 2-2 S/U at home this season, but those losses were by an average of seven points to the Buccaneers and Bengals. The Ravens have played in five straight one-score games, but they are 3-2 S/U on the road. Lamar Jackson stays hot and limits the mistakes, and we get another game-winning field goal from Justin Tucker late.
Pick: Ravens 28, Saints 23
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