It seems unfair that a team could go from a chance at the No. 1 seed in Week 18 to falling all the way to No. 5 or 6 with a loss, but the NFL insists on giving division champs the top four seeds regardless of record.
That gives even more weight to the Seattle Seahawks-San Francisco 49ers matchup.
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The winner of that game will be the NFC’s No. 1 seed. The Seahawks will be the No. 5 seed if they lose. If the 49ers lose, they will be either the No. 5 or No. 6 seed. The Rams get the fifth seed — which is important because that team will face a weak NFC South champion — with a 49ers loss and a win over the Cardinals in the finale.
Sam Darnold knows the drill. Last season, when he was with the Minnesota Vikings, his team was 14-2 before the finale, lost to the Lions and fell to the No. 5 seed. Minnesota then lost to the Rams in its playoff opener. The difference between getting a bye and having to play a road game on wild-card weekend is massive and it’s rare we see a single game have those type of stakes. That makes Saturday night’s game one of the bigger regular-season games you’ll find, in terms of what’s at stake.
(Yahoo Sports/Taylor Wilhelm)
That game is the most important in Week 18. But a few other games matter too. Here are the games with the biggest impact on the playoff picture:
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Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Weirdly, this Saturday game might not matter at all, but we won’t know until Sunday. The Falcons’ win on Monday night was bad for the Buccaneers and it changed this game from being a winner-take-all matchup. If the Panthers win, they’re NFC South champions. If the Buccaneers win, they wait. If the Falcons beat the Saints on Sunday, the Panthers are the NFC South champs no matter who wins Saturday. Why? Because the Buccaneers would win a two-team tiebreaker against the Panthers, but the Panthers win a three-team tiebreaker if the Falcons are included. The Buccaneers, Panthers and Falcons can all finish 8-9.
There will be some drama on Saturday in Tampa Bay. But we might wait another day to see who wins the NFC South.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Ravens-Steelers matchup has clear implications: The winner is the AFC North champion and the No. 4 seed, and the loser is eliminated. That’s perfect for a regular-season finale on Sunday night.
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The Ravens are still alive because they upset the Packers in Week 17 and the Steelers were upset by the Browns. The Ravens are waiting to see if Lamar Jackson can play in the finale. Aaron Rodgers, who hinted during the summer that he would retire after this season, could be playing his final NFL game.
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Titans have been playing better in the second half of the season, but they’re still big underdogs at Jacksonville. If the Jaguars win, they’re AFC South champions. If they lose, the Texans take the division by beating the Colts. The Texans should be motivated regardless; a win gets them the No. 5 seed at worst, and that would be a matchup against an AFC North champion who will be the weakest of the four division winners.
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
The Broncos caught a break when the Chargers lost in Week 17. Instead of playing the Chargers for the AFC West title on Sunday, Denver has already clinched the division and the Chargers are very likely to get the No. 7 seed. With little to play for the Chargers announced that Justin Herbert will rest this week, and presumably other starters will join him. That means all Denver has to do to get the AFC’s No. 1 seed is beat an unmotivated Chargers team playing backups.
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Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
There’s not a ton of seeding intrigue in the NFC other than the NFC West teams. The Rams will know by Sunday if they have a shot at the No. 5 seed. The Packers are already locked into the No. 7 seed, and the NFC South winner will be the No. 4 seed.
The Bears could make it easy for the No. 2 and 3 seeds. If Chicago beats an eliminated Lions team, they’re the No. 2 seed and will get a third matchup against the Packers (who could decide to rest starters in Week 18) on wild-card weekend. If the Bears lose, the Eagles can move up to No. 2 with a win over the Commanders.
