NFL predictions 2022: Projecting teams with best odds to make playoffs, win Super Bowl 57

Fans have waited through a hectic offseason full of major trades and signings. On Thursday, the waiting is over. The 2022 NFL season will arrive.

Last year delivered on a thrilling season, capped off with a surprising Super Bowl between the Rams and Bengals, ending with the Rams capturing their first title since Super Bowl 34. The race now is on for who will be the next Super Bowl champion. 

The Sporting News is unveiling a model to project the 2022 NFL season and make predictions based on the results. The model creates ratings for each team’s offense and defense based on past performances and offseason moves, including trades, free agent signings and draft picks, and uses those ratings as a way of determining who will win in each matchup.

Each game is then simulated 20,000 times all the way through the Super Bowl, accounting for home-field advantage. The results of each simulation are tallied together to create the most likely outcomes of the divisions, playoffs and Super Bowl. The predicted standings for each team are the average wins and losses in the simulations.

MORE: Why Packers are Sporting News’ pick to win Super Bowl 57

Keep in mind, all the numbers are rounded up to the nearest whole number or percentage. A team having a 100 percent chance to miss the playoffs might be closer to 99.99%, but the odds are very small.

Here is how The Sporting News’ model sees the 2022 NFL season unfolding.

NFL predictions 2022

AFC East

1. Bills (12-5)
2. Patriots (9-8)
3. Dolphins (9-8)
4. Jets (4-13)

There is no division with a more clear frontrunner in the NFL. In only 19 percent of simulations did the Bills not win the AFC East. Buffalo led the AFC in both points scored and fewest points allowed. And even though it lost in the divisional round of the playoffs last year, there was no reason to think they were just lucky during the regular season. They return one of the best quarterback-receiver pairings in Josh Allen to Stefon Diggs, and Gabriel Davis started to explode late in the season. A defense that already featured Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer added Von Miller to bolster the pass-rush with Ed Oliver and Gregory Rousseau. This is the most well-rounded teams in the NFL, and the sky is the limit.

Like the Bills, the Patriots were also among the best teams in the NFL on both sides of the ball last year. They scored the sixth-most points in the NFL and allowed the second-fewest. Bill Belichick always seems to work up some magic. The model isn’t overly fond of New England’s offense in 2022, however, with Mac Jones grading out as an average quarterback and a lack of star talent among the receivers. But the defense should still be solid, even after losing J.C. Jackson, and New England should remain in the playoff hunt.

The rest of the division is where the model starts to look a bit more surprising. Odds aren’t overly high on the Dolphins despite the major offensive improvements despite adding Tyreek Hill, Terron Armstead and Chase Edmonds. The offense is getting hit a bit for a lack of trust in Tua Tagovailoa to improve in his third season and fully utilize those weapons. Still, this is an offense that has plenty of potential, and could still make a run at the playoffs, with the model giving them a 27 percent chance to earn a wild card.

Another surprise, the Jets are much lower in playoff odds than one might think. The model gives New York less than a 1 percent chance to reach the postseason, due in large part to the fact that it is the clear worst team in the division. Still, there are reasons enough to be excited for the Jets in 2022. Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall give Zach Wilson two more weapons at his disposal, and Elijah Moore showed he can be a top guy. Wilson’s first season in the league wasn’t great, but his high draft selection means the model isn’t ready to project him as terrible just yet. But it certainly doesn’t count on him turning things all the way around just yet.

Team	Win Division	Wild card	No. 1 seed	Miss playoffs
Bills	81%	14%	41%	5%
Patriots	12%	36%	3%	52%
Dolphins	7%	27%	2%	66%
Jets	0%	0%	0%	100%

 

AFC North

1. Ravens (11-6)
2. Bengals (10-7)
3. Browns (8-9)
4. Steelers (6-11)

Another team goes worst to first. It will be a bit of a different story for the Ravens than it was for the Bengals, as it was largely due to injuries for Baltimore in 2021 that held them back to finishing 8-9 and tying with the Browns for last in the AFC North. But with J.K. Dobbins back and Lamar Jackson entering the year healthy, the rushing attack will be back in force, and some signings and draft picks helped improve an already impressive defense. The big question heading into the season is exactly to who, outside of Mark Andrews, Jackson will throw the ball. Marquise Brown is a big loss, and there is no guarantee Rashod Bateman is going to be ready to step into that No. 1 receiver role. But, health permitting, this team should be improved in 2022 overall, and now benefits from a last-place schedule.

There wasn’t a bigger surprise in the NFL in 2021 than the Bengals, who went from 4-11-1 to 10-7 and winning the AFC North and, eventually, the AFC. There’s no reason to expect them to be flukes either. Joe Burrow had a standout 2021 season, and the receiving trio of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd is arguably the best in the NFL. Cincinnati made improvements to its offensive line, and this young team gained a year of experience. The defense is only slightly better than the league average, however, and the schedule, particularly in the back-half of the season, is brutal, which drops their odds a bit. Still, if they can reach the playoffs, this team is one of the highest graded in the AFC.

The Browns’ roster is loaded with talent. Few teams have a trio of defenders like Myles Garrett, Jadeveon Clowney and Denzel Ward. No team has a better running back room than Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson. The offensive line is still one of the best. But Jacoby Brissett is not going to win games for Cleveland. He’s a bottom-tier quarterback, who is just being asked to fill in for 11 games until Deshaun Watson returns. The simulations where Cleveland reaches the playoffs sees the team leaning on its defense in low-scoring games before the offense picks up with Watson. But that’s a long time to have to wait in this division and in this conference.

The Steelers made one final run with Ben Roethlisberger to the playoffs in 2021. Pittsburgh already faced questions at quarterback before he retired as his performance began to rapidly decline, but led now by Mitchell Trubisky, the offense really takes a tumble. Still, it’s possible to see a path to the playoffs for Pittsburgh. Its receiving corps is matched in the division only by Cincinnati, and Najee Harris has the potential to carry a heavy load at running back. The defensive line with T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward should continue to wreak havoc, and Minkah Fitzpatrick is one of the best safeties out there. But the depth in this division and a second-place schedule brings too many challenges for the model to see many scenarios in which Mike Tomlin miraculously leads this team to the playoffs.

Team	Division Winner	Wild card	No. 1 seed	Miss playoffs
Ravens	50%	25%	10%	25%
Bengals	42%	28%	9%	30%
Browns	6%	12%	0%	81%
Steelers	2%	3%	0%	95%

 

AFC South

1. Colts (10-7)
2. Titans (9-8)
3. Jaguars (5-12)
4. Texans (5-12)

The addition of Matt Ryan might not seem like a huge deal, but it clearly makes a world of difference for the Colts. Ryan is no longer the former MVP he was back in 2016, but he remains in the upper-half of the league for quarterback play, and he’ll have his best supporting cast that he’s had in several years. That cast is led by star running back Jonathan Taylor, who looks every part the top rusher in the league for another season, top receiver Michael Pittman Jr. and a much improved offensive line compared to that of the Falcons. The defense was decent in 2021, and should be improved heading into the 2022 season. This division is the most wide-open in the league, and it looks like the Colts are the most likely to take advantage of that.

The Titans were the No. 1 seed in the AFC a year ago, but had a disappointing exit to the Bengals in the divisional round of the playoffs. At the draft, it made the decision to trade top receiver A.J. Brown to the Eagles and draft Treylon Burks to fill that top spot and signed Robert Woods. This is an offense that still has Derrick Henry at running back and it signed Austin Hooper to be its top pass-catching tight end, but there are some major questions on offense. The defense could still be solid in 2022, led by Jeffery Simmons, Kevin Byard and Amani Hooker, but it would be a major surprise if they repeat as the top seed in the AFC.

One of the more popular sleeper picks in the AFC, the Jaguars endured a brutal 2021 season, marred by a coach constantly in the headlines for all the wrong reasons and a dismal supporting cast around first overall selection Trevor Lawrence. Coached now by Super Bowl-winning coach Doug Pederson, there is more reason for optimism. Despite some at-times questionable spending decisions, the roster is much improved, with receivers Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram coming over to catch passes from Lawrence, and Travis Etienne will be healthy to give them a potent one-two punch at running back with James Robinson, not to mention several big signings on the defensive side of the ball. Don’t expect Lawrence to all of a sudden be a superstar, but this could be a team that surprises in 2022.

The Texans had a little win of the offseason in unloading Watson, but there isn’t much reason to think this is going to be anything but a rebuilding year in Houston. Davis Mills might have been a pleasant surprise, but he’s no star quarterback, and Brandin Cooks is about the only notable weapon Houston brings to the offense. The defense might not be awful, as M.J. Stewart, Tavierre Thomas and Jonathan Greenard were bright spots in 2021, but Houston could also find that its defense spends a lot of time on the field given the inadequacies of the offense. The best 2022 for Houston might mean that it is in a position to draft C.J. Stroud or Bryce Young in 2023.

Team	Division Winner	Wild card	No. 1 seed	Miss playoffs
Colts	60%	11%	6%	29%
Titans	39%	15%	3%	47%
Jaguars	1%	1%	0%	99%
Texans	0%	0%	0%	100%

 

AFC West

1. Chargers (11-6)
2. Chiefs (10-7)
3. Broncos (10-7)
4. Raiders (8-9)

The best division in the NFL is currently projected to be led by the team that made the most improvements to its roster in the past offseason. The Chargers were already one of the best offenses in the league, led by Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams, but this offseason was about improving the defense. There were no splashier moves on that side of the ball than trading for Khalil Mack and signing J.C. Jackson and Kyle Van Noy, complementing a defense that already featured Joey Bosa and Derwin James. This defense likely won’t be one of the very best in the league, and depth is a question, but the talent now on that side of the ball looks like it’s more than good enough to uphold its end of the bargain and get Herbert and this explosive offense to the postseason.

It’s strange to see the Chiefs not favored to win the division after seven straight titles, but that’s what happens when Tyreek Hill is replaced by a hodgepodge of different receiving options. Patrick Mahomes is still Patrick Mahomes, and Travis Kelce is one of the best targets in the league, but the offense will undoubtedly take a hit without Mahomes’ top scramble-drill target. Still, Kansas City’s defense has made strides in recent years and should still be solid in 2022, and this offense still has more than enough to hang with any team in the league. But winning the AFC West will certainly be the toughest challenge for the Chiefs in the Mahomes era.

Yet another reason why an eighth straight title won’t be easy for Kansas City, the Broncos have real worst-to-first-type chances after they acquired Russell Wilson from the Seahawks. The weapons in Denver were already potent in Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton and Javonte Williams, but going from Drew Lock to Wilson is the most notable quarterback upgrade in the league. Complementing that offense is a defense that allowed the third-fewest points in the league a season ago and that returns star talents Justin Simmons and Patrick Surtain, and added Randy Gregory and D.J. Jones during the offseason. Expect Denver to be one of the most unsurprising breakout teams in the league.

It takes a seriously loaded division for the addition of Davante Adams to be seen as not making enough of an impact. But that’s the case with the Raiders. They acquired the best wide receiver in the league to give Derek Carr a group of receivers that now includes Adams, Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller. But with the Broncos adding Wilson, Carr is now the worst QB in the division — admittedly, most of the league’s quarterbacks who would be the worst in this division — and despite signing Chandler Jones, the defense still has some question marks, particularly in the defensive backfield. It would surprise no one to see them reach the playoffs, but this is a brutal division and they face a second-place schedule, which really hampers their postseason hopes.

Team	Division Winner	Wild card	No. 1 seed	Miss playoffs
Chargers	42%	35%	12%	23%
Chiefs	31%	37%	9%	32%
Broncos	22%	38%	4%	41%
Raiders	5%	18%	1%	77%

MORE NFL 2022 PREVIEW:

NFC East

1. Cowboys (11-6)
2. Eagles (11-6)
3. Commanders (8-9)
4. Giants (6-11)

The Cowboys have won the NFC East for two straight years, and even after trading Amari Cooper, the model expects Dallas to stay at the top. Dallas scored more points than any team in the NFL a season ago, and they bring back much of that cast. Dak Prescott returned in dynamic fashion from a major ankle injury, and found a strong connection with CeeDee Lamb, who is emerging as one of the best receivers in the NFL. Dallas still has a strong running back room with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, and Dalton Schultz is one of the better pass-catching tight ends in the league. The defense should still be strong again, particularly with Micah Parsons coming in with Defensive Player of the Year aspirations.

Last season, the Eagles started to see some of the upside with Jalen Hurts at quarterback, and he’s back for another full season to lead the team on offense. Philadelphia is continuing to surround him with weapons, adding A.J. Brown to join Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert to put some real star power in the receiving corps. The model gives them a promising offensive grade given those additions, but the defense still has some questions. Former Bulldogs Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean will need to help on that side of the ball, particularly as it prepares for a rigorous schedule. The model still likes this team enough to see them as almost certainly returning to the playoffs, and this year, threatening for the NFC East crown.

One of the more modest quarterback upgrades, the Commanders went from Taylor Heinicke under center in 2021 to Carson Wentz now in 2022. Wentz is certainly not a world-beating quarterback, but the move is still viewed by the model as a step in the right direction, hence the improved performance in 2022. But for this team to really succeed, it will have to get more out of its defense. Jonathan Allen, Chase Young and Montez Sweat have the potential to make one of the most defensive lines in the league, but they need to show proof of concept first. Washington could be a fringe playoff contender if the connection between Wentz and Terry McLaurin works and the defense improves, but that could still be a tall task.

Maybe one of the biggest surprises of the model is that the Giants have even a 1 percent chance of winning the division. A lot has to go right for New York to win the East, including a major turnaround from Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley. The draft provides perhaps the biggest reason for optimism with selections of Evan Neal nad Kayvon Thibodeaux. Xavier McKinney and Adoree Jackson are a solid defensive backfield pairing and maybe Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton can play better. But with Jones on the final year of his deal, they might be joining the Texans in the race for Stroud or Young in 2023.

Team	Division Winner	Wild card	No. 1 seed	Miss playoffs
Cowboys	57%	29%	17%	15%
Eagles	39%	36%	10%	25%
Commanders	4%	13%	0%	83%
Giants	1%	2%	0%	97%

 

NFC North

1. Packers (11-6)
2. Vikings (10-7)
3. Lions (7-10)
4. Bears (4-12)

The narrative this offseason around Green Bay has not been overly positive. The Packers traded away Adams and watched Marquez Valdes-Scantling walk in free agency to join the Chiefs. If Aaron Rodgers is going to win a third straight MVP and avoid another disappointing early playoff exit, he will need Sammy Watkins and Allen Lazard to step up, and for rookies Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson to be explosive. Running backs Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon should help provide some reliability. Why, with so much uncertainty on offense, are the Packers still the favorites? The defense. With Jaire Alexander, De’Vondre Campbell, Rashan Gary and Rasul Douglas, among others, this defense is loaded with star talent and depth that make it one of the best in the NFL. That defense could be leaned upon quite a lot, particularly when it faces off against the team expected to finish runner-up in the division.

The Vikings are almost the anti-Packers. They don’t have a risk-taking, dynamic quarterback. They have risk-averse, conservative Kirk Cousins. The receiving room isn’t uncertain. It’s loaded, with Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen making up one of the best one-two punches at receiver. The defense isn’t stacked with stars. It’s instead relying on Harrison Phillips, Danielle Hunter and Dalvin Tomlinson to cause a lot of havoc in the trenches and avoid teams testing the questionable secondary. But the model can’t overlook the weapons of Jefferson, Thielen and running back Dalvin Cook and seeing this offense as potentially one of the more potent in the NFL. And for all his faults, Cousins has been consistent and finds ways to get his targets the ball. Kevin O’Connell could help this team give Green Bay a real challenge.

And Minnesota might not be the only team giving the Packers a challenge. No, the Lions probably won’t be a serious threat to win the division, at only 5 percent odds to win the North, but they should be better than they have been in recent years. It doesn’t take a lot of squinting to see the semblance of a strong offensive core with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, T.J. Hockenson and a sturdy offensive line with Evan Brown, Penei Sewell, Jonah Jackson and Taylor Decker. Even on defense, Aidan Hutchinson arrives with plenty of hype, and Jeffrey Okudah should be healthy and ready for a full season for one of the first times in his career. This could be a fun year of growth for the Lions as they continue to improve.

Bears fans would like for this to be a fun year. But it’s not shaping up that way. Instead of surrounding Justin Fields with weapons, Chicago arguably has the worst group of receivers in the NFL, and an offensive line that was a major problem in 2021. It wasn’t until the third round of the 2022 draft that the Bears even spent a pick on offense as they instead used both second-round selections on defense. Speaking of, that area shouldn’t be much better, as now Khalil Mack is off to Los Angeles, testing the depth of the pass-rush and putting more pressure on Robert Quinn and Trevis Gipson. The model expects them to be one of the worst teams in the league on both sides of the ball.

Team	Division Winner	Wild card	No. 1 seed	Miss playoffs
Packers	66%	17%	14%	17%
Vikings	29%	28%	4%	43%
Lions	5%	9%	0%	87%
Bears	0%	0%	0%	100%

 

NFC South

1. Buccaneers (12-5)
2. Saints (10-7)
3. Panthers (6-11)
4. Falcons (4-12)

Without Tom Brady, it’s a much different picture for the Buccaneers. But despite announcing his retirement and then some preseason drama, Brady is back to lead this offense, which means the sky is the limit for this team’s potential. Losing tight end Rob Gronkowski to retirement, guards Alex Cappa and Ali Marpet to free agency and Ryan Jensen to injuries certainly hurt, but bringing in guard Shaq Mason and wide receiver Julio Jones helps address some of the concerns on offense. Defensively, this unit remains as strong as ever, led by Lavonte David, Saquil Barrett and Antoine Winfield Jr. No team in the NFC is a bigger favorite to win the division than the Buccaneers. How high is the model on Tampa Bay? That will require some reading a little further down in the playoff section to see what it thinks of Tampa Bay.

Only one team has given Brady fits since he came to Tampa Bay, and that’s the Saints. They’ve won all four regular-season matchups against Tompa Bay, and the model expects them to remain a thorn in his side in 2022 as well. Jameis Winston was a surprising bright spot for New Orleans before his injury, and the model likes what he can do leading the offense with Michael Thomas, Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry in the fold. But it’s really the defense where New Orleans stands out. Pete Werner was the latest rookie defensive pick to hit for the Saints, and he joins a dangerous front seven that includes Marcus Davenport, Demario Davis and Cameron Jordan for another year. Marcus Lattimore and Tyrann Mathieu should be dynamic in the backfield. The Saints are the only team with a real shot at chasing down Tampa Bay, and stand a good shot at reaching the playoffs even if they don’t win the division.

We say a real shot for the Saints, because one team technically also has a percentage chance to win the division. And that’s the Panthers. It’s not hard to see them having a better season than before. They’re going from Sam Darnold to Baker Mayfield at quarterback, and Mayfield has plenty of weapons at his disposal with Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore and Robbie Anderson all looking like standout weapons in the passing game. The offensive line has some questions, but tackle Ikem Ekwonu is hoping to resolve at least some of those. The defense was pedestrian in 2021, and expectations are still low heading into 2022, but if players like Brian Burns, C.J. Henderson and Jaycee Horn play well, they could certainly be better than some would think heading into the season.

Add the Falcons to the list of teams competing for a high draft pick in 2022. One of only five teams with a 0 percent chance to make the playoffs, it’s clearly a rebuilding year in Atlanta. If nothing else, there are players that will play a big factor in that rebuild that could be fun to watch. Kyle Pitts is already one of the best tight ends in the league, and expectations are sky high for Drake London in his rookie season. A.J. Terrell has already established himself as a shutdown corner. But the model sees this offense as ineffective led by Marcus Mariota and the defense as porous. Maybe fans can see what Desmond Ridder can offer at some point this season.

Team	Division Winner	Wild card	No. 1 seed	Miss playoffs
Buccaneers	77%	16%	26%	8%
Saints	22%	36%	5%	41%
Panthers	1%	5%	0%	94%
Falcons	0%	0%	0%	100%

 

NFC West

1. Rams (11-6)
2. 49ers (11-6)
3. Cardinals (10-7)
4. Seahawks (4-12)

Like it’s AFC counterpart, the West is the best in the NFC. This division is expected to, once again, be led by the Rams. The reigning Super Bowl champions might have lost Odell Beckham and Von Bell, but Bobby Wagner came over to join an already vaunted defense to play along with Jalen Ramsey, Aaron Donald and Jordan Fuller in a unit the model expects will still be dominant in 2022. That’s to say nothing of the offense, which returns reigning receiving triple crown winner Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford. The free agent signing of Allen Robinson II should bolster that receiving depth with Van Jefferson rounding out the room. It’s going to be a fight to hold onto the division for a second straight season, but the model thinks the Rams have more than enough talent do do just that.

There aren’t many who know exactly what to expect out of the 49ers and new quarterback Trey Lance in his first year as the starter, but the model likes them in spite of that uncertainty under center. It starts with the defense. There’s star talent with guys like Nick Bosa, Fred Warner and Arik Armstead, and there’s depth at each position, with the team poised to still be strong even if there are injuries at key positions. This is going to be one of the best defenses in the league. Lance could be really good, really bad or somewhere in between during his rookie season, but he’s got pieces around him to help limit that variability, as he has receivers like George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk and a stout offensive line, led by Trent Williams. This team looks like a legit playoff contender. Lance’s performance is the chief determinant in how far this team goes.

The Cardinals sustained a blow to their offense with DeAndre Hopkins out for the first six games of the season, but acquiring Brown helps keep them in the playoff picture. When Hopkins returns from his suspension, this offense all of a sudden looks dangerous, with Kyler Murray throwing to Hopkins, Brown, Rondale Moore and Zach Ertz, along with James Conner rushing out of the backfield. The defense is where it starts to get a bit more dicey, as the unit was only average last year, and will need to be much better if it’s going to make it back to the postseason. But Arizona could make things interesting this year, both in the race for the division title and for a wild card.

At least there’s Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf, right? The Seahawks are entering a rebuilding year in their first year without Wilson under center since 2011, and by all accounts, this is not going to be a great season. Despite that dynamic duo of wide receivers, the passing game looks like a problem with a battle between Geno Smith and Drew Lock for the starting quarterback role. Rashaad Penny and Kenneth Walker make for an interesting running back pairing, but they could struggle behind a shaky offensive line. The defense was improved last season, but losing D.J. Reed and Wagner hurts. The big question now is who will be the next franchise QB in Seattle.

Team	Division Winner	Wild card	No. 1 seed	Miss playoffs
Rams	40%	36%	10%	24%
49ers	36%	38%	9%	27%
Cardinals	24%	36%	5%	40%
Seahawks	0%	0%	0%	100%

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AFC playoff predictions

• Division winners: Bills (1), Chargers (2), Ravens (3), Colts (4)
• Wild cards: Bengals (5), Chiefs (6), Broncos (7)

The offseason was particularly hectic in the AFC, and it shows in the projected playoff field. Taking a look at the teams with the seven best odds of reaching the postseason, there are four teams that missed the playoffs in 2021 that crack the field at the end of this upcoming season. The only current projected returners are the Bills, Bengals and Chiefs.

There are several teams that just missed that still make the playoffs frequently in simulations. The Titans and Patriots each make the postseason in more than 40 percent of simulations, and the Raiders and Dolphins each clock in above 20 percent. It would not be surprising to see any of those four crack the postseason.

Buffalo is the clear, runaway favorite to win the AFC in 2022. Their ratings on offense and defense would make them a head-to-head favorite against any team on a neutral field, as they look the most complete team in the NFL. The Chargers and Chiefs each stand strong odds of coming out on top in the vaunted AFC as well, and despite being less likely to win the AFC North, the Bengals are slightly more likely to win the AFC. They can thank their brutal regular-season schedule for having to enter the playoffs as a wild card team.

Team	Win Conference
Bills	36%
Chargers	14%
Chiefs	13%
Bengals	9%
Ravens	9%
Colts	5%
Broncos	5%
Titans	3%
Patriots	3%
Raiders	1%
Dolphins	1%
Browns	<1%
Steelers	<1%

NFC playoff predictions

• Division winners: Buccaneers (1), Cowboys (2), Packers (3), Rams (4)
• Wild cards: Eagles (5), 49ers (6), Cardinals (7)

Look familiar? The model expects last year’s group of teams that went to the playoffs to be the same in 2022, this time just re-ordered a bit. Just like last year, the NFC West is expected to be well represented in the playoffs. After sending three teams to the postseason in 2021, the division appears poised to do so again, with the Rams, 49ers and Cardinals each having among the top-seven odds to reach the NFC playoffs.

There are two teams that just missed the cut: the Saints and the Vikings. The Saints are expected to be right in the thick of things backed by its defense and weapons out wide. If they make it to the postseason, they could make some noise in the NFC. The Vikings’ best chances of reaching the playoffs are by winning the division, but in a year where their offensive weapons far out-match Green Bay’s, it could happen. Like New Orleans, there’s a lot of reasons to think they could be scary to match up with in January.

The Buccaneers were the heaviest division favorite in the NFC, and the model thinks they’ll do more than just win the South. Tampa Bay is currently listed as a noticeable favorite to win the conference, coming in nearly twice as likely as the reigning NFC champion Rams and the Rodgers-led Packers.

Team	Win Conference
Buccaneers	27%
Rams	15%
Packers	13%
Cowboys	13%
49ers	11%
Cardinals	7%
Eagles	6%
Saints	5%
Vikings	3%
Commanders	<1%
Lions	<1%
Panthers	<1%

Super Bowl 57 prediction

It should come as no surprise that it is the Bills and the Buccaneers, and everyone else. The two teams have entered this year as heavy betting favorites, and it would appear for good reason, as the model has the two of them as the most likely teams to win a title by a comfortable margin.

Some other interesting notes on the Super Bowl odds. Given that the NFC is so top-heavy, teams from that conference seem to have better Super Bowl odds than the AFC, where there is a wider array of loaded teams. Despite the fact that the model would favor the Chiefs, Chargers and Bengals in a head-to-head matchup with either the Packers or Cowboys on a neutral site, those AFC teams have a gauntlet just to make it to the big game.

There are a handful of teams that were seen in at least one simulation winning the Super Bowl that certainly seem unlikely. Could the year end with Goff, Trubisky, Wentz or Mayfield hoisting the Lombardi Trophy and out-lasting significantly better quarterbacks? The model says at least on a few occasions, it could happen. Yes, Lloyd, we’re telling you there’s a chance.

Team	Win Super Bowl
Bills	14%
Buccaneers	12%
Rams	7%
Packers	7%
Cowboys	7%
Chargers	6%
Chiefs	6%
49ers	6%
Bengals	5%
Ravens	5%
Cardinals	4%
Eagles	4%
Colts	3%
Saints	3%
Broncos	3%
Vikings	2%
Titans	2%
Patriots	2%
Dolphins	1%
Raiders	1%
Browns	<1%
Commanders	<1%
Lions	<1%
Steelers	<1%
Panthers	<1%

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