NFL Rookie of the Year Odds 2022: Favorites, sleepers, long shots to win Offensive ROY

The NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds markets can change on a dime during the regular season. In seasons past, we’ve seen numerous big-name rookies flash in the early season, like Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase and Chargers QB Justin Herbert, resulting in those players taking home the award. All it takes is one big performance for a dramatic odds shift, causing a sleeper to become a favorite.

From the outset, the 2022 season feels a bit different, as there’s a good deal of uncertainty surrounding which first-year pros will put forth a ROY-caliber season. Some rookies have clearly defined roles entering the regular season; many don’t. By taking a quick glance at the odds board, we can see that numerous rookies’ odds are either too high or too low based on their projected playing time situations. 

Below, we’ll break down a couple of favorites, sleepers, and long shots who provide betting value that could take home the offensive Rookie of the Year in 2022-23.

MORE NFL BETTING: Best Bets for 2022 | Every team’s win total O/U pick

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds: Top 35

All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds 2022: Kenny Pickett, George Pickens among favorites

Kenny Pickett, QB, Steelers +900 (implied probability 10.00 percent)

Pickett enters the season as the slight odds-on favorite over fellow Steeler George Pickens. It’s still unlikely Pickett wins the starting QB job out of training camp, but if the Mitchell Trubisky experiment doesn’t go well, Pickett could relieve him sooner than later.

He’s done his part throughout training camp and the preseason, entering Pittsburgh’s preseason finale completing 19-of-22 pass attempts for 181 yards with a 3:0 TD-to-INT rate. While he won’t wow you with his athleticism, Pickett’s one of those guys who plays his best when the lights are the brightest. His accuracy and ability to make the right reads could lead him to an effective rookie season that results in a Rookie of the Year award. Once Pickett assumes QB1 duties, his odds to win Rookie of the Year will decrease dramatically. 

Highest passer rating among all rookies in a single preseason since 2015:

1. @KennyPickett10 (138.6)@steelers fans you got a good one 👏 pic.twitter.com/o5GymUBqWo

— NFL GameDay (@NFLGameDay) August 25, 2022

George Pickens, WR, Steelers +1000 (implied probability 9.09 percent)

The 11th WR taken in this year’s draft starts the season with the best odds to win the Rookie of the Year award. Pickens’ impressive preseason week 1 performance coupled with him being projected as Pittsburgh’s No. 2 receiver behind Diontae Johnson has made bettors enticed to wager on him to take home ROY honors. 

He definitely shouldn’t have slipped to the late second round, and while Pickens is certainly making the most out of his opportunity, recency bias is playing a part in his 10-1 pricing. He’s a bit overvalued at the moment, but given how often this market will shift, there’s likely going to be an opportunity to buy low on Pickens to win O-ROY. Now’s just not that time.

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds 2022: Drake London, Dameon Pierce stand out as value sleepers

Drake London, WR, Falcons +1200 (implied probability 7.69 percent)

London makes a real case to be the odds-on favorite to win O-ROY entering the regular season. A knee injury in the first quarter of Atlanta’s first exhibition game cut London’s preseason short, but he’s expected to be on the field when the Falcons host the Saints in Week 1.

London’s Atlanta’s clear-cut WR1 and No. 2 passing option in the offense behind TE Kyle Pitts. His ability to make plays all over the field and run a complete route tree can result in him leading all rookies in receptions and receiving yards. He has WR2 upside in fantasy leagues and is a worthwhile bet here at 12-1.

Dameon Pierce, RB, Texans +1700 (implied probability 5.56 percent)

Pierce is moving rapidly up the odds board, as he’ll likely lead the Texans’ backfield on early downs to start the regular season. Pierce has put forth two impressive preseason performances in the two games he’s played, totaling 86 rushing yards on 11 carries and one TD. The preseason stat line is nice, but it’s more about his opportunity in Houston’s offense that could result in an O-ROY season from the 5-10, 218-pound tailback. 

His vision and ability to make quick cuts has led him to vault up the Texans’ depth chart. Even with Houston projected as the AFC South bottom feeder, Pierce can garner a large enough workload to end the season as the frontrunner for Offensive Rookie of the Year. 

Dameon Pierce vs 49ers

💥 6 carries
💥 37 yards
💥 1 TD
💥 6.2 yards per carry

DRAFT HIM 🗣 pic.twitter.com/JeUQxQBI0D

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) August 26, 2022

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds 2022: Alex Pierce, Wan’Dale Robinson among long shots

Alec Pierce, WR, Colts +3000 (implied probability 3.23 percent)

Relative to some other wide receivers, Pierce’s odds to win O-ROY seem a bit low. Pierce is likely to assume the WR2 role in Indianapolis, and with it comes a high snap percentage and an opportunity for a solid rookie season. 

The Cincinnati product could also emerge as Colt’s go-to receiving threat in the red zone, as he can out-physical cornerbacks and high-point the football. Don’t be surprised to see Pierce’s price decrease throughout the regular season.

Wan’Dale Robinson, WR, Giants +6000 (implied probability 1.64 percent)

Robinson’s another WR who’s mispriced given his projected usage in year one. The second-round pick will likely see a high snap share this season for the G-Men, even if it doesn’t happen right away. He’s not likely to have a high average depth of target (aDOT), but with his shiftiness, as long as he has the ball in his hands he’s capable of making a big play. Take a flier on Robinson to win offensive rookie of the year at 60-1.