The quarterback class from the 2021 NFL Draft hasn’t dazzled much as a whole with five out of 10 starting for their teams in 2022. With Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa standing out as impressive Round 1 picks from ’20 and Kenny Pickett flashing as a rookie, the jury’s still out on shaky sophomores.
After Trey Lance went down for the 49ers with an ankle injury in Week 2, Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Mac Jones and non first-rounder Davis Mills are trying to prove they can be long-term franchise passers.
Removing Lance the rest of the class — Kyle Trask, Kellen Mond, Ian Book, Sam Ehlinger — from the equation, here are our grades for how the five have done this season, led by the QB who went first:
NFL Year 2 QB rankings
1. Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars (Round 1, No. 1 overall)
Grade: B-
Key stats: 155 of 246 passing, 63.0 completion percentage, 1,707 passing yards, 243.9 yards per game, 6.9 yards per attempt, 9 TDs, 4 INTs, 84 rushing yards, 3 TDs, 88.9 passer rating
Lawrence has looked a lot more comfortable in a legitimate modern, diverse NFL offense under Doug Pederson and Press Taylor. He’s still sorting issues with inaccuracy and inconsistency, making some great throws all over the field but also missing some easy ones.
He’s starting to get smarter about spreading the ball around and is wisely leaning on a reliable rushing attack, now featuring dynamic former Clemson teammate Travis Etienne Jr. Overall, the Jaguars have better flow and are much improved from a dysfunctional mess. Lawrence is being rebooted well but it’s a matter of gradual development and steady improvement.
2. Davis Mills, Texans (Round 3, No. 67 overall)
Grade: C-
Key stats: 132 of 207 passing, 63.8 completion percentage, 1,350 passing yards, 225 yards per game, 6.5 yards per attempt, 7 TDs, 5 INTs, 83.6 passer rating
Mills keeps showing off a strong arm, his calling card from Stanford. But it’s clear defenses have caught up to his pocket passing and he’s lost some accuracy and efficiency. He’s often being put in negative game scripts to face pressure in a one-dimensional offense, which hurts his decision-making. He’s gone from passable and promising to replaceable and regressing.
Mills will play out the string in 2022 and try to latch on as a career backup because the Texans should be eyeing a true franchise QB post-Deshaun Waston with multiple first-rounders in 2023.
3. Zach Wilson, Jets (Round 1, No. 2 overall)
Grade: C-
Key stats: 58 of 101 passing, 57.4 completion percentage, 693 passing yards, 173.2 yards per game, 6.9 yards per attempt, TD, 2 INTs, 42 yards rushing, TD, 73.6 passer rating
Wilson has had the best team success, going 4-0 in his healthy starts since returning from a preseason knee injury. He has taken command of the team with his intangibles and leadership while still settling in as a passer. Wilson is also a gamer who makes the critical plays needed with his feet.
The Jets are 5-2 overall with some AFC wild-card hopes, but it will be hard for their run-heavy defensive-minded formula to keep working after losing sensational rookie feature back Breece Hall to a knee injury. Wilson needs to throw the ball better and the Jets need to open up their passing game more with their wide receiver talent of rookie first-rounder Garrett Wilson, veteran Corey Davis and yes, second-year second-rounder Elijah Moore.
The good news is the Jets are winning while Zach Wilson still has plenty of room to improve and grow during the course of the season’s second half in Year 2 of a QB-friendly scheme under Mike LaFleur.
4. Justin Fields, Bears (Round 1, No. 1 overall)
Grade: D
Key stats: 63 of 115 passing, 54.5 completion percentage, 869 passing yards, 144.8 yards per game, 7.6 yards per attempt, 4 TDs, 5 INTs, 282 yards rushing, TD
Fields is learning his second new offense in as many seasons in the league. He’s starting full-time for the first time. He has little help from shaky receiving corps beyond Darnell Mooney and below-average pass protection. That’s not making excuses, but in relation to Lawrence, Wilson and heck, even Mills and Jones, he hasn’t had the best support system.
That said, when given some opportunities for favorable short-to-intermediate throws a run-heavy offense, Fields has been off. He’s hit on a few deep balls, but his accuracy and decision-making in other areas has failed him. He’s been saved a little by flashing his arm and his electrifying running skills. The Bears need to tap into more of those strengths and limit his weaknesses given the limitations of what’s around him. Fields needs to respond with more confidence in his skill and consistency in the second half to avoid already be written off as a draft bust.
5. Mac Jones, Patriots (Round 1, No. 15 overall)
Grade: D
Key stats: 64 of 97 passing, 66.0 completion percentage, 786 passing yards, 262 yards per game, 8.1 yards per attempt, 2 TDs, 5 INTs, 76.2 passer rating
Jones didn’t look good in his three starts before giving away to sharp rookie Bailey Zappe, who went 2-0 as a starter after a strong relief stint in the loss to the Packers. Jones will need to raise his game, stat, to avoid giving Bill Belichick more consideration to Zappe.
As they’ve expanded the passing volume for Jones to “take the next step” from his efficient Pro Bowl caretaking. He turned over the ball 16 times as rookie. He’s already has six giveaways in Year 2. He also has lost some mojo in a run-heavy offense no longer overseen by Josh McDaniels. The pressure is on to execute and cut down on the mistakes given how well Zappe threw downfield playing off the run in romps over the Lions and Browns.
Like Mills, Jones is learning that Year 2 is more challenging for a pocket passer when defenses have more film and ways to adjust to his skill set. In most situations, high-drafted second-year QBs wouldn’t need to look over their shoulders at green fourth-rounders. Jones needs to string together several get-well games and push the Patriots back to AFC wild-card contention to nail down his job again.
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